The U.S. dollar is higher against all seven major currencies as the North American session approaches. The biggest move is against the Australian dollar, while the smallest is against the Canadian dollar.
Currency snapshot at 7:30 a.m. ET:
- AUDUSD: 0.7068 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.62%
- NZDUSD: 0.5693 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.56%
- GBPUSD: 1.3283 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.42%
- USDJPY: 157.91 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.34%
- EURUSD: 1.1410 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.32%
- USDCHF: 0.8226 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.26%
- USDCAD: 1.4087 — U.S. dollar higher by 0.18%
Middle East: talks begin, but risks remain
Yesterday’s UN meetings brought both a warning and a diplomatic opening. President Trump warned Iran of further military action if there is no deal. Later, U.S. and Iranian representatives communicated through mediators on the sidelines of the General Assembly. Iran has laid out conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but there is no agreement yet. Houthi activity in Yemen also remains a risk to Red Sea shipping. For oil traders, the issue is whether the talks lead to an agreement that improves the flow of energy through the region.
Stocks and Treasury yields
At 7:37 a.m. ET, U.S. stock futures were lower:
- Dow futures: −101 points
- Nasdaq futures: −94 points
- S&P futures: −5.64 points
Treasury yields were higher:
- 2-year: 4.787%, up about 1.0 basis point
- 5-year: 4.855%, up about 1.3 basis points
- 10-year: 4.978%, up about 1.1 basis points
- 30-year: 5.311%, up about 0.8 basis points
Commodities and Bitcoin
The commodity picture was mixed in the morning snapshot. Brent was higher, while WTI was modestly lower despite the continuing Middle East risks.
- Brent crude: $99.83, up 0.58%
- WTI crude: $90.28, down 0.27%
- Gold: Near $4,302, down about 1.3%
- Silver: Near $64.92, down about 1.3%
- Bitcoin: Near $85,521, down 0.79%
European PMIs: expansion continues, but the details are mixed
All eight flash PMI readings came in above 50, signaling expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors covered by the reports. That does not mean every sector gained momentum. Services improved in France, Germany and the eurozone, while manufacturing readings weakened in France and Germany.
- France manufacturing: 50.3 versus 50.9 expected; prior 51.1 — worse than prior
- France services: 51.4 versus 48.3 expected; prior 48.0 — better than prior
- Germany manufacturing: 53.8 versus 54.1 expected; prior 54.3 — worse than prior
- Germany services: 52.9 versus 49.9 expected; prior 49.7 — better than prior
- Eurozone manufacturing: 52.7 versus 52.6 expected; prior 52.7 — unchanged from prior
- Eurozone services: 53.0 versus 51.4 expected; prior 51.6 — better than prior
- UK manufacturing: 52.0 versus 51.5 expected; prior 51.7 — better than prior
- UK services: 51.7 versus 52.0 expected; prior 52.5 — worse than prior
Ahead: U.S. flash PMIs at 9:45 a.m. ET
Both U.S. manufacturing and services are expected to remain above 50, although the forecasts are slightly below the prior readings. I will also be watching the details on prices and employment for what they may mean for Treasury yields and the dollar.
- Manufacturing PMI: 53.6 expected versus 53.9 prior
- Services PMI: 56.0 expected versus 56.5 prior
- Composite PMI: No forecast shown; prior 56.0
In the Kickstart video, I take a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.