Gold got stuck in a consolidation around the 4,000
level as traders await the next key catalysts to pick a direction. The first
one is tomorrow’s FOMC decision where the Fed is widely expected to keep
interest rates unchanged and keep the current stance.
We could see a relief rebound if the Fed delivers on
expectations. If the Fed surprises with a rate hike, on the other hand, the
bearish pressure will likely increase.
The developments in the Middle East will also remain in
focus given the persistent risk of another military escalation between the US
and Iran.
Finally, the US midterm elections next week could be
another important catalyst for gold as a Democratic sweep may lead to a fall in
long-term Treasury yields on increased fiscal restraint, while keeping
inflation expectations high due to the Iran war.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold(CFD contract) is consolidating
around the 4,000 level ahead of the FOMC decision. If we get another flush
lower, we can expect the buyers to step in around the 3,885 support, with a
defined risk below the major trendline, to position for a rally into new record
highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the
trendline to increase the bearish bets into the 3,500 level next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action around the 4,000 level. If we get
a pullback into the 4,070 resistance, we can expect the sellers to step in there,
with a defined risk above the resistance, to keep targeting the 3,885 support.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
extend the pullback into the downward trendline next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor support zone around the 3,980 level where the price got rejected
from several times in the past few days. The sellers will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3,885 level, while the
buyers will likely step in there again, with a defined risk below the support,
to target a pullback into the 4,070 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Todaywe
get the US Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we have the FOMC rate
decision. On Thursday, we get the US GDP report, the US PCE and the latest US
Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Employment
Cost Index.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.