Market News

• Prior was +1.0%
• The advanced July reading was 0.8%
• Retail sales for June 0.6% vs 0.4% estimate
• Ex Autos for June 0.5% vs 0.4% estimate. Prior 1.2%.

The U.S. dollar is starting the day on the defensive, trading lower against all of the major currencies. The largest declines are against the AUD and NZD, which are higher by 0.77% and 0.67%, respectively. Against the EUR, JPY and GBP, the dollar is lower by around 0.20% to 0.30% to kickstart the trading day.

In today’s Kickstart video, I take a look at the key technical levels driving the major currency pairs and outline the bias, risk and targets — three things every trader should be aware of as the new trading day gets underway. 

U.S. Treasury yields are mixed and little changed to start the day, with rates generally sitting near the middle of this week’s volatile trading ranges.

The volatility this week has been particularly pronounced…

Headlines:

• Gold stays poised to post third straight week of gains
• US Treasury move risks creating unintended consequences for markets and the economy
• Why markets care more about the signal than the size of the Treasury buyback
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
• Stock market sector rotation explained: Where investors are moving their money now
• ECB's Kazāks says September decision will be based on data, adds there are pros and cons to hiking further
• French business activity contracts further in August as demand conditions remain subdued
• Germany August flash manufacturing PMI 54.1 vs 52.0 expected
• Euro area business activity sees further pick up in August despite France, Germany softness
• UK August flash services PMI…

If you ask any executive in the forex industry what they stand for, you will hear the same words. Everyone claims to be an honest forex broker. Everyone talks about transparency. But execution quality is not built on marketing phrases. It is built on the floor, decision by decision, week in and week out. It is a series of operational choices that define how you actually treat the traders putting their capital at risk on your platform.

If you really want to understand how A-Book brokers make money, you have to look at the work itself. Over the course of the A-Book STP series, we have talked a lot about the structures that govern execution. But today, I want to take you onto the operations floor. These are the six decisions we make on a…

We're seeing a return back to the Wednesday moves as traders are continuing to weigh the US Treasury decision to double long-term debt buybacks this week. While there is a good argument that the relief bought may be a short-term solution, that is not to say that the signaling will be so quickly undone.

Bessent doubled down with some verbal intervention yesterday and that continues to reaffirm their conviction in wanting markets to follow their signal.

And amid some key technical breaks in dollar pairs (as well as gold), we're seeing that continue to run in the final stretch of the week. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.1705 with buyers slowly inching towards a key test of 1.1800 down the road. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.4% to 158.48 and nearing…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.50%, Shanghai Composite up 0.01% Hang Seng up 0.71% ASX down 0.31%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,587.56 (0.35%) Silver at $68.845 (1.10%), Brent Oil at 93.65 (-0.13%), WTI Oil at 86.59 (-0.28%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.707, UK 10-year yield at 5.0700, Germany 10-year yield at 3.2555

• (USD)   Unemployment Claims
•   206K  to 210K  expected

Stock futures were little changed Thursday night after a sharp Wall Street sell-off pushed the major averages toward weekly losses.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures hovered around the flatline. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 1%. The moves left the S&P 500 down…

• Prior 52.1
• Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 51.5 expected
• Prior 51.9
• Composite PMI 52.5 vs 51.6 expected
• Prior 52.2

Comment:

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“The UK economy picked up a bit more pace in August, adding to signs that we should see solid economic growth of around 0.3% in the third quarter. The expansion is being helped by sunny weather and tech investment, though as expected we have seen some softening of growth in the manufacturing sector as precautionary stock building cools. This reflects easing concerns, for now, over the economic impact of the war in the Middle East. Businesses are feeling more upbeat than at any time since the war began. Job losses are also moderating.

"It’s clear,…

Bitcoin forecasts for 2027: One speculative fractal scenario maps a $148,000 peak

Bitcoin could approach $145,000-$150,000 around summer 2027 under one long-range chart scenario. The projection combines a repeated historical price pattern with an extended resistance line drawn across three major Bitcoin tops. However, this is a low-confidence scenario, not a trade plan or a claim that Bitcoin must follow the projected path.

Key takeaways from this Bitcoin forecast

• Projected peak: Approximately $148,000, potentially during summer 2027.
• Bitcoin price when the chart was created: Around $73,400 on August 21, 2026.
• Distance to the projected peak: Bitcoin was trading at roughly half the forecasted high, meaning the scenario implies approximately…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 21 August 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asian session had a mildly risk-off tone but was particularly positive for the Japanese yen. Strong Japanese inflation and a much stronger manufacturing PMI increased expectations of further BOJ tightening, supporting the yen and potentially putting pressure on USD/JPY and other yen crosses. At the same time, continued weakness in the U.S. dollar supported gold, AUD/USD and NZD/USD, while elevated oil prices and global bond yields continued to weigh on Asian equities. Japan’s Nikkei nevertheless rebounded during the session, helped by semiconductor strength and bargain hunting, although the index remained under pressure for the week.

What does it…