- Prior month 0.6%
- The advanced August reading comes in at 1.3%
Details from Statistics Canada:
- Retail sales:−0.7% to C$73.7 billion vs −0.8% expected. Prior +0.6%.
- Retail sales excluding autos:−0.7% vs −0.5% expected. Prior +0.5%.
- Core retail sales:−0.7% after +1.2% in June. This measure excludes both autos and gasoline.
- Sales volume:−1.1%.
Canadian retail sales fell slightly less than expected in July, but the details were weaker. According to Statistics Canada’s July retail sales report, sales declined in eight of nine subsectors. The larger drop in volume than in dollar sales suggests consumers bought fewer goods, rather than the decline simply reflecting lower prices.
July components compared with June:
- General merchandise retailers: −1.9% vs +2.5%
- Motor vehicle and parts dealers: −0.8%; new car dealers fell 1.3%, while used car dealers rose 2.9%
- Gasoline stations and fuel vendors: −0.9%; sales volume fell 3.5%
- Building material and garden equipment dealers: +0.8%, their fourth consecutive monthly gain
Ontario posted the largest provincial decline in dollar terms, down 2.0%, while Alberta rose 1.4%. Retail e-commerce sales fell 3.5% and accounted for 7.5% of total retail trade, down from 7.7% in June.
Quick analysis: The headline narrowly beat expectations, but the decline in core sales and the 1.1% drop in volume point to softer consumer demand in July. That could modestly ease pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten policy and, on its own, would normally be a headwind for the Canadian dollar. There is an important offset: Statistics Canada’s early estimate points to a 1.3% rebound in August. That estimate is based on responses from 57.8% of surveyed companies and remains subject to revision.
What this report measures: Retail sales track the monthly value of goods sold by Canadian retailers. Traders watch both dollar sales and inflation-adjusted volume for clues about consumer demand and economic growth. Statistics Canada’s advance estimate offers an early look at the following month and can change when more responses arrive.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.