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In case you missed it earlier: China delays July economic data release to late afternoon slot

The key figures will be for industrial output, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and property prices. All of this put together will offer up a picture of how the economic momentum in China is holding up at the start of the third quarter this year.

What is interesting is that instead of delaying it by a day or anything, they are deciding to move it to 0700 GMT instead.

This typically coincides with speech timings for China's economy, finance, and/or commerce ministry. That is when they will typically go about their daily remarks and speak about relevant and pertinent issues from day to day. So, do they see a need to justify/defend something here?

The dollar is trading down as we get into the new week, continuing the drop from Friday.

Even as oil prices continue to keep in the $80s and Treasury yields are remaining somewhat sticky, the dollar is starting to come under renewed pressure now. The charts are pretty telling about the current predicament for the US currency. And it's all to do with the Fed.

[EUR/USD daily chart]

The most notable chart among dollar pairs right now is the EUR/USD. The pair is now moving back above the 100-day moving average (red line), after the Friday attempt to break the key level fell a little short.

But as we get into the new week, buyers are seeing renewed vigour and we're also seeing a test of the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower from April…

• China's delayed July data looms as markets eye demand and PBOC's yuan stance
• Bloomberg says dark trade oil shuttles are the reason Iran war hasn't spiked oil prices
• Big Tech's AI spending is $3 trillion bigger than balance sheets show
• Yen edges higher as traders push back Fed rate hike bets, shrug off soft GDP
• Singapore NODX growth holds above 20% for fourth straight month in July
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7873 (vs. estimate at 6.7382)
• Japan Q2 GDP growth undershoots forecasts, complicating BOJ's hike timeline
• China's Securities Daily warns against chasing gold at current highs
• UK data - Housing slump and hiring freeze cloud outlook
• More NZ data: Retail card spending (July) +1.3% m/m (prior -1.4%)
• Bessent eyes Iran economic…

The unusual afternoon timing already flagged for Monday's release means Chinese risk pricing will be concentrated later in the Asian session than usual, leaving European markets to open without full clarity on the data and adding a layer of positioning risk around the open. Weak July credit figures released ahead of the activity data reinforce the case for a soft print, with new yuan loans contracting and both aggregate financing and loan growth slowing, all pointing to still-tepid demand for credit even as authorities continue rolling out consumer trade-in support. Any confirmation of broader deceleration in industrial output or investment would sharpen focus on whether the PBOC leans toward further easing, while also testing how…

The clandestine shuttle trade helps explain why Brent has held broadly in an $80 to $90 range through August rather than testing the $150 levels once feared at the war's outset, effectively acting as an informal supply buffer the market has come to depend on without fully pricing the risk behind it. Any meaningful slowdown in these flows, whether from escalating attacks or insurers pulling back cover, would remove that buffer quickly and could reintroduce the kind of upside price risk markets assumed away months ago. The apparent build-up of idle Saudi tanker capacity off Oman also hints at a potential further supply cushion if Riyadh follows the UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait into the shuttle trade, a development worth watching for any…

The scale of off-balance-sheet AI commitments adds a layer of hidden leverage that traditional valuation metrics may be understating, a risk factor equity investors are likely to price in more explicitly if AI demand growth shows any signs of slowing. With Alphabet and Amazon already posting negative free cash flow, further reliance on capital markets to fund these obligations could pressure credit spreads and weigh on sentiment toward the broader AI infrastructure trade. The disclosures are likely to sharpen scrutiny of individual balance sheets heading into upcoming earnings, particularly for companies whose purchase and lease commitments are growing fastest relative to reported capex.

--- Big Tech's real AI spending bill is running…

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• PBOC injected CNY 565.5bn via overnight reverse repos
• zero 7-day reverse repo

Earlier:

• China's Securities Daily warns against chasing gold at current highs
• China delays July economic data release to late afternoon slot

The yen's modest advance despite a clear GDP miss underscores how currency direction is currently being driven more by shifting Fed expectations than by domestic Japanese data, with fed funds futures now implying a two-thirds chance the Fed holds rates next month. That repricing of US policy risk is doing more to narrow the yield differential than anything coming out of Tokyo, leaving the yen's gains modest and still contained within its recent range rather than signalling a decisive break. The soft GDP print itself is unlikely to alter the BOJ's own tightening path given underlying inflation remains well above target, meaning the policy divergence story between a cautious Fed and a still-hawkish BOJ continues to underpin the currency,…

The July print, though a touch below the Reuters poll median, extends a run of exceptionally strong export growth that has already prompted a sharp upgrade to Singapore's official 2026 trade forecast, reinforcing the view that AI-linked electronics demand remains the dominant driver of regional trade momentum. With shipments broadening across nine of the top ten export markets rather than being concentrated in one corridor, the data supports the case that Singapore's export strength is structural rather than a single-quarter blip, a useful data point for traders positioning around broader Asian growth exposure. The result also arrives against the backdrop of last week's upgraded GDP and export forecasts, meaning today's figure is more…

A neutral setting would be around USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7414, only marginally higher than the previous fix, even though the dollar index eased on Friday and the onshore spot rate closed a touch firmer. The central bank is unlikely to simply follow the softer dollar lower, and instead appears set to keep managing the pace of yuan appreciation carefully rather than letting market forces set the tone unchecked.

That caution could extend further in the sessions ahead. With the dollar weakening, the PBOC might lean more heavily on its damping mechanism to slow the yuan's advance, potentially widening the gap between the fix and market expectations to around 500 pips from the previous 480. Such a move would lift the USD/CNY midpoint above…

The commentary underscores how sensitive gold sentiment remains to any upside surprise in US inflation data, given the current rally rests on expectations of a softer economy and a peaking rate cycle. A hotter than expected inflation print would risk reviving higher-for-longer Fed rate expectations, lifting Treasury yields and undermining the non-yielding metal's appeal, a scenario that could trigger a swift unwind of recent gains. At the same time, steady central bank buying on dips is seen as a structural floor beneath the market, meaning any pullback is more likely to be choppy and range-bound than a sustained reversal. For traders, the piece reads as a caution against extrapolating the recent rally in a straight line.

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State media…

Japan Q2 real GDP prelim +0.3% q/q

• vs. expected +0.5%

Japan Q2 GDP annualised +1.1%

• vs. expected +2.0%

Japan Q2 GDP deflator +2.6% y/y

Japan Q2 domestic demand contribution to GDP -0.2%

Japan Q2 external demand contribution to GDP +0.5%

• vs. expected +0.3

Japan Q2 exports +0.5% q/q

Japan Q2 private consumption 0.0% q/q

vs. expected +0.5%

Japan Q2 capex -1.2% q/q

• vs. expected +0.4%

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A GDP print this far below expectations complicates the Bank of Japan's path toward further policy normalisation, given the central bank has been leaning on steady domestic demand to justify additional rate hikes after moving away from ultra-easy policy. Flat private consumption and a sharp capex contraction point to a private sector still hesitant to spend, which…