Market News

Coming into today’s trading, USDCAD had been confined to a relatively narrow range for the week. The high was set on Monday at 1.3964, while Wednesday’s low reached 1.3908 — a range of just 56 pips (see red box on the chart below). However, as posted yesterday, the sellers still had the strongest hand (see post here). 

That changed today as sellers pushed the pair to a new weekly low at 1.3868. The weekly range has now expanded to nearly 100 pips, which is a little more respectable, although still not particularly large by historical standards.

More importantly, the move lower represents another leg in the step-by-step decline that has been developing since USDCAD peaked in mid-June.

From a technical perspective, the sellers have checked off…

The US dollar is trading lower across the board to start the North American session on Friday, with the greenback losing ground against all of the major currencies. The NZD is leading the way, rising 0.62% versus the USD and back above the 100 and 200 hour MAs (see chart below), while the GBP is up 0.39%, the CAD is up 0.37%, the EUR is up 0.35%, and the JPY is up 0.22% versus the dollar. For the three major pairs covered in the Kickstart video, that translates into EURUSD and GBPUSD moving higher, while USDJPY is moving lower.

In today's Kickstart video, I take a technical look at three of the currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - identifying the bias, the risk levels that could shift that bias, and the key targets ahead. Those…

US stocks hit records, but oil and weaker earnings signals demand more selectivity

US stocks remain supported by softer inflation and lower expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. However, two risks are becoming harder to ignore: elevated oil prices and a defensive shift in recent earnings reactions. The market is still constructive, but traders may need to become more selective rather than simply buying every AI stock or market dip.

Key takeaways for traders and investors today

• US stocks: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record levels after benign producer-price inflation.
• Main macro risk: A sustained Brent crude breakout above $90 could revive inflation concerns and pressure growth stocks.
• Earnings warning: Recent earnings…

• Prior was +0.2%
• Ex autos -0.3% vs +0.2% exp
• Ex gas and autos -0.2% vs +0.4% prior
• Retail control -0.4% vs +0.3% exp
• Retail sales y/y nominal vs +6.72% prior

The thinking is that the US consumer will continue spend so long as the jobs market holds up but this report dents that view. I'd caution that it's only one report.

• Prior month +1.3%
• Manufacturing Sales +0.1% versus -0.1% estimate

Headlines:

• Dollar nudges lower on the day amid mixed market mood
• Bitcoin loses key $64,000 level: The important support levels BTC must hold next
• BOJ reportedly set for a September rate hike, eyes faster pace of tightening
• German wholesale prices bounce back in July as energy tax cut lapses
• French inflation accelerates again in July, core prices move up as well
• Swiss economy estimated to post quarterly growth of 1.5% in the second quarter
• China new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this year

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up 0.5% to $81.64
• NZD leads, USD lags on the day
• Gold up 0.3% to $4,362
• S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 0.3 bps to 4.645%
• Bitcoin down 0.8% to $62,829

There's not all too much in it as we…

After the joint intervention from Japan and the US, the yen currency has been a key focus again in recent weeks. And that just amplifies all the scrutiny on the upcoming BOJ policy decision, with some speculation that the joint intervention included some promise on Japan's end to push for higher interest rates.

While a more hawkish BOJ may be a driving factor to potentially help defend the yen, is it going to be what turns the tide? The yen has been heavily punished amid a multitude of factors since late last year already. And here's a good reminder as to why those factors will continue to pressure the currency, besides the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

1. Japan's fiscal situation remains fragile

This is the whole premise of the Takaichi trade…

• Q2 GDP second estimate +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelim
• Prior (Q1) +0.1%; revised to 0.0%

There is no change to the preliminary estimate but there is a minor downgrade to the Q1 GDP estimate on the quarter, which is now seen flat instead of posting a marginal growth.

Compared to the same quarter last year, euro area GDP in Q2 2026 is seen growing by 1.0% at least.

In any case, this is very much a lagging data point by now. That as markets are turning their attention to renewed tensions in the Middle East, which is underpinning inflation risks. And that is likely to pressure the ECB into needing to act faster.

Carry on as you will.

Well, it's starting to look like a feature and not a bug anymore. The latest credit data for the month of July sees China new bank loans fall into contraction again, shrinking by ¥340 billion. That is a miss on expectations, which were expecting lending to increase by ¥45 billion instead.

That is a rather disappointing estimate and sees new yuan loans from January to July total to just ¥10.38 trillion. That is a marked fall compared to the ¥12.88 trillion total from January to July last year.

This marks back-to-back July months now that China new bank loans have contracted. While it may be tied to some seasonal factors, weak household credit demand cannot be understated in being a drag on lending in the Chinese economy.

Once again, data like…

The dollar is trading on the softer side in European morning trade, nudging lower despite an absence of any major catalysts. The dollar drop comes amid a mixed mood in broader markets, so that's not giving a consistent look in the final stretch of the week.

USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 159.13 currently but still keeping thereabouts and poised to end the week above the 159.00 level and around 0.8% higher. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is trading up 0.2% to 1.1553 and is now flat on the week. The currency pair continues to hold near the 100-day moving average (red line) but keeps below that with buyers not finding the right trigger for a technical break.

[EUR/USD daily chart]

Besides that, GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.3520 and AUD/USD up 0.2% to 0.7070 on the day…

• July final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim
• Prior +1.8%
• July final HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.0%

French headline annual inflation is confirmed at 2.1% in July, amid a renewed increase in price pressures all around. Core annual inflation is also seen accelerating again, moving up to 1.3% in July - up from 1.0% in June.

The headline estimate is exacerbated by a jump in energy price inflation again, which is up to 12.6% in July. That comes after the 11.0% estimate in June, which is still on the high side. The major bump in July owes much to a sharp move higher in gas prices (+17.7%) compared to the estimate in June (+10.4%).

Meanwhile, services inflation is also seen increasing to 2.2% in July - up from 1.9% in the month before. Food…