Market News

If you only got eyes on one asset class this week, there is a good argument that the bond market is one to pay the most attention to.

The Fed's recent twist and turn, alongside softer US economic data, may have dampened rate hike hopes for a bit. But as the US-Iran conflict continues to extend for longer, the pressure continues to mount on oil prices and the global inflation outlook. And through all the noise, we're starting to see a potential for a fresh cycle high in Treasury yields this week.

10-year yields are looking to shake off the 4.70% mark to move higher while 30-year yields are clipping back 5.30% to its highest since 2007. Those are not levels to scoff at.

Adam makes a good argument here on how it may impact the stock market…

• August current conmditions -61.1 vs -69.5 expected
• Prior -77.6
• August economic sentiment 34.2 vs 30.0 expected
• Prior 26.3

A good set of positives there as German investor morale is seen improving further going into August. Both the current conditions and outlook indices saw a beat on estimates, with the former being the highest since July last year. Meanwhile, the latter is the highest since February. The outlook index is now seeing four straight months of improvement as well.

ZEW notes that:

"The positive trend in expectations further consolidates in August, likely due to the good quarterly results and the recent high level in exports. The German economy continues to benefit from the federal government’s infrastructure programmes although the…

Things are starting to look a bit dicey in the equities market today, with US futures extending the drop from Monday. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% while Nasdaq futures are down 1.1% currently, as tech shares lead declines so far on the day.

The retreat in the broader tech sentiment will act as a bit of a distraction to key earnings from major retailers this week. In case you missed it:

• No major US data releases but this week will feature a big test on consumer health
• Friday's US retail sales number was soft and now earnings will be another test

But for today, tech shares are back under the microscope as we also see equities come under pressure amid higher bond yields. 10-year yields in the US are scaling up to 4.74% while 30-year yields are…

Just a little catch up on things as we had some technical issues for a couple of hours. Apologies on that.

Earlier at the start of the session, we had the UK labour market report for June (and July payrolls) out and the numbers showed the following:

• June ILO unemployment rate 4.9% vs 4.8% expected; Prior 4.9%
• June employment change 83k vs 129k expected; Prior 147k
• June average weekly earnings +4.1% vs +4.0% 3m/y expected; Prior +4.4% (R)
• June average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.5% vs +3.4% 3m/y expected; Prior +3.4%
• July payrolls change -13k; Prior -13k (R)

All in all, the trend continues to reaffirm some slight softening in the labour market with payrolls dropping again. Meanwhile, wage prices are also keeping thereabouts and slightly cooler…

The dollar came under pressure early yesterday, with EUR/USD briefly treading water above the 1.1600 mark in European morning trade. But as US-Iran tensions continue to play out, we're seeing the bond market also react accordingly with yields rising to a fresh cycle high. 10-year yields in the US are now bordering on 4.74% with 30-year yields hitting 5.32% currently. For some context, the latter is now at the highest since 2007.

That's giving a lot to think about, with plenty of watchful eyes on the Fed especially ahead of Jackson Hole next week.

The odds of a September rate hike were trimmed to around ~29% early Monday but are now sitting around ~35% currently.

The latest development is keeping dollar losses in check and in the case of…

• Indian rupee intervention returns as USD/INR hovers near all-time high
• UKMTO report a vessel hit by a projectile while sailing out of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Analysts say that a surprise China LPR cut cannot be ruled out this week
• BHP CEO plays down Canada uranium talk, stays focused on four pillars
• Westpac says dollar's structural headwinds outweigh recent resilience, see EUR/USD and GBP/USD higher
• ING says heavy tone in Treasuries has further to run as truce lapses
• ICYMI: ETF flows return to gold as Saxo flags 289-tonne central bank demand
• Australian consumer sentiment rises 6% to 88.9 but stays deep in pessimism
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7905 (vs. estimate at 6.7452)
• Goldman calls September Fed hike very unlikely as…

Intervention at current levels would be consistent with the RBI's pattern through 2026, stepping in whenever USD/INR approaches its record high rather than defending a specific line in the sand, with the pair having already touched an all-time peak of 96.844 in May and trading around 95.4 to 95.6 in recent sessions. The rupee has been the weakest major Asian currency for much of the year, pressured by persistent foreign institutional outflows from Indian equities, elevated oil prices amplified by the ongoing Iran conflict, and periodic friction over US tariff threats tied to India's Russian oil purchases. Renewed dollar sales would signal the central bank still has room and willingness to lean against one-way moves despite reserves having…

Good catch, and fair pushback. "Casualty" in UKMTO's phrasing doesn't confirm a death, it can mean injured or killed, and the alert as given doesn't specify severity. I jumped to "killed" and "fatal" in the headline and copy, which overstates what's actually confirmed. Let me redo it more carefully.

SEO headline: Vessel struck by projectile in Strait of Hormuz, crew casualty reported(72 characters)

Alt headlines:

• UKMTO reports crew casualty after strike on outbound Hormuz transit
• Engine room hit, casualty reported as vessel struck in Strait of Hormuz
• Omani coast guard assists after projectile strike in Hormuz, casualty unconfirmed

A confirmed casualty aboard a vessel actively transiting Hormuz lands directly on top of an already fragile…

The analysis frames this week's LPR decision as a genuine live event rather than a formality, a shift from China's usual aversion to broad stimulus, driven by a stack of weak July data, industrial output, retail sales, house prices and PMIs, all missing, alongside a record contraction in bank lending that a rate cut could directly help address. The yuan's resilience near a three and a half year high against the dollar is the key enabling factor, removing the usual constraint that a rate cut risks destabilising depreciation, with the PBOC's midpoint management tools available as a backstop if USD/CNY does spike. The more market-relevant tension flagged is timing: consensus expects some easing this year but possibly only after October's…

Craig's response is notable for what it does not do, deny the NexGen speculation outright, rather than for any new strategic signal, which keeps the door open to eventual uranium expansion without committing capital or attention away from copper in the near term. That sequencing matters given BHP's stated priority on its South American and South Australian copper growth projects, the area Craig has repeatedly flagged as central to his strategy since becoming CEO in July, succeeding Mike Henry on a platform of organic growth across the company's existing four pillars rather than new M&A. With BHP already holding roughly 5% of global uranium supply as a byproduct of Olympic Dam, any Canadian uranium investment would represent a genuine…

Oil prices are closing sharply higher, with WTI accelerating to the upside in the final hours of trading. The price settled at $84.50, up $2.10 or 2.55% on the day.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the key fundamental driver, as sharply reduced shipping traffic continues to fuel concerns about potential Middle East supply disruptions. At the same time, U.S.-Iran negotiations remain stalled, helping to keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.

There are, however, forces working to limit the upside. Gulf producers continue to find alternative routes to move barrels to market, easing some of the immediate supply concerns. Meanwhile, softer expectations for global demand and plans for increased OPEC+ production remain potential…