Headlines:
- Zcash remains supported by idiosyncratic catalysts, but macro headwinds limit further gains. What’s next?
- Euro area economic sentiment slips in September as inflation expectations rise
- Silver remains at risk of further downside as US-Iran talks take centre stage
- AUD/USD risks bigger breakdown below 0.7000 as RBA rate hike fails to lift aussie
- Ethereum is coiling for a breakout amid US-Iran tensions: Where will it go?
- European stock market open: Stocks edge higher but surging yields keep pressure on the risk mood
- Gold selloff pauses as US-Iran talks revive deal hopes. What to watch next?
- Spain inflation climbs to near 5%, the highest in over three years
- What are the main events for today?
- RBA governor Bullock plays down August CPI, shifts focus to rate-hike lag
- RBA governor Bullock reaffirms that the central bank will raise interest rates again if needed
- Iran expects US response today on Hormuz proposal as oil prices climb again
- FX option expiries for 29 September 10am New York cut
- RBA raises cash rate by 25 bps to 4.60%, highest since 2011
Markets:
- Gold up 1.00% to $4,154
- WTI crude down -0.83% to $91.84
- JPY leads, AUD lags on the day
- 10-year Treasury yields down 1.4 bps to 5.217%
- S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 7752.5
- Bitcoin up 0.63% to $84,028
The main highlight of the session was the RBA rate decision. The RBA unanimously raised the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.60%, citing the materialisation of some upside risks to inflation and the need for further tightening in financial conditions. However, the statement contained a subtle dovish shift in its forward guidance. The Bank removed its previous reference to inflation returning to the midpoint of the target range in late 2027, instead saying that further tightening is warranted to bring inflation back to target within a “reasonable period.” It also changed its guidance on future hikes from raising rates if upside risks materialise to doing so “if needed,” suggesting a higher hurdle for additional tightening.
Governor Bullock reinforced that message in her press conference. She said the RBA considered only holding rates or hiking by 25 bps at this meeting, while acknowledging that inflationary pressures are likely to last longer than previously expected. At the same time, she stressed that monetary policy works with a 12–18 month lag and that the full impact of the hikes already delivered has yet to pass through the economy. She also said that if inflation continues to fall, no further hikes may be needed, while a recession is not the central case. This suggests the RBA increasingly prefers to wait and assess the effect of existing tightening rather than automatically respond to every strong inflation reading.
The Bank is therefore keeping another hike on the table, but without committing to one. Tomorrow’s August CPI will remain important, but Bullock explicitly cautioned against placing too much weight on a single monthly reading. Overall, the RBA’s message is becoming less inclined toward further tightening but still prepared to act if inflation pressures persist.
In the markets, we’ve been seeing some tentatively optimistic price action, with oil prices falling steadily throughout the session on hopes of some kind of deal from the ongoing US-Iran talks. As a reminder, the Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he expected a formal answer today to Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic sources to Al Hadath said that mediators are working on a US-Iranian understanding that paves the way for reviving the Islamabad MoU. However, Washington And Tehran feel “frustration over the results of the current negotiations”.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.