Market News

The combination of a sharper than usual seasonal drop in asking prices and employers holding firm on both hiring and firing adds to the case for a cautious Bank of England, which has kept rates on hold since December 2025. Weak housing momentum alongside soft hiring intentions points to a consumer backdrop that remains fragile, a dynamic likely to weigh on sterling and keep gilt yields anchored to dovish rate expectations into official labour data due Tuesday. The London-versus-north divergence in house prices also reinforces a narrative of an economy healing unevenly rather than broadly, which could complicate the BoE's read on underlying demand. Markets are likely to treat both data points as reinforcing rather than new information,…

The modest cooling in New Zealand's Performance of Services Index (this is NZ's Services PMI) offers limited fresh signal for the RBNZ's rate path, with the reading still consistent with tepid but positive momentum rather than a sharp turn. NZD traders are likely to look past the headline given the marginal drop from June, focusing instead on the weak employment and supplier deliveries components as evidence the recovery remains narrowly based. A soft services print, layered on already cautious consumer sentiment, keeps alive the case for further RBNZ easing later in the cycle, though a second straight month above breakeven should cap the more bearish kiwi dollar narratives for now.

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New Zealand's services recovery is holding together,…

Any move against Chinese refiners or banks handling Iranian crude carries a direct oil market consequence: curbing discounted Iranian barrels would tighten supply and could push prices higher just as the market absorbs an already elevated geopolitical risk premium from the naval blockade. Traders are likely to treat this as a slow-burn story rather than an immediate catalyst, since Washington has signalled intent without confirming specifics. The China angle is the one to watch most closely, given any escalation against Chinese banks risks a tit-for-tat response from Beijing on critical minerals exports, a flashpoint that could ripple well beyond energy markets.

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Earlier:

• Oil- weekend recap & what's ahead: Iran vows to keep Hormuz shut,…

NZ electronic card retail sales +1.3% m/m

• prior -1.4%

+3.4% y/y

• prior +1.3%

Electronic cards data covers about 68% percent of core retail sales in NZ and is the main measure of monthly retail activity.

Also, Food Price Index inflation +0.1% m/m

• prior +0.6%

Earlier:

• NZ services sector holds above breakeven for second month as PMI eases to 50.6 (prior 50.9)

It's a subdued beginning to the new week for futures. 

Slightly up for 

• gold
• NQ

Oil is a touch firmer:

• Oil- weekend recap & what's ahead: Iran vows to keep Hormuz shut, Trump tells Americans to accept high gas prices

The unexpected delay of China’s monthly data drop shifts market risk into the Asian afternoon session, while setting up European markets for a volatile opening. Investors face potential positioning shifts across industrial commodities like copper and crude oil, which remain sensitive to Chinese demand signals. A confirmation of economic cooling could pressure regional equity indexes and the yuan, while reinforcing expectations for swift central bank intervention.

China’s unusual scheduling shift for key July economic metrics puts traders on high alert for soft growth data and potential central bank easing.

Summary:

• The National Bureau of Statistics revised its release schedule for July economic figures to 3:00 p.m. Beijing time on…

Last week's in-line CPI print triggered a modest bond rally, with pricing for the Fed's September meeting easing slightly, according to Goldman Sachs. A cooler than expected PPI reading then helped push the S&P 500 to a record closing high last Thursday. Goldman flags that heavy Treasury issuance and record corporate debt supply tied to the AI infrastructure buildout remain structural, compounding forces behind rising term premium at the long end of the curve, a dynamic expected to persist regardless of near term data surprises. Softer employment data is viewed as largely irrelevant to the policy path, with inflation retaining primacy in the Fed's reaction function. The bank's preferred expression of these dynamics is a curve steepener,…

The announcement itself carries limited direct market impact, but it reinforces a broader read that Washington is trimming its footprint and spending in secondary security theatres while its resources and political attention remain fixed on the Iran conflict. Any perception that US commitments on the Korean peninsula are softening could add a modest layer of regional risk premium for Korean won assets and defence related equities, though the scale of the drill reduction remains unspecified. The more direct market driver stays the Iran standoff itself, with Hormuz transit still halted and gasoline prices elevated; this move looks more like a fiscal and bandwidth story tied to that conflict than a standalone North Korea policy shift.

Trump…

Crude held a firm bid into the weekend, with Brent on track for a 6.0% weekly gain and WTI up 5.4%, as traders priced in an extended disruption to Hormuz transit rather than any near term resolution. With essentially no crude tankers moving through the strait on Friday, against a pre-war daily average above 130 vessels, the market is treating the blockade as the operative price driver rather than headline risk alone.

Escalating attacks on tankers, including the latest strikes on ADNOC vessels and a bulk carrier hit by an unidentified projectile, keep a war-risk premium embedded in freight and insurance costs. Trump's own rhetoric, both his acceptance of higher pump prices and his suggestion the US could eventually claim the strait,…

Its just before:

• 5am Tokyo
• 4am ingapore/Hong Kong
• 6am Australia/8am New Zealand

Early indications:

• EUR/USD 1.1569
• USD/JPY 159.31
• GBP/USD 1.3538
• USD/CHF 0.8117
• USD/CAD 1.3876
• AUD/USD 0.7090
• NZD/USD 0.5892

I'll be back with weekend news soon.

Bitcoin stabilizes near $63,000, but reclaiming $64,000 is the real test

Bitcoin is stabilizing near $63,100 after buyers defended the lower part of its recent range. That is constructive, but it is not yet a confirmed recovery. BTC must first overcome resistance near $63,175-$63,270, while reclaiming and holding $64,000-$64,095 remains the more important test.

Key takeaways for Bitcoin traders and investors

• Current position: BTC is holding above the previous month’s lower value boundary near $62,380.

• Immediate resistance: Buyers need to clear $63,130-$63,175, followed by $63,247-$63,270.

• Main recovery test: A sustained reclaim of $64,000-$64,095 would carry much more weight than a temporary bounce near $63,000.

• Major support: The broader…

Earnings beats are not enough: What experienced investors watch instead

A stock can beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates and still fall sharply. Another company can miss an estimate and rally. This is not necessarily irrational. Stock prices respond to how results compare with the expectations already reflected in the price, not simply whether the headline says “beat” or “miss.”

Key takeaways for stock investors

• An earnings beat is not automatically bullish. A small beat may have been widely expected and already priced into the stock.

• Published consensus is not the market’s full expectation. Investors may also be considering unofficial “whisper numbers,” valuation, positioning, guidance and industry trends.

• The size of the reaction needs…