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- Trump says Russia, Ukraine agree energy ceasefire two days after Russian diesel deal
- Houthi strike on Riyadh airport kills 13, group claims Aramco hits. Saudi, Iran talking now.
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Summary:
- Houthis claimed a deadly strike on Riyadh’s airport and attacks on Dammam airport and two Aramco facilities; Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers held their first reported talks since the escalation
- Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, but Kyiv said Russia struck power plants within hours and the Kremlin has not commented
- Some Republican lawmakers joined Democrats in criticising the Russian diesel deal as a financial lifeline to Moscow and a breach of US law
- Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban, clearing 500,000 tons, while the IEA urged members to speed up emergency diesel releases
- Oil edged lower and gold climbed back above $4,200
- Japan was closed for a holiday; US equities trade Monday but the cash Treasury market is shut
- The PBOC set its strongest yuan reference rate since February 2023 and the offshore yuan hit its strongest since 2022
- The rupee rallied after the RBI unveiled one of its largest currency-support packages since 2013
- TSMC reports third-quarter results on Thursday
Saudi Arabia
Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh’s international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, the third attack on the airport in a week. Saudi authorities reported further injuries in a new attack on Sunday, and the Houthis said they had also struck Dammam’s King Fahd International Airport and two Saudi Aramco facilities. Saudi aviation authorities confirmed the Dammam strike, while Aramco did not comment, leaving the claims on oil facilities unverified. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister later spoke with his Iranian counterpart about de-escalation, their first publicly reported contact since the Houthi strikes intensified.
Russia, Ukraine and diesel
US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed an immediate energy ceasefire. Questions emerged quickly: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia struck a power plant in Kharkiv and another in Kyiv within hours, and the Kremlin has not publicly confirmed it agreed to the truce. Zelenskyy said Ukraine would halt strikes on Russian energy facilities if Russia did the same.
The truce followed Friday’s deal for Russia to supply diesel to the US and global markets. Some members of Trump’s own Republican Party joined Democrats in criticising the arrangement, describing it as a financial lifeline to the Russian government and arguing that it breaches US law. Moscow partially lifted its diesel export ban on Saturday, clearing 500,000 tons for international buyers, with no shipping timeline given.
Separately, the International Energy Agency urged members that have not fully delivered stocks pledged under its March emergency release to accelerate them, with priority given to diesel, ahead of its governing board meeting on October 15. Executive Director Fatih Birol also asked all members to assess whether further diesel releases are needed.
Oil and gold
Oil prices eased slightly in Asian trade, while gold rose back above $4,200 an ounce. Throughout the Iran war, gold has tended to move inversely to oil, falling when higher energy prices lift inflation expectations and Federal Reserve hike bets, and rising when crude softens.
The US dollar weakened just a little. With Japn out there was no UST cash tradeoday.
Holidays
Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday. The US observes Columbus Day, with equities trading normally but the cash Treasury market closed, leaving liquidity thin into the US session.
China
The People’s Bank of China set its daily yuan reference rate at the strongest level since February 2, 2023, and the offshore yuan rose to its strongest against the dollar since 2022.
India
The rupee strengthened after the Reserve Bank of India unveiled one of its largest currency-support packages since 2013. Measures include a special dollar window for state oil companies and reserve requirements on certain foreign exchange derivatives, aimed at curbing a record surge in corporate hedging. The steps follow the rupee’s slide towards a record low near 97 per dollar and a policy rate increase by the RBI last week.
Still to come
TSMC reports third-quarter results on Thursday, with an earnings call at 06:00 GMT (2:00 am ET), and is expected to post a sixth straight quarter of record profit.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.