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Westpac's framing treats the dollar's choppy but ultimately flat month, ranging as much as 0.5 points higher before ending 1.5 points lower at 99.5, as a market still undecided rather than genuinely resilient, particularly given it held those levels despite an elusive Iran deal and growing expectations the FOMC hikes into year end. The bank's core argument is structural rather than cyclical: narrowing breadth in US economic outperformance, deepening fiscal imbalances, rising debt service costs, and diminished FOMC forward guidance are all framed as building headwinds that compound over time rather than resolve quickly, which is why Westpac's targets extend out to end-2027 rather than calling a near-term top. The reference to DXY's 20-year…

The headline foreign holdings decline, Japan, the UK and China all trimming positions, sits alongside a messier picture on the transaction side, where June showed a modest $6.8 billion net inflow on one measure even as ING's TIC-based read shows a $72 billion net liquidation by foreign holders, underscoring how volatile and measure-dependent this data series has become month to month. ING's more important point is structural rather than the headline number: real yields resetting toward pre-financial-crisis norms is not necessarily a warning sign, it is a normalisation, but the added issuance pressure from hyperscaler credit and the absence of the usual Trump administration soothing rhetoric around Iran, given the 60-day truce lapsing…

Saxo's framing turns the usual gold playbook on its head, arguing that persistently high long-end Treasury yields, normally bullion's biggest headwind, may increasingly reflect fiscal and term premium concerns rather than growth or policy tightening, which would weaken the historically negative gold-yield relationship rather than reinforce it. That reframing matters because it is the one genuine outlier in an otherwise supportive setup: fading Fed hike expectations, a rolling-over dollar, returning ETF demand, and steady central bank buying are all pulling in gold's favour, leaving bond yields as the sole holdout. The $4,500 level, where the 200-day moving average sits, is flagged as the technical line in the sand, with a sustained break…

The composition of the gain matters more than the headline 6% rise, since it was concentrated almost entirely among mortgage holders and emerged only after the RBA's 11 August hold decision, with pre-decision responses barely changed from July. That points to a relief reaction tied specifically to the rate outcome rather than a genuine broad-based improvement in household confidence, reinforced by the index still sitting well below year-ago levels and pessimists continuing to outnumber optimists on current finances. The unemployment expectations reversal, rising back above the long-run average after last month's improvement, is arguably the more consequential detail for the RBA's own reaction function, since labour market deterioration…

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

Earlier:

• China unveils nine-department plan to boost county-level consumption
• PBOC seen shifting to overnight reverse repos as core liquidity tool

PBOC injected CNY 469.7bn via overnight reverse repos

• zero 7-day reverse repo
• net withdrawal of 95.8 billion yuan today

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scope of the initiative, spanning market infrastructure, retail licensing, brand penetration, and service parity between urban and rural areas, signals Beijing continuing to lean on domestic demand policy to offset the weaker external and property-driven growth channels that have constrained the broader economy. County-level and lower-tier markets represent a large share of China's population and a comparatively underpenetrated consumption base relative to major cities, so measures aimed at bringing brands, trendy products, and service standards down to that level target genuine addressable demand rather than symbolic policy signalling. The "one license for multiple locations" provision in particular could meaningfully lower the…

Goldman's call, if it proves right, would extend the reset already underway in market pricing, where hike odds for September have fallen to around 30% and the next expected move has been pushed from December to January following softer July inflation data. Hatzius's argument rests less on a single data point than on a run of underwhelming releases, retail sales, payrolls, and inflation all missing, giving the bank confidence the FOMC's doves have no reason to shift toward hikes at the September 15-16 meeting. The flagged steepening in the Treasury curve is the more actionable signal for rates desks, with Goldman attributing it to a combination of cooling price pressures, fading hike expectations, and fiscal concerns rather than any single…

A shift toward overnight reverse repos as the PBOC's primary short-term tool would mark a meaningful change in how Chinese money market rates are managed day to day, with the shorter tenor allowing the central bank to fine-tune liquidity with less lag than the 7-day instrument permits. Wang's reading of zero volume in 7-day operations alongside the mid-August overnight operation points to the central bank already testing this transition in practice rather than merely signalling intent, which traders in China's interbank market will likely treat as the more important detail than any single data point. Smoother, more precisely controlled market rates would reduce volatility in short-term funding costs, a dynamic domestic bond and money…

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader…

The downward revision is notable less for the direction, which follows a genuinely difficult five month stretch for gold, than for the fact that Wells Fargo is cutting targets even while reiterating a favourable overall stance on precious metals. That combination suggests the bank sees the current rebound, gold's strongest weekly gain since January in the first week of August, as real but insufficient to fully offset the drag from elevated US real yields, which it identifies as the core headwind since March. The regional divergence flagged in the note, gold down 5% globally in the first half but up 13% when measured through Asian trading hours, points to a market where international and central bank demand is doing the heavy lifting…

Gold's August rebound is being read as a genuine shift in positioning rather than a technical bounce, with the break above two resistance levels and the scale of the move over the past fortnight pointing to central bank and sovereign wealth fund buying alongside institutional demand for large bars, evidenced by a $1.50 an ounce premium in China. That reframes the metal's trajectory after the sharp Iran war selloff, which had taken gold from a January record of $5,595 to below $4,000 in June as investors sought liquidity and some central banks drew down reserves to support oil-strained economies. The macro backdrop has turned more supportive too, with the dollar at a two month low and September rate hike odds falling to 33 per cent from…

The reversal above 159 within days of the coordinated intervention low near 155 suggests the market is actively testing where Japanese and US authorities draw the line, a dynamic that typically keeps two way volatility elevated without necessarily reversing the underlying trend. Westpac's base case that USD/JPY settles closer to 160 rather than retesting 165 implies participants may need further verbal or actual intervention to prevent renewed yen weakness, without expecting a decisive turn lower until US rate expectations shift. The bank's timeline, essentially ruling out a sustained yen uptrend before late 2026 and only modest declines through 2027 and 2028, points to a multi-year view rather than a near term trade, with the structural…