Beginning at 12.45 pm Sydney time:
- 0245 GMT / 2245 US Eastern time
As background to Hauser today …
The RBA raised the cash rate three times in early 2026, taking it to 4.35 percent, after judging in February that demand was outstripping supply capacity by more than expected. It has since held at that level for two consecutive meetings, most recently on August 11, keeping a conditional pause rather than declaring victory.
Inflation remains the sticking point. Headline CPI sits around 3.8 percent as of the June quarter, still above the 2-3 percent target band, and trimmed mean measures have been sticky rather than falling cleanly. Deputy Governor Hauser has repeatedly stressed the Board still has “work to do,” describing price growth as far too high even as some relief has come through from softer fuel costs. He’s leaned on Phillips curve logic to justify the early, front-loaded hikes, arguing that acting promptly when the economy sits on the steeper part of the curve limits the eventual unemployment cost.
Two live complications sit alongside the domestic inflation fight. First, wages: Wednesday’s WPI data showed private sector wage growth continuing to moderate to its slowest pace this cycle, at 3.2 percent annually, giving the Board some room, though the Fair Work Commission’s larger-than-expected 4.75 percent award wage increase lands in Q3 and is expected to push WPI back up. Second, the external shock: Governor Bullock has flagged the Middle East conflict and its effect on oil prices as a genuine supply-side complication layered on top of already-excess domestic demand, a dynamic Hauser has echoed, noting a resolution and lower oil prices would be welcome but isn’t assured.
The Board’s language has kept a tightening bias technically alive rather than shifting to neutral, and Bullock’s August press conference reiterated that current pricing for near-term cuts is running ahead of the Board’s own thinking. That leaves Hauser’s remarks today as a chance to signal whether persistent Gulf-driven oil price pressure and the incoming award wage bump are enough to keep the door open to a further hike, or whether the Board is content to let the current settings work through the economy for now.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.