Brent crude futures broke above the $100 per barrel mark today for the first time since late July as the latest escalation between the US and Iran intensified concerns over prolonged and heavier disruptions to oil supplies.
Brent rose more than 2% to around $100 per barrel, while WTI also pushed higher toward $95. The move comes after US forces struck five Iranian oil tankers and Iran retaliated with attacks targeting US military assets and vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The latest developments are raising concerns that the conflict could become even more disruptive.
Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk
The biggest concern for oil traders is the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial share of global oil and refined-product shipments normally passes.
Oil flows through the strait have already been severely reduced since the conflict began, with recent volumes falling well below the levels seen before the latest escalation. The possibility of further attacks on tankers or energy infrastructure is therefore adding a significant geopolitical risk premium to crude prices.
The situation has also been complicated by attacks from Iran-backed Houthi forces on Saudi energy infrastructure. Several Saudi facilities have been affected, increasing concerns that disruptions could spread beyond just the US-Iran conflict.
Why the $100 level is important
The significance of the $100 level is also psychological. A sustained move above it would reinforce expectations that the market is pricing a prolonged period of supply disruption rather than a temporary geopolitical shock. At the same time, it could increase further inflationary concerns and Fed tightening risks.
What traders should watch next
I would start paying close attention to Trump now as a break above $100 level could force him into a ceasefire or some kind of peace rhetoric. That could send oil prices much lower in a relatively short period of time. So, keep an eye on the investingLive “live feed” page.
From a technical perspective, we can see in the chart below that brent crude is approaching the July high around the $102.00 handle. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the high to position for a pullback into the upward trendline.
The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break above the July high to open the door for a move into the next key level around $112.00. A break below the minor trendline, could lead to a deeper pullback into the next major trendline around the $90.00 level.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.