Market News

• Why Retail Traders Are Rethinking Traditional Prop Firms
• US stocks end the week mixed; Russell 2000 closes at a record
• Trump: Pretty soon will be declaring Strait of Hormuz territory of the US
• The weekly Baker Hughes rig count rises by 5 in the current week
• Fed's Goolsbee: US GDP and labor markets are basically stable
• European shares close mostly lower as yields jump; DAX bucks the trend
• US Business inventories for June 0.0% vs 0.1% estimate
• US August prelim UMich consumer sentiment 51.0 vs 54.5 expected
• Canada Manufacturing Sales for June +0.1% vs -0.1% estimate
• US July retail sales -0.6% vs +0.1% expected
• Kickstart the NA session for Augste 14: USD falls across the board as BOJ rate hike talk lifts the yen
• investingLive European session wrap:…

US stocks finished mostly lower on Friday, taking some of the shine off a week that saw both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 trade at record levels. The exception today was the small-cap Russell 2000, which bucked the broader weakness and closed at a new record high.

The S&P 500 reached a fresh all-time high during the week and closed at a record on Thursday, but buyers could not keep the momentum going into the weekend. Friday's softer retail sales and consumer sentiment data contributed to a more cautious tone, while higher oil prices and geopolitical concerns also weighed on risk appetite.

At the closing bell, the major indices finished:

• Dow industrial average: 53,737.38, -108.01 points or -0.20%

• S&P 500: 7,785.75, -13.23 points or…

Trump is speaking and says:

• Pretty soon he'll be declaring the Strait of Hormuz territory of the US.
• Warned that Iranian aggression would be met with response hundred times harder and emphasized that the US only permits vessels to enter the Strait at its discretion.
• Calls the blockade is unstoppable
• US to pay a tiny little price for gasoline.
• Says he will hit Iran hard economically. 
• Does not care if hitting the Iran economy before midterms

The EURUSD moved sharply higher through the European and early North American sessions, but the rally ran into a familiar technical roadblock.

For the second Friday in a row, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average, only to struggle to sustain momentum. This time, buyers pushed the price into the next key target area near 1.1586, where the top of a swing area converges with the 50% retracement. The high reached 1.1585, virtually testing that level to the pip, before buyers turned to sellers.

The subsequent reversal has taken the EURUSD back below the 100-day moving average, once again putting the upside move in jeopardy.

That price action has an eerily similar feel to last Friday. The EURUSD also moved above the 100-day moving…

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count showed:

Oil up 1 to 455

Natural gas up 4 to 128

Total rigs +5 to 593. 

 Versus a year ago, the Oil is up from 412, Natural gas is up from 122 and total is up from 539. 

Crude oil is trading at $82.19, up $0.94 of the day. THe high reached $82.99. The low was at $80.71. 

As London/European traders head for the exits, the major European stock indices are closing mostly lower. Germany's DAX was the notable exception, gaining 0.51%, while France, the UK, Spain and Italy all finished modestly in the red.

The moves come as European benchmark yields rose sharply across the board, adding some pressure to equities.

European closing levels:

• German DAX: +0.51% at 26,432.87
• France CAC 40: -0.16% at 8,636.81
• UK FTSE 100: -0.21% at 10,750.12
• Spain Ibex: -0.06% at 20,156.61
• Italy FTSE MIB: -0.20% at 53,583.60

Europeans yields move higher

In the European debt market, benchmark 10-year yields moved sharply higher:

• Germany: 3.205%, +7.1 basis points
• France: 4.048%, +9.9 basis points
• UK: 5.042%, +9.0 basis points
• Spain: 3.652%, +8.4…

Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsby is on the wires saying

• US GDP and labor market are basically stable
• The weak retail sales represents one month of data
• Continued spending weakness could be worrying
• supported the July rate decision
• Notes is that the past two productivity data releases were very poor.  If it persists, it could change the AI narrative 
• Encouraged by CPI reports and need more data

Goolsbee tends to go with the flow. He can be more hawkish or more dovish.   His comments on productivity are a concern for for inflation and have implications for US stocks.  At the same time, wonder if the productivity measures are being influenced by the upfront costs with the  majority of the gains to be determined. But that is a $64,000 question for…

The major US stock indices are trading lower on the day, taking some of the shine off what had been a technically positive week.

• S&P index: down -0.23% on the day, but still holding onto a 0.30% gain for the week.
• NASDAQ index: down -0.52% today and now -0.09% for the week.

For the S&P, the index stretched to a new record high this week, but buyers have been unable to generate additional upside momentum in trading today.

The NASDAQ also reached an important technical milestone this week, extending above a key swing area that tops out at 26,788.62. However, that breakout has also failed to attract sustained follow-through buying, with the index moving back to the downside today.

Those failures to extend higher put more focus on the technical…

The GBPUSD is running higher and is now up near 0.50% on the day. The run higher has taken the price above the 100 hour moving average and 50% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.3503. The price is also extending above the month of July at 1.35573. The high prices just reached 1.3561. That takes a price for the GBPUSD to the highest level going back to May 12.

Technically, looking at the 4 hour chart, the price extended above a swing area between 1.3543 and 1.3557. For traders looking for more upside momentum, staying above 1.3543 is a close risk level. Move back below and there could be some disappointment on the failed break. Stay above and the buyers are still in firm control with the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 trading range…

In yesterday’s post and video, I highlighted the importance of the swing area between 0.8138 and 0.81513, writing:

“Ultimately, if buyers are going to take firmer control, they need to get and stay above 0.8151. A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish bias and have traders looking toward the July swing highs near 0.8206.”

That break never materialized.

The USDCHF reached a late-session high yesterday of 0.8146, just below the upper end of that key swing area. In the new trading day, buyers made another attempt, but the price stalled at 0.8145 before rotating back to the downside.

The selling pressure has intensified over the last few hours, helped by broader U.S. dollar weakness. Technically, the decline has taken the…

• Prior was 55.2
• Conditions 51.8 vs 55.0 expected (prior 54.9)
• Expectations 50.6 vs 55.2 expected (prior 54.0)
• 1-year inflation 4.3% vs 4.2% prior
• 5-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.3% prior

The market doesn't put any weight on this survey anymore. It's highly infected by politics and hasn't forecast anything in regards to consumer spending in ages. The inflation numbers did once trick the Fed into an aggressive rate hike in the post-covid era, which they had to leak via Timiraos. The irony is that the jump in inflation expectations in that number was revised away two weeks later.

• Prior month 0.3% revised higher to 0.4%
• Business inventories for June 0.0% vs 0.1% estimate
• Retail inventories ex autos -0.4% vs -0.2% last month.

Sales show a sharp fall in June but still up strong for the year. 

• June business sales: $2.111 trillion
• Month-over-month:-1.1% vs. May 2026
• Year-over-year:+10.0% vs. June 2025
• Sales figures are seasonally and trading-day adjusted, but not adjusted for price changes.

The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of June was 1.30 which is higher from the lowest level going back to 2021.   The June 2025 ratio was 1.39.

With the inventory-to-sales ratio is at its lowest since 2021, it can create the conditions for an inventory-rebuilding cycle, particularly if…