- US September Philly Fed business index +37.8 vs +30.5 expected
- US August housing starts 1.275m vs 1.309m expected
- US initial jobless claims come in at 196K vs 208K estimate
- Canada August producer price index +1.3% m/m vs +0.6% prior
- BOE’s Bailey: Decision on rates will get more difficult the longer the Iran conflict continues
- US August pending home sales +0.3% vs -0.6% expected
- Former Atlanta Fed President: The inflation portion of the Fed mandate is far more concerning
- Trump says he faces a “big decision” on whether to launch new attacks on Iran
- China privately asks Iran to help rein in Houthis after Saudi appeal, sources say
Markets:
- Gold up $81 to $4343
- US 10-year yields down 9 bps to 4.93%
- WTI crude oil down $1.29 to $101.14
- AUD leads, USD lags
- S&P 500 up 1.1%
We unwound the Fed moves in stocks and gold today as the market reassessed the path for inflation and put its focus elsewhere. Triggering that was likely a fall in Treasury yields as the angst about the loss of Fed independence and runaway inflation faded. It took some time to digest the meeting but the tail risks now appear to be gone, or sidelined for the time being. The adults are still in the room at the FOMC and they made a unanimous decision despite their differences.
The dollar move hasn’t retraced though and didn’t give much back on the day. Some of that could have been money flowing back into tech stocks as a big risk passed. Intel soared on the day on a potential partnership with NK Hynix on US chip manufacturing for memory. An 18% jump in Generac also highlighted a widening AI boom while Micron climb in a return to the names that worked early in the year.
Behind some of the improvement is news that Trump’s administration will meet with Gulf countries in a bid to end the war. Trump seemed resigned to some kind of end game in comments, though he paired that with talk about annihilating the regime (didn’t he already try that in March?). The headlines created some minor drag on oil but the days of every Trump pronouncement on the war moving crude $3-$5 are over. For now that, just a day of steady oil prices was a step in the right direction.
Data showed that housing is going to struggle with higher rates and that’s one reason to think the hiking cycle will be short. However, initial jobles claims remain at rock bottom levels and that showed why the cycle could last.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.