Market News

There is arguably just one set of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. As things stand, buyers are continuing to try for an upside break but is falling short of firmly breaching the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower from April to June. That key level is seen at 1.1586. So, the expiries above will add another defensive layer in keeping price action more contained below or in and around the key technical level for now.

The dollar has been trading fairly mixed this week but might see firmer direction after the FOMC meeting minutes later in the day.

But all else being equal, the expiries here should at least help to keep any upside momentum in check for the…

The main focus will be on the UK CPI report though, with that coming in hot and fresh. As for the Eurozone CPI report, it will be the final estimate for July. So, that typically isn't really a market mover as the numbers don't tend to deviate much from the initial readings.

The UK inflation figures will be of much interest, as it will play into how markets take to the BOE outlook in the final few months of the year. The inflation pulse will carry more weight compared to the labour market data from yesterday. So, that will make the data release today much more important.

Headline annual inflation is estimated to see a rebound from the June low of 2.6% (unrounded 2.65%) to 2.9% in July. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is estimated to dip…

The critical chart for crypto as Bitcoin ranges between $64K and $65K

Bitcoin spot is trading inside a narrow but important daily decision range between roughly $64,085 and $65,050. These levels are the previous month's point of control and value area high. A daily close outside this band could provide the next meaningful directional clue, while two consecutive closes would offer stronger confirmation.

Key takeaways for Bitcoin and crypto traders

• Immediate range: Bitcoin is caught between $64,085 and $65,050.

• Bullish clue: A daily close above $65,050 would strengthen the recovery and the possible bull-flag interpretation.

• Bearish clue: A daily close below $64,085 would weaken the recovery and bring lower support back into focus.

• Confirmation…

• RBA dep Gov Hauser says inflation is too high, monetary policy needs to bring it down
• China eases limits on Nvidia H200 chips as AI race escalates, FT reports
• Trump pauses 50% Canada tariffs for 'three day period'
• UAE-Iran trade halt more significant than US embargo, ex-official says
• Australia Q2 2026 Wage price Index +0.8% q/q (expected +0.8%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7854 (vs. estimate at 6.7421)
• Update: Oil extends gains to fourth day as Hormuz fighting drags on
• South Korea stock market halt called already as Kospi plunges
• Japan June Machine Orders +16.9% y/y (expected +10.8%)
• Canada, US race against midnight tariff deadline as talks continue
• Fund managers pile into stocks, BofA finds. Fund manager bullishness near four-year high
• <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/new-zealand-q2-2026-producer-price-index-rises"…

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Gov Hauser:

• Inflation is too high
• Monetary policy needs to bring inflation down, needs to reduce demand in economy
• Not seeing recession, just slowdown
• Worried about inflation, upside risks to inflation
• If inflation doesnt come down, will have to raise rates again

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RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has reiterated that inflation remains too high and that monetary policy needs to keep reducing demand in the economy to bring it back toward target, warning that further rate hikes are still on the table if inflation fails to come down.

Hauser said the Board is not forecasting a recession, characterising the current path as a slowdown rather than a sharper downturn, but flagged that upside risks to inflation remain a…

A loosening of Beijing's own restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chips, even at a small scale, signals that Chinese authorities are prioritising domestic AI competitiveness over previous concerns about reliance on US hardware, a shift that could be read as bullish for Nvidia's addressable market in China if it extends further. The fact that the bulk of an estimated large H200 stockpile is being kept in Hong Kong rather than moved onto the mainland, reportedly due to insufficient local capacity to support the chips, highlights the logistical and infrastructure constraints still shaping how China deploys advanced compute even when policy allows it. For Nvidia and the broader semiconductor supply chain, any signal of renewed Chinese demand access…

Trump pauses the new tariffs that were due at midnight US Eastern time. Says has a tentative deal. 

USD/CAD dropped from around 1.3900 to around 1.3880.

Beginning at 12.45 pm Sydney time:

• 0245 GMT / 2245 US Eastern time 

As background to Hauser today ...

The RBA raised the cash rate three times in early 2026, taking it to 4.35 percent, after judging in February that demand was outstripping supply capacity by more than expected. It has since held at that level for two consecutive meetings, most recently on August 11, keeping a conditional pause rather than declaring victory.

Inflation remains the sticking point. Headline CPI sits around 3.8 percent as of the June quarter, still above the 2-3 percent target band, and trimmed mean measures have been sticky rather than falling cleanly. Deputy Governor Hauser has repeatedly stressed the Board still has "work to do," describing price growth as far…

Kimmitt's comments reframe the UAE's trade suspension from a diplomatic statement into a potentially serious economic shock for Iran, given Dubai's outsized role as Iran's single largest source of imported goods and its long-standing function as a financial workaround for sanctions. If accurate, the description of the halt as more consequential than US sanctions raises the stakes on how Iran might respond, with Kimmitt's own comparison to a full embargo carrying echoes of pre-conflict escalation dynamics. Markets will be watching whether other Gulf states adopt a similar wait-and-see posture Kimmitt describes, since any broader Gulf alignment against Iran would meaningfully tighten the economic pressure campaign and could feed further…

Australia Wage Price Index Q2 2026 

3.2% y/y

• expected 3.2%, prior 3.3%

0.8% q/q

• expected 0.8%, prior 0.8% 

Some background here at the preview. 

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

more to come 

The fourth consecutive day of gains reflects a market still pricing genuine uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz is actually navigable, rather than reacting to any single fresh escalation. The direct contradiction between Washington's insistence the strait is open and Tehran's assertion that it remains closed leaves shippers and insurers with little to act on, which tends to keep a risk premium embedded in price even without new strikes. Iraq's move to diversify export routes away from Gulf shipping, and further reports of Chinese shipping majors avoiding Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb entirely, both point to the physical market adjusting around the uncertainty rather than waiting for it to resolve. With the temporary ceasefire having…