The Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0%, as expected. It raised its inflation forecasts slightly, but still expects inflation to average just 0.8% in both 2027 and 2028. Higher energy prices have lifted inflation recently, while the SNB sees only a small increase in medium-term pressure. That gives the bank little reason, for now, to follow the Fed toward tighter policy. (snb.ch)
There was a change in the SNB’s language on the Swiss franc. It dropped June’s reference to an “increased willingness” to intervene in the foreign exchange market. It now says it is “willing to be active” as necessary. Intervention is still on the table, but the change suggests less urgency about franc strength. The franc weakened after the decision, with EURCHF moving from around 0.9380 to 0.9420. Justin Low has more on the decision here. (snb.ch)
For USDCHF, the fundamental contrast favors the dollar: the SNB is holding at zero while the Fed has left the door open to further hikes. Higher US yields can make dollar assets more attractive relative to franc assets. That helps explain the move, but it does not tell traders where to enter or where the bullish case begins to fail. For that, we turn to the chart.
Buyers defended a key support area
On the daily chart, USDCHF dipped on Monday and into Tuesday, but the decline found buyers within a swing area between 0.81706 and 0.82148. The 38.2% retracement of the decline from the January 2025 high to the January 2026 low, at 0.82116, sits inside that area.
When several technical levels gather in one area, traders often pay closer attention to it. In this case, buyers had a defined place to lean: if the price held support, they could look for a rebound; if it broke below the area, they would have a reason to reassess.
Support held. Yesterday’s sharp rise in US yields then helped push USDCHF above the top of the swing area at 0.82148. Today, the pair extended above its earlier September highs near 0.8265. Each step gave buyers more control.
What next for USDCHF?
The next upside target is the late-May 2025 high near 0.8348. A sustained move above that level would put the 50% retracement of the decline from the January 2025 high in focus. That would be another test of whether buyers can maintain momentum.
On the downside, a move back below 0.82116 would be an initial warning that the breakout is losing strength. A fall below the swing area low at 0.81706 would be a more consequential shift: buyers who leaned against that support would no longer have the same technical footing. Those levels give traders a way to measure risk rather than relying on the central-bank story alone.
In the video above, I walk through these levels on the chart and explain what a move through each one would mean for buyers and sellers.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.