FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
Crude oil extended
the gains yesterday as short-covering continued after Trump poured cold water
on expectations of an earlier end to the Iran war. As a reminder, oil prices
have been on a sustained downtrend recently on growing expectations
of a de-escalation and improvements on Saudi Arabia oil pipeline and exports
side. At the UN General Assembly, though, Trump repeated that the US would make
a deal with Iran after the November elections.
Traders started to reprice earlier expectations and oil prices began
rising again. This morning, we’ve also got a key technical breakout on WTI oil
which increased the bullish momentum and opened the door for a move back above
the $100 level.
Keep in mind that Trump is facing many constraints at
the moment, so an end to the war is more likely than not, but the only question
is the timeline. If the markets start to sense an earlier end or we get a
surprising breakthrough, then we can expect crude oil to resume the decline.
Conversely, if things remain unchanged or even re-escalate, we can expect WTI
oil to stay supported into new highs.
CRUDE OIL
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil(CFD contract) rose back
above the major zone around the 93.00 level and it’s now extending the gains. The
buyers will likely pile in around these levels with a defined risk below the
support to position for a rally back into the 105.00 resistance. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 93.00 zone
to pile in for a drop into the lower bound of the channel around the 85.00
level.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the price broke above the downward trendline that was defining the bearish
momentum. The buyers are piling in on the break to target a rally back into the
105.00 resistance, while the sellers will need the price to fall back below the
trendline and the 93.00 zone to regain some control and target new lows.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor upward trendline now defining the bullish momentum. If we get a
pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk
below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will
look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into new lows. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today, we have the Trump-Xi
meeting and the US Jobless Claims data, but the focus will remain on US-Iran developments.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.