- The US Treasury bought $5.187 billion in 10-20 year notes
- US treasury sells $22 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 5.308%
- EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -391K vs -1554K expected
- US wholesale inventories +1.3% in line with expectations
- US August existing home sales 3.98m vs 3.98m expected
- ECB’s Lagarde: The economy is proving resilient
- US August PPI 5.4% vs 5.3% expected
- Jobless claims show steady US employment picture. Initial claims 206K vs 205k estimate
- ECB hikes by 25 basis points, as expected
Markets:
- WTI crude oil up $6.67 to $102.72
- Gold down $78 to $4322
- US 10-year yields up 12 bps to 4.95%
- USD leads, AUD lags
- S&P 500 down 0.5%
This is one of those days where the hairline fractures in the market split open. Eyes were on PPI today but oil stole the show. Yesterday, Trump indicated that the Iran war wouldn’t end until after the midterms and that set off a scamble for supply and a ninth-consecutive day of crude buying. It hardly slowed at any point and crude rose 7%, blasting through $100 to as high as $103.06 and trading only marginally below that late in the day.
The climb in oil was compounded by a slightly hot PPI report but that number created some fresh angst into tomorrow’s pivotal CPI report. Fed pricing ahead of that is for a 70% chance of a hike. After CPI tomorrow it could be 40% or it could be 95%. Or the market could simply look ahead to the following report when these jumps in energy prices are going to be inflationary.
The Treasury market was unequivocal about the implications as yields rose 8-14 bps across the curve, led by the front end.
The ECB may have given a nudge towards the hawkish thinking at the Fed as Lagarde called the hike (which was expected) a no brainer and said growth had been surprisingly strong. The euro was reluctant to rise but ended in second place behind the dollar as we price in another hike this year.
The Australian dollar was under solid pressure as metals prices fell and risk aversion dominated. Copper quickly retreated from yesterday’s record high as fears about macro economic weakness hit.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.