In this post yesterday, I showed a chart and outlined a key target.
I commented in the post:
The next upside target
On the topside, the upper channel trendline points toward the next swing area at 1.41297–1.41488. That is the next target for buyers if the price can stay above 1.4080.
If USDCAD can move above that swing area, it would enter the broader consolidation area that reached 1.42474 on June 24. That June high was the highest level since April 8, 2025.
USDCAD held support at 1.4080 yesterday and moved higher. The momentum continued today, taking the price into the next swing area between 1.41297 and 1.41488. The high reached 1.41490, barely above the top of that area, before the price turned lower (see the chart currently below) .
That raises the question: Is the high in place? The stall gives sellers a reason to act, but they still need to prove they can push the price lower.
What would give sellers more control?
A move back below 1.41297, followed by the price staying below it, would put the upward-sloping trend line near 1.4100 in focus. A break below that line would shift attention to the 100-hour moving average at 1.4057.
What would keep buyers in control?
If USDCAD moves back above 1.41488 and stays above it, today’s stall would lose significance. The upward trend would remain intact, with the prior consolidation area extending toward 1.42474 back in play.
The trading lesson: let price confirm the turn
One of the lessons in Attacking Currency Trends is that trends can be fast, directional and go farther than traders expect. Reaching a target does not, by itself, mean the trend is over.
What the swing area does provide is a place to define risk. Sellers can lean against the high and know where their bearish view is wrong. Buyers can watch for a move back above it to show that the trend still has strength. For now, the 1.41297–1.41488 area is the barometer. Stay below and a corrective move can begin.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.