Market News

• Prior import prices +0.3%
• Export prices -1.3% vs +0.2% expected
• Prior export prices -0.6%

• Prior was 1.427m (revised to 1.415m)
• Building permits 1.443m vs 1.370m expected
• Prior was 1.374m 

US housing data for July was mixed, with building permits strengthening while housing starts and completions declined sharply. The divergence suggests that planned construction remains relatively good, but actual building activity weakened during the month.

Building permits rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.443 million, up 5.0% from June and 3.1% from July 2025. Single-family permits increased 2.5% m/m to 894,000, while permits for buildings with five units or more reached 490,000.

However, housing starts fell significantly. Starts dropped to an annualized rate of 1.239 million, down 12.4% from June and 13.5% y/y. Single-family starts…

• Prior was 8.25K

There's been some softening in private jobs creation in summer but nothing that's been pointing to deterioration. Taken all the US jobs data together, the labour market picture remains stable. 

The NFP data was highly likely just a blip and the next report should be better. However, the softer NFP and CPI reports have led traders to pare back September Fed rate hike bets, with the probability now standing at just around 33%. 

For background on the data, initiated in late 2025, ADP releases the NER Pulse, an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These releases are seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time…

US Stocks Fall as Middle East Heats Up – Dow down 0.5%

US stocks moved lower in trading yesterday as renewed concerns around the Middle East weighed on risk appetite. President Trump indicated that he would not look to extend the ceasefire, while Iran threatened to resume offensive action around the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears that tensions across the region could escalate further. The Dow Jones fell 0.51% to close at 53,459, while the S&P 500 declined 0.52% to 7,745. The technology-heavy Nasdaq outperformed slightly but still finished 0.32% lower at 26,644.

US Treasury yields pushed higher as traders assessed the potential inflationary impact of further disruption in the Gulf. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 0.6 basis points to…

Crypto market today: Bitcoin reclaims $64,000, but the recovery still needs proof

Data note: Market prices and fund-flow figures were checked on August 18, 2026. Crypto trades continuously, so prices may have changed since publication.

Bitcoin has climbed back toward $64,000-$64,300, while Ethereum is trading near $1,900 and the wider crypto market is attempting to stabilize. The rebound is constructive, especially after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to daily inflows on Monday. However, one stronger session does not erase the previous week's heavy withdrawals or confirm a crypto-wide recovery.

Key takeaways for crypto traders and investors

• Bitcoin: BTC has reached the $64,000-$64,095 recovery zone identified in our earlier analysis. The…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 2.13%, Shanghai Composite down 0.46% Hang Seng down 0.62% ASX up 0.07%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,447.90 (-0.58%) Silver at $65.218 (-1.57%), Brent Oil at 91.54 (0.74%), WTI Oil at 84.45 (0.80%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.740, UK 10-year yield at 5.0658, Germany 10-year yield at 3.2179

• (CAD)   Median CPI y/y    2.0%  to 2.0%  expected

U.S. stock futures fell early Tuesday as investors weighed persistent tensions between the U.S. and Iran, rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns that pushed Treasury yields higher.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 73 points, while S&P 500 futures declined 0.32%. Nasdaq-100…

• Qatar says Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement could clear path for broader US-Iran talks
• ECB policymaker Lane says inflation outlook is highly dependent on US-Iran war
• Germany August ZEW survey current conditions -61.1 vs -69.5 expected
• The bond market is one of the key spots to watch at the moment
• US futures nudge lower on the day, tech shares lead declines
• UK labour market shows further signs of cooling in June
• EUR/USD upside break may have to wait

It's been a slow session with very limited action in the markets. The lack of notable data and news releases, coupled with the prolonged US-Iran stalemate, has certainly been a major contributor. 

The UK labour market continued to lose momentum in June, with employment indicators pointing to weaker hiring…

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Majed Al-Ansari, said the Iran-Oman discussions have become a key step toward restarting the wider diplomatic process. The talks between Tehran and Muscat are focused on arrangements for maritime traffic through the strategic waterway, which has seen a dramatic decline in shipping since the US-Iran war began.

He added that an agreement over Hormuz would make it significantly easier for mediators to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table. Qatar has previously stressed that the priority is to restore normal navigation through the strait and create the conditions necessary for a broader diplomatic agreement.

This comes as US-Iran negotiations remain stalled, with both sides claiming…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 18 August 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session was driven by a combination of stronger-than-expected manufacturing data, fading expectations for a September Fed hike, elevated Treasury yields and continuing U.S.–Iran tensions. The stronger Empire State reading gave the dollar and yields some temporary support, but the broader market narrative remained USD-negative because recent U.S. retail-sales, employment and inflation data have weakened the case for further Fed tightening. Consequently, gold maintained a bullish bias, oil remained elevated and volatile, while U.S. equities traded mixed as investors balanced strong corporate/AI optimism against higher yields and geopolitical…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 18 August 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Risk-off sentiment dominated the Asia session, with the expiration of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire becoming the primary market catalyst. Rising oil prices renewed inflation fears and pushed global bond yields higher, while Japanese yields reached multi-decade highs, supporting expectations for eventual BOJ tightening and creating volatility in USD/JPY. Asian equities weakened, led by the Nikkei, while crude oil remained the strongest major bullish theme. For forex traders, USD/JPY, USD/CNH, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are among the pairs most sensitive to the combination of geopolitical risk, China-growth concerns and changing interest-rate expectations.

What does it…