Market News

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader…

Asian equites are opening weaker following the continued fall on Wall Street and the ongoing stalemate over Hormuz. 

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Machinery Orders (YoY) (June 2026) +16.9%

• expected +10.8%, prior -1.9%

Machinery Orders (MoM) +9.7% m/m

• expected +7.8%, prior -12.4%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A breakdown in talks and the imposition of new 50% tariffs would hit sectors including lumber, wine, dairy and autos, with knock-on risk to broader USMCA negotiations that have underpinned North American trade stability for years. The auto sector is the clearest pressure point, given industry warnings that even a reduced 15% tariff would be unsustainable against average profit margins of just 6% under prior duty-free trade, and that roughly half the value of a Canadian-built vehicle originates in the US, meaning tariffs would also hurt American manufacturers. Currency and equity markets with exposure to Canadian exporters, particularly in materials, agriculture and autos, are likely to stay sensitive to headlines out of Washington through…

The scale of bullishness in BofA's August survey points to a market where positioning, rather than valuation or macro risk, may become the more relevant vulnerability in the near term. With cash levels this low and equity allocation at a five-year high, the room for fresh buying power to push markets further is limited, leaving positioning stretched into any negative surprise on growth, inflation or Fed policy. The sharp drop in the share of managers worried about a crowded semiconductor trade, down from over 80 percent to close to half in a month, suggests some rotation has already occurred within tech rather than a wholesale reduction in risk appetite. Contrarian signals embedded in the survey, including gold's status as most…

New Zealand producer prices rose in the second quarter 2026:

input prices +2.9%

• prior +1.4%

output prices +1.6%

• prior +0.8%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iraq's move underscores how deeply the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping export strategy across OPEC's Gulf-dependent producers, even for a country whose exports flow mainly from southern terminals rather than through the strait directly. As OPEC's second-largest producer, any disruption or shift in Iraqi export flows carries weight for global supply balances, and the push toward Turkish and Syrian routes signals a longer-term strategic pivot away from reliance on Gulf shipping rather than a temporary workaround. Traders will watch for details on volumes and outlets once available, since a meaningful diversion of crude away from southern terminals could ease some of the market's concentration risk around Hormuz, even as the…

The minutes carry more weight than usual this cycle because Chair Warsh's July statement was deliberately brief and offered little forward guidance, leaving markets largely in the dark on how the committee is thinking beyond the three known dissents. A hawkish tone, particularly explicit discussion of inflation risk from energy prices, could extend the recent push in Treasury yields and firm the dollar. A softer or more balanced tone risks being read two ways given how much weaker growth data has looked since the meeting, so the market reaction may hinge less on the headline tone and more on whether the Fed's June and July thinking still holds up against July's payrolls and retail sales misses. Desks will be watching specifically for any…

The combination of Iran's declared shift to a more offensive posture, its denial of the UAE missile allegations, and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is keeping a firm floor under crude even as daily headline volatility fades. Traders are increasingly looking past individual statements and focusing on the physical reality that vessel transits remain in the single digits, though covert flows from Saudi Arabia and Chinese buyers are quietly cushioning some of the supply loss. The muted price reaction to Trump's comments that the strait remains open, despite talks being neither underway nor scheduled, suggests the market has largely priced in a prolonged standoff rather than an imminent resolution. Widening attacks, from the…

Iran's formal denial deepens the standoff with the UAE rather than resolving it, keeping a layer of uncertainty over Gulf risk premia already elevated by the Hormuz closure and wider US-Iran tensions. Traders will read the exchange of accusations as a sign that direct confrontation between Iran and a major Gulf oil and shipping hub remains a live risk, even without independent confirmation of what happened. The reference to alleged false flag activity signals Tehran expects further accusations and is pre-positioning its response, which could sustain a steady drip of headline risk in the days ahead. For now the denial alone is unlikely to move oil much beyond the existing Strait of Hormuz risk premium, but it keeps the UAE-Iran channel…

Oil inventory data, via oilprice.com:

more to come

Diesel is getting out of control, inflation impact imminent (higher):

• investingLive Asia-Pacific market news: Diesel crack hits record $102, gold fell under $4400

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The suspension of trade, commercial and financial dealings between the UAE and Iran adds a fresh layer of geopolitical risk to an already tense Gulf backdrop. Traders will watch for signs the move signals a wider regional realignment against Tehran, which could tighten sentiment around Gulf shipping lanes and Strait of Hormuz risk premia. Any perception that Abu Dhabi is aligning with sanctions style measures against Iran could feed into oil risk premiums, even without a direct supply disruption. Markets will also look for reciprocal signals from Tehran or other Gulf states before pricing in a lasting shift in regional trade flows.

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The UAE has cut all commercial and financial ties with Iran as regional tensions escalate.

Summary:

• MoFA's…