Market News

Trump confirms that Kushner and Witkoff are headed to Moscow and Kyiv this weekend with a new proposal to end the war. We will have to see where that leads.

Trump also says they may hit Pickaxe mountain very soon. Pickaxe Mountain is a heavily fortified underground nuclear facility being built by Iran inside the Zagros Mountains about 225km south of Tehran. Iran says it is a replacement centrifuge assembly plant, but international intelligence and nuclear watchdogs suspect it may house secret uranium enrichment or storage.

• Putin isn't looking to attack NATO
• There are no mines in the Strait of Hormuz
• There's been no shooting for days
• We have essentially taken over Iran
• Iran issue is 'small potatoes' 

There is some talk that the Jordan strikes did…

A wave of explosions have been reported over Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan, including from Ynet. This was likely Iranian missiles that were intercepted over the northern part of the country.

Earlier, there were also repots of attacks on the Muwaffaq al Salti Air Base.

There hasn't been a response from the US side yet but that may be because markets are open. Iran is now launching pre-emptive attacks and the US will have three days of closed markets to respond should they choose.

WTI was last down 32-cents to $91.01 wit ha range of $88.72 to $92.17 today in choppy trading. Zoom out and we are challenging the top end of the recent range.

Meanwhile, Axios reports that Trump's team is working on a post-war strategy focused on a regional effort to…

The price of Nvidia is stretching toward its all-time high despite a down day for the broader US stock indices. Shares are currently up $2.70, or 1.12%, at $231.00. The intraday high reached $234.76, putting the stock less than $2 from its record high of $236.54.

Technically, the combination of the nearby all-time high and broader market weakness has helped put a temporary lid on the rally. However, the intraday correction has also found support near a swing area around $228.40 in spite of the broader stock market weakness.  

That level at $228.40 is important for the short-term bias. As long as the price remains above the level, buyers remain in firm control and can continue to target the all-time high at $236.54. A break above that record…

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is sounding decidedly hawkish on monetary policy, arguing that the Fed’s current policy stance is not restrictive enough while inflation remains too high.

Hammack says feedback from her local business contacts suggests the time has come for the Fed to raise interest rates to help bring inflation back under control.

The comments reinforce the idea that the Fed may need to tighten policy further if inflation remains elevated. For traders, the message is potentially supportive of the US dollar and US yields, while creating a headwind for stocks. However, the ultimate market reaction will still depend on whether incoming inflation and employment data support her view.

Hammack’s comments:

• Fed policy is not…

The price of crude oil is up sharply this week after closing last week near $83.50. The rally gained momentum after the price moved above two important technical levels near $86.60: the 100-day moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the April 2026 high to the July 2026 low.

When different technical tools identify roughly the same price, that area becomes more significant. Moving above the $86.60 cluster shifted the technical bias more firmly in favor of the buyers and gave them the go-ahead to target the next resistance area.

That resistance was defined by another area consisting of a number of technical levels :

• The 50% midpoint of the April-to-July decline at $92.87.
• A series of swing highs going back to mid-June…

WTI crude oil futures have reversed higher today on reports of Iranian ballistic missile launches.

Iran said it was moving to a pre-emptive doctrine and now we're seeing increasing signs of it as they struggle to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Aug 26, WTI was as low as $79 but now it's back over $90.

In other war news, some of the weight on oil earlier was on a report that Kushner and Witkoff will visit Moscow and Kyiv this weekend in a renewed push for peace negotiations. They have visited Russia multiple times but it would be their first visit to Kyiv since the start of Russia’s 2022 invasion.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha also told reporters on Thursday that he saw a “new dynamic” coming in peace…

The broader US stock indices are trading mixed as investors digest the stronger-than-expected US jobs report. The S&P 500 is marginally lower, while the Nasdaq Composite is posting a modest gain.

A strong employment report can be both good and bad for stocks.

On the positive side, continued job growth supports consumer spending, economic activity and corporate earnings. On the negative side, a strong economy and a tight labor market can keep wage and inflation pressures elevated. That could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates—or even tighten policy further. Higher rates increase borrowing costs and can reduce the present value investors are willing to pay for future corporate earnings, particularly for growth and…

Here is the latest rant from the President following today's jobs report:

Great jobs number just announced, breaking all estimates (except mine!) by double and triple - And you haven’t seen anything yet! EMPLOYERS ADDED 162,000 JOB IN AUGUST. Lower the interest rates because the U.S.A. is a much stronger credit than it was just a short time ago! A STRONG COUNTRY MEANS A LOWER INTEREST RATE - IT’S A BETTER CREDIT…Very simple! We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World, like “the old days.” Without the United States agreeing to allow them their big surpluses, and we could stop that immediately, they would no longer be considered financially ELITE! LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE…

The US jobs report was a blockbuster and, fundamentally, should have sent the US dollar sharply higher. Initially, that is exactly what happened against several major currencies, including the JPY, EUR, GBP and CAD.

However, the expected effect does not always follow the fundamental cause—at least not for long. One reason is that price may run into an important technical level where traders are willing to take profits, enter in the opposite direction or define their risk. In those situations, the technicals can stop—or even reverse—the initial move.

In the video above, I examine the market’s reaction to the US jobs report in the USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCAD. Despite the strength of the data, the price action across those pairs has been…

It's the final countdown to jobs Friday with both the US and Canadian numbers due up at the bottom of the hour. 

USD/JPY remains in focus as it's now more than 100 pips from yesterday's low and we had some more turbulence in Asia. I would imagine macro traders avoid that pair in the aftermath of the report.

Otherwise, the lay of the land is fairly flat with the euro down 2 pips on the day to 1.1622 and much of the same elsewhere in FX.

That's not the case in fixed income with 2-year yields up 2 bps to 4.35% and trading at the highs of the day. Waller yesterday dismissed the jobs report in his thinking -- barring a big surprise -- and that will loom large but it's still non-farm payrolls and there are inflationary indications in the wage part…

• Prior month employment change: 75.1K

Details for the month of August: 

• Employment change:-41.7K vs +15.0K expected; prior +75.1K
• Unemployment rate:6.4% vs 6.4% expected; prior 6.4%
• Full-time employment change:-35.9K vs prior +38.6K
• Part-time employment change:-5.8K vs prior +36.6K
• Participation rate:65.0% vs prior 65.1%
• Average hourly wages for permanent employees:+2.0% YoY vs +3.0% expected; prior +3.0%

The Canada employment report for August was weaker than expected. Employment fell by 41.7K, well below the expected gain of 15.0K, with losses in both full-time and part-time positions. Full-time employment declined by 35.9K, while part-time employment fell by 5.8K.

Despite the decline in employment, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at…

• Prior was -23K
• Two-month net revision +55K
• June was +57K
• Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.1% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 4.1%
• Unrounded unemployment 4.1413% vs 4.0900% prior
• Participation rate 61.6% vs 61.4% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 7.7% vs 7.9% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +3.1% y/y vs +3.0% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.3 expected
• Change in private payrolls +127K vs +45K expected
• Prior private payrolls +30K 
• Change in manufacturing payrolls +16K vs +5K expected
• Government payrolls +35K vs -53K prior

Ahead of the report, fed funds futures were pricing in a 50% chance of a September rate hike and 32 bps of hikes this year. USD/JPy was trading at 156.13 and S&P 500 futures were up 2…