Market News

This is like the start of a sci-fi horror movie.

Reuters reports that six sets of independent researchers have discovered that OpenAI's rogue agents were running wild on the internet, communicating on 10 additional undisclosed websites.

"It's almost certain that there's more going on here that we just don't know about," said one of the researchers who found it. One estimated at least 23 sites.

Even worse, this was all back in May-June and OpenAI didn't disclose it.

The sites were communally edited wikis, online text storage sites, and link shorteners run byu Vanderbilt University and the University of Toronto.

What's terrifying is that the agents were told to only read on the internet but broke those rules and began posting and communicating.…

Traders use technical tools applied to the price action to determine whether the market bias is more bullish or more bearish. In my analysis, I consistently use the 100- and 200-hour moving averages as one of the limted amount of tools I use. 

Why?

Because traders around the world watch those moving averages when making trading decisions. They use them to determine the directional bias, identify potential targets and—most importantly—define and limit risk. Since so many traders are focused on the same levels, the moving averages often become key battlegrounds between buyers and sellers. That is a key belief for me and should be for you too. 

When the price moves below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, the short-term bias turns more…

So Bessent has decided he will play god in the FX and bond markets. The Treasury floated out at 'more than $4 billion' buyback last month and today we get the actual numbers. It's a $6 billion figure and that looks to be a dissapointing one. Not only that it's "up to $6 billion" so we have a limit.

There was talk of $10 billion, or even $12 billion.

The move will mean more t-bills and less long-dated Treasury supply in general, but not as much as feared. The 30-year is at a session high, up 3 bps to 5.29%.

I'm bid at 7%.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The trade war between the United States and Canada continues to escalate, but that has not translated into a higher USDCAD as most traders might expect.  .

Trade negotiations between the two countries broke down on August 21, leading the United States to impose 50% tariffs on about 5% of Canadian imports. Canada responded this week with tariffs of 15%, 25% or 50% on approximately $20 billion of U.S. goods.

President Trump has since increased the pressure by announcing restrictions on certain Canadian dairy products, motorcycles and most alcoholic beverages beginning September 29. He also directed the U.S. government to begin removing Canadian products from federal purchasing schedules unless Canada provides what he calls “full and fair…

$100 is the big psychological level in oil and we've broken it today in brent, though not yet in WTI. Technically though, the $93.50 level oil was flirting with yesterday is the more-important level. For a moment, it looked like crude could reject it but today it has cruised through.

WTI is trading up $2.85 at a session high of $95.81 per barrel. That clears the July high and marks a distinct series of higher lows since MOU peace deal low in early July.

Fundamentally, Trump has a real problem here and it's now slowing down. The rumors of peace deals are being routinely ignored by the market now as it's abundantly clear that both sides are hunkering down.

For the Iranian side, this is an existential struggle. There is talk of regime collapse…

Brent crude futures broke above the $100 per barrel mark today for the first time since late July as the latest escalation between the US and Iran intensified concerns over prolonged and heavier disruptions to oil supplies.

Brent rose more than 2% to around $100 per barrel, while WTI also pushed higher toward $95. The move comes after US forces struck five Iranian oil tankers and Iran retaliated with attacks targeting US military assets and vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The latest developments are raising concerns that the conflict could become even more disruptive.

Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk

The biggest concern for oil traders is the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial share of global oil and…

The U.S. dollar is trading lower against nearly all the major currencies in early trading today.

The largest decline is against the JPY, with the USDJPY down around 0.40%. The USD is also lower against the EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD and AUD. The NZD is the only major currency against which the USD is trading higher, but only by around 0.10%.

That makes the JPY the strongest of the major currencies, while the NZD is the weakest.

In today’s Kickstart video, I take a technical look at the three major currency pairs—the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

For each pair, I outline the levels that would give either the buyers or sellers more control. The technical levels provide traders with a roadmap. Stay above a key level and the bias becomes more bullish. Move…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

 

USD:

The US dollar spiked to the upside on Friday after the strong US NFP reportbut the gains didn’t last as most of the NFP-driven moves got faded thereafter.

This happened because the market focus was not on the NFP report, but on the CPI. The market pays attention to the data that the central bank is focused on, and the Federal Reserve is currently focused on inflation.

In fact, just a day before the NFP report, Fed’s Waller mentioned that he would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting, but a hot CPI would make him consider a rate hike.

That’s why traders are focused on the CPI report on Friday.…

Headlines:

• Oil prices close in on $100 as US-Iran tensions persist, but the real risk comes after it gets there
• European stocks slide as $100 oil revives inflation fears ahead of ECB
• The Nasdaq consolidates at key resistance as traders await the US CPI report
• AI infrastructure stocks surged while software fell. Does the rotation continue Wednesday?
• Gold remains under pressure amid escalating US-Iran attacks and US CPI risks. What to watch next?
• ECB preview: A rate hike expected as markets focus on Lagarde, inflation and future policy
• DeepSeek reportedly preparing for IPO in what could be China’s biggest AI market test yet

Markets:

• Brent crude +2.7% to $100.55
• WTI crude +2.1% to $95.00
• Gold +1.1% to $4,403
• US 10-year yields +0.4 bps to 4.808%
• European…

The ECB is fully expected to deliver a 25 bps rate hike this week, which will take the deposit facility rate to 2.50%. At this level, it is roughly the upper end of what most policymakers at the central bank feel that it is neutral. And if not, it borders on policy being mildly restrictive at best.

The rate hike tomorrow isn't one that is going to be a gamechanger in the battle against inflation. It is in fact just more of a building block and starting point, should they need to engage in a full on fight amid fears of second-round effects down the road.

In other words, the rate hike tomorrow is more of a positioning move.

The more important detail in feeling out the ECB's appetite for more restrictive policy and what could trigger…

Gold trade idea: If price sweeps below 4,431, this buy zone gets interesting

Important: We are not forecasting that gold will fall into our buy zone. Gold may continue higher without filling any of these orders. The idea is simply that if gold pulls back into roughly 4,417-4,428, we believe that area becomes interesting for a potential long.

Put another way:

"We think gold will fall to 4,428" is NOT the thesis.

"If gold falls to 4,428-4,417, we want to become interested in buying" IS the thesis.

That distinction matters.

Gold may hold the nearer 4,438-4,442 support area and continue higher from there. If that happens, the proposed long entry never activates. That is perfectly acceptable. A missed trade is not a failed forecast when the…