- July final CPI +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim
- Prior +1.8%
- July final HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelim
- Prior +2.0%
French headline annual inflation is confirmed at 2.1% in July, amid a renewed increase in price pressures all around. Core annual inflation is also seen accelerating again, moving up to 1.3% in July – up from 1.0% in June.
The headline estimate is exacerbated by a jump in energy price inflation again, which is up to 12.6% in July. That comes after the 11.0% estimate in June, which is still on the high side. The major bump in July owes much to a sharp move higher in gas prices (+17.7%) compared to the estimate in June (+10.4%).
Meanwhile, services inflation is also seen increasing to 2.2% in July – up from 1.9% in the month before. Food price inflation also sees a minor increase to 1.0% in July – up from 0.9% in the month before.
But all in all, it’s still the more sticky figure in services inflation that is driving up core prices. And that will keep the ECB watchful especially if the trend keeps this way after the summer.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.