Market News

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.03%, Shanghai Composite up 0.35% Hang Seng up 2.15% ASX down 0.15%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,520.09 (-0.46%) Silver at $67.336 (-0.55%), Brent Oil at 95.97 (0.48%), WTI Oil at 91.98 (0.73%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.766, UK 10-year yield at 5.1404, Germany 10-year yield at 3.3500

●        (USD)     Unemployment Claims  206K to 205%  expected

U.S. stock futures were little changed Thursday evening as investors turned their attention to August’s closely watched payrolls report.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 3 points, or 0.01%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.03% and Nasdaq-100 futures declined…

US Stocks Rally on Dovish Waller Comments – Nasdaq up 1.4%

US equities moved higher in trading yesterday following comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated that he would support leaving interest rates unchanged at the next meeting should incoming data confirm that inflation continues to cool. The comments helped ease concerns around the prospect of further monetary policy tightening, with the Dow rising 1.18% to 53,686, while the S&P 500 gained 1.06% to close at 7,747. The Nasdaq outperformed, advancing 1.40% to 26,584.

Treasury yields declined modestly as expectations around the Federal Reserve shifted. The US 2-year yield fell 3.2 basis points to 4.337%, while the 10-year yield declined 1.0 basis point to…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 04 September 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The overnight U.S. session was dominated by a softer labor-market signal from ADP, shifting Fed expectations, and persistent U.S.–Iran tensions. The weak 38K private payroll gain pressured the USD and Treasury yields while supporting gold, whereas elevated oil prices continued to create an inflationary risk that could prevent the Fed from becoming too dovish. U.S. equities nevertheless recovered as yields eased.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Friday’s Asian session could be dominated by yen strength, BoJ rate-hike expectations, oil/geopolitical risk, and positioning ahead of U.S. NFP. The yen is currently the standout currency after its sharp…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar weakened across the board yesterday following surprisingly dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller. While he adopted a more hawkish stance at the beginning of the summer, yesterday he sounded less inclined to raise rates.

He said that he has finally been seeing signs of disinflation and added that he would not want to raise rates into a disinflationary environment. He said he would be willing to wait another month to “give disinflation a chance”. He also mentioned that the September rate decision will depend on the upcoming CPI report. If the data comes in hot, he would consider a rate hike.

Rate hike probabilities for …

EUR/USD

• 1.1700 (EUR 1.78 bn)
• 1.1600 (EUR 3.13 bn)
• 1.1500 (EUR 1.75 bn)

USD/JPY

• 157.00 (US$ 2.19 bn)
• 155.00 (US$ 2.94 mn)

GBP/USD

• 1.3615 (GBP 439.22 mn)
• 1.3500 (GBP 315.47 mn)
• 1.3400 (GBP 304.19 mn)

USD/CAD

• 1.4000 (USD 781.48 mn)
• 1.3800 (USD 1.28 bn)

USD/CHF

• 0.8150 (USD 548.73 mn)
• 1.8050 (USD 313.98 mn)

AUD/USD

• 0.7250 (AUD 737.92 mn)
• 0.7200 (AUD 1.33 bn)
• 0.7100 (AUD 1.19 bn)

NZD/USD

• 0.5900 (NZD 221.69 mn)

WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?

The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.

When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that…