Market News

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 14 August 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets were broadly positive as softer U.S. inflation reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, supporting regional equities and risk sentiment. Japan’s yen remained a key focus amid expectations of possible BOJ tightening or further intervention, while strong Singapore and Malaysia growth data supported their currencies. Oil remained elevated around $87 Brent due to Middle East tensions, while gold eased as traders took profits.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should compare the +0.1% headline and +0.2% core forecasts with the actual figures because a significant upside surprise could revive Fed…

• Switzerland Q2 flash GDP +1.5% q/q
• Prior (Q1) +0.4%

This is only the provisional estimate and may be revised after when the more detailed report is released, after around another 60 days. As such, there's not all too much detailed information on this one.

The Swiss statistics office did note that:

"The industrial sector made the largest contribution to growth, which was driven in particular by the chemical and pharmaceutical industry. The services sector also grew as a whole."

In that lieu, it means that much of this "growth" is driven by a surge in chemical and pharmaceutical exports - especially to the US.

Mind you, Swiss foreign trade saw a material rebound in Q2 as exports were seen up 8.8%. Exports to the US in particular were up 21.5%…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.34%, Shanghai Composite down 0.21% Hang Seng down 1.07% ASX down 1.02%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,379.87 (-0.91%) Silver at $64.085 (-1.40%), Brent Oil at 87.14 (0.08%), WTI Oil at 81.37 (0.14%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.655, UK 10-year yield at 4.9563, Germany 10-year yield at 3.1390

• (USD)   Unemployment Claims
•  209%  to 202%  expected

U.S. stock futures were little changed early Friday following a record-setting session, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite on track for their third consecutive weekly gains.

S&P 500 futures hovered near the flatline, while Nasdaq-100 futures edged lower. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures…

• July final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim
• Prior +1.8%
• July final HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.0%

French headline annual inflation is confirmed at 2.1% in July, amid a renewed increase in price pressures all around. Core annual inflation is also seen accelerating again, moving up to 1.3% in July - up from 1.0% in June.

The headline estimate is exacerbated by a jump in energy price inflation again, which is up to 12.6% in July. That comes after the 11.0% estimate in June, which is still on the high side. The major bump in July owes much to a sharp move higher in gas prices (+17.7%) compared to the estimate in June (+10.4%).

Meanwhile, services inflation is also seen increasing to 2.2% in July - up from 1.9% in the month before. Food…

The report says that the BOJ is eyeing to raise interest rates as soon as the September meeting next month and could even consider hiking more aggressively thereafter. The thinking is that the Japanese central bank would want to move from its current pace of hiking roughly twice a year to a much faster one.

The sources noted that "an early rate hike has come into sight", adding that the BOJ "could also accelerate the pace of rate increases".

They also note that with underlying inflation nearing the 2% target, the BOJ must start to be more sensitive towards the upside risks to prices. Adding that given the current context, the BOJ may not want to wait too long before delivering the next rate hike.

Well, I don't think the report is saying much…

US Markets Rally as Rate Hike Expectations Fall – Nasdaq up 0.8%

US equity markets rallied strongly in trading yesterday, with further signs of easing inflationary pressure helping reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting. The S&P 500 gained 0.65% to close at a fresh record high of 7,798, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq outperformed, rising 0.81% to 26,803. The Dow Jones also moved higher, adding 0.13% to finish at 53,839.

The softer inflation outlook, which kicked in after PPI data came in well below expectations, saw US Treasury yields fall across the curve, with the 2-year yield declining 5.9 basis points to 4.142% and the benchmark 10-year yield falling 5.7 basis…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 14 August 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The combination of cooling producer inflation and slightly weaker jobless-claims data, which strengthened expectations that the Fed could keep rates unchanged rather than deliver another hike in September. That pushed Treasury yields and the dollar lower, supporting gold and major equity indices, with the S&P 500 reaching an intraday record and the Nasdaq outperforming. At the same time, oil remained under pressure, as rising U.S. inventories and lower OPEC/IEA demand expectations outweighed the bullish effect of continued U.S.-Iran/Hormuz tensions.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Gold and U.S. indices, on Friday’s U.S. data, could create…

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1550 level. The expiries here don't tie to any technical significance but may just offer a bit of a pull factor in keeping price action more limited in the session ahead.

The currency pair remains locked below the 100-day moving average at 1.1566 currently. So, that remains the key technical ceiling that is keeping a lid on price action. As such, it would require a catalyst of sorts to really produce any notable price movements before we end the week.

US-Iran developments continue to be in limbo and USD/JPY is not exactly threatening the 160 mark, so that is not seeing much danger for any added intervention play just yet. That…

• July wholesale prices +0.2% m/m
• Prior -0.7%
• July wholesale prices +5.3% y/y
• Prior +4.9%

German wholesale prices nudged up in July, owing much to another bump in the price of petroleum products. The expiration of the temporary reduction in the energy tax rate on gasoline and diesel (which lapsed after 30 June) helped to see their price move up by 4.0% on the month. And relative to a year ago, the price of petroleum products are on average over 24% higher compared to July 2025.

Besides that, prices of non-ferrous ores, metals, and semi-finished metal products dropped by 3.9% on the month but are still well higher compared to the same month last year (+27.8%).

Meanwhile, the other increase in July was prices for information and communication…

This builds from the technical position from yesterday here: Gold fails to find that additional spark from US inflation data

As mentioned then, one of the potential plays for gold was:

"With price action stalling in the past few days, the buying momentum is starting to run out of oomph. If we do see a break back below the 100-hour moving average (red line), that could signal further downside to around $4,325 with plenty of scope for a further retreat amid a lack of other buying catalysts for the time being. In short, buyers are still looking poised but have to do more before they run out of steam and lose some near-term control - which could lead to a bit of a retreat in the latter stages this week."

That seems to taking shape with the drop…

In my previous Bitcoin analysis, I showed that the assigned score of -4 (which means moderately bearish), and the bears are indeed still proving to be stronger than the bulls as Bitcoin continues struggling to reclaim ground below $64,000. Looking at the broader macro backdrop, we could see an increase in risk-off sentiment soon following news that Trump ordered new tariffs up to 100% on drone imports citing national security. However, the AI trade remains a persistent tailwind for equity markets, driven by ongoing optimism as OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate surpassed $40 billion according to recent reports (gotta admit, that's impressive, and the AI trade may still have some fuel).

Now let's jump into the crypto king who seems a…