WTI crude oil futures are settling at $85.01, down $2.05 or 2.35% on the day. The low reached $84.36, while the high extended to $86.57.
Fundamentally, several factors helped pressure crude prices today.
First, there was some profit-taking following last week’s gains, particularly ahead of the U.S. announcement of additional sanctions against Iran.
Second, although the U.S. announced a new campaign aimed at further isolating Iran economically, the initial measures stopped short of immediately imposing tougher secondary sanctions on countries continuing to trade with Iran. That appears to have reduced fears that significant amounts of Iranian crude would suddenly disappear from the global market. Iran also continues to export oil to China despite existing U.S. sanctions.
Finally, the market continues to wrestle with softer demand expectations and rising U.S. inventories. Last week’s EIA report showed U.S. commercial crude inventories increasing by 4.4 million barrels versus expectations for a 600,000-barrel draw, while gasoline demand also softened. Both the IEA and OPEC have also recently lowered their 2026 oil-demand forecasts.
Technically, the decline leaves WTI in a more neutral position heading into the new trading day.
The price is settling between its 200-hour moving average at $84.07 and its 100-hour moving average at $85.49. The move back below the 100-hour MA gives sellers a slight edge in the short term, but staying above the 200-hour MA keeps them from taking firmer control.
A break below the 200-hour MA at $84.07, followed by the 50% midpoint of the move down from the July high at $83.89, would increase the bearish bias. Below those levels, the next major downside target comes in near $81.61.
Conversely, buyers would need to push the price back above the 100-hour MA at $85.49 to regain more control. That would put the 61.8% retracement at $86.17 back in play.
Above $86.17, attention would shift toward the 100-day moving average near $87.78. That level is particularly important after last Thursday’s high stalled at $87.67. The $87.67-$87.78 area therefore represents a key resistance zone if buyers can reestablish momentum.
For now, $84.07 below and $85.49 above are the technical guardrails. A break of either should help determine the next directional move.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.