Nasdaq 100 rebound hits resistance: Is a retest lower still ahead?
The Nasdaq 100 has climbed strongly from its late-July low, but the rebound has reached a level where the market needs to prove it can do more than make a quick visit. NDX stalled near 30,760-30,770, close to its June peak, and ended September 24 at about 30,479. The broader trend remains constructive, but the near-term balance leans slightly toward another pullback test before buyers can claim a fresh leg higher.
That is a lean, not a call that the index must fall. The data available here ends at the September 24 close, so this is the setup heading into September 25, not a live update. Let’s dive into my very simple 4h chart of NDX before the index opens for trading today, 25 Sept 2026 (which is also a close of today’s weekly candle, at its upcoming daily close).
Buyers showed up for Nasdaq yesterday, but the rebound still has work to do
The September 24 session offered a useful snapshot of the tug-of-war. NDX dipped to around 30,204, then recovered toward 30,479. Hourly buying pressure was positive through much of that rebound, and trading activity shifted toward higher prices as the session progressed.
But the recovery ran into difficulty around 30,500-30,530. The final hourly bar recorded roughly -$30.2 million in delta, a measure of the difference between aggressive buying and selling, while the index held near 30,479.
That combination deserves a measured reading. Sellers were active, but price did not fall sharply alongside them. This can be consistent with selling being absorbed, though it does not identify who was on the other side or prove buyers have regained control. For traders, the more useful follow-up is whether price can hold above the recovery barrier or slips back toward support.
Educational pointer: Delta describes aggressive orders hitting the market. It does not tell the whole story by itself. If selling is heavy but price remains stable, it may mean buyers are meeting that supply. If price then breaks support, however, the selling has started to have an effect.
For Nasdaq 100, the bigger trend is healthier than the short-term picture
That does not mean short traders won’t see reasons to be short here today. The rally had a strong start. On September 18, NDX traded on unusually high volume and closed near the top of its session range, then continued higher on September 21 and 22. The September 23 decline interrupted that advance. On September 24, buyers repaired some of the damage, but on lighter volume.
So far, that sequence looks more like a pause and attempted repair than clear evidence that the broader advance has failed. Still, lighter-volume recovery is not the same as renewed buying conviction. The index needs to reclaim nearby resistance and show that it can stay above it.
This is why the daily and shorter-term readings can differ without contradiction: the daily structure can remain bullish while the near-term path still favors a retest lower.
Levels that could settle the argument
- 30,700-30,770: The main overhead test, including the recent high and the June peak area. A sustained move above it would make the recovery more convincing.
- 30,500-30,530: The first hurdle for buyers. Reclaiming and holding this area would improve the short-term picture.
- 30,350-30,400: A nearby pivot. Losing it after another rejection near 30,500 would put the September 24 low back in focus.
- 30,200-30,230: The area buyers defended on September 24. A sustained break below it would suggest that defense has failed.
- 29,750-29,900: A deeper area to watch if support gives way. It sits near prior consolidation and the pullback zone marked on the four-hour chart. Holding and rebounding there would be consistent with former resistance acting as support; trading below it for a sustained period would weaken the broader bullish structure.
Educational pointer: A resistance level is not overcome just because price briefly trades above it. Traders often look for acceptance: price holding beyond the level, or a successful return to test it without quickly falling back. The same idea applies to support. A brief dip below a zone and a sustained break are not necessarily the same thing.
The near-term balance still favors patience and bears may be better than bulls today
The slightly favored near-term path is a retest lower if NDX again fails around 30,500-30,530, particularly if it then loses 30,350-30,400. That could bring 30,200-30,230 into play. A sustained break below that area would increase the risk of a deeper move toward 29,750-29,900.
The bullish alternative remains open. Holding above 30,200, reclaiming 30,530 and then establishing acceptance above 30,770 would provide progressively stronger evidence that buyers are back in charge.
Until price does one of those things, the middle of the range may offer less clarity than either edge. The September 24 rebound showed that buyers were willing to defend 30,200, but the stall near 30,500 showed that sellers had not gone away. The next useful signal is whether buying can carry price through that barrier, or whether the market has to check lower first. And what happens if we do get a retest (see my NDX chart above)? It does not mean that we will automatically bounce up but previous short sellers would probably find that zone as legit for partial profit taking, meaning short covering, meaning some buying pressure (even temporary). If one was shorting from before, one could consider taking some partial profits there, too. What else? Watch how price will react to that retest, if it comes.
Always trade and invest in Nasdaq at your own risk only. The above are opinions and should be viewed for educational purposes only, this is not financial advice. Have a good one and visit investingLive.com for additional views.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.