Market News

The clock is ticking on the USMCA joint review and Scotiabank just released a comprehensive report that's worth a read.

"The future of [USMCA] is the single most consequential macro uncertainty facing the Canadian economy this year," the report says.

The good news first: Scotiabank's baseline is that USMCA gets ratified or extended with limited adjustments that don't materially change the macro trajectory. They're explicit about this — the agreement is mutually beneficial and much of the recent US rhetoric looks like bargaining posture rather than a genuine signal to blow the deal up.

But "low probability" isn't "no probability," and the report's scenario analysis shows why even a small chance of a bad outcome demands attention. Their…

CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper is highlighting something that markets should keep in mind:

"If I just look back over the last 24 hours of the operation compared to the where we were to start, ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90%... Drone attacks have decreased by 83%... we’re now up over 30 ships [destroyed]."

He also highlighted one of the goals of the operation:

"[Trump] gave us another task — to raze or level Iran’s ballistic missile industrial base. We’re not just hitting what they have, were destroying their ability to rebuild...we will systemically dismantle Iran’s missile production capability for the future, and that’s absolutely in progress."

How hard are they hitting?

"In just the last 72 hours, America's bomber…

Is this the start of the end?

Trump also said that further action to reduce pressure on oil is imminent.

Trump talked about a 4-5 week schedule but he hates:

• High oil prices
• Falling stock prices
• The market pricing out rate cuts (down to 36 bps from 60 bps before war)
• War in general

In contrast to Trump, Hegseth is saying they have only just begun to fight and will fight decisively. But we all know that Trump is the decision maker.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• US stocks close lower but rebound into the close
• Crude oil settles at $6.35 higher or 8.51% at $81.01
• Kristi Noem is replaced as Homeland Security Secretary.
• Pres. Trump not looking to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR)
• European indices close sharply lower after reversing earlier gains
• Oil jumps above $78 helped by reported attack on Bahrain facility
• Energy and tech sectors drive mixed market movements
• Market Update: Gold reverses gains amid central-bank selling chatter
• Feds Barkin: Recent inflation data does raise doubts about whether the fight is over
• US unit labor costs for Q4 2.8% versus 2.0% expected. Productivity 2.8% vs 1.9% expected
• US import prices for January 0.2% vs. 0.2% expected. Export prices 0.6% vs 0.3% expected
• US…

Costco came in ahead on the top and bottom line in the after-hours report today. EPS landed at $4.58 vs. the $4.55 estimate, while total revenue hit $69.60B against the $69.27B consensus. Net income rose to $2.035B from $1.788B a year ago — a 13.8% jump.

The comp sales numbers are where it gets interesting for the macro view. Total company comps ex-gas and FX came in at +6.7%, well above the +5.9% estimate. Including gas and FX, comps printed +7.4% vs. the +6.72% consensus. The U.S. adjusted number was +6.4%, Canada +7.6%, and Other International +7.1%.

Digitally-enabled comparable sales surged 22.6% in Q2 (21.7% adjusted), showing the consumer is still spending and increasingly doing it online through Costco's platform.

Costco skews to the…

Major US stock indices are closing lower on the day, but well off the lowest levels. A late day fall in crude oil from a high of $82.16 down to the current level is $79.65 helped to shift the bias on hopes the worst has passed.

Looking at the major indices:

• Dow industrial average fell 784.67 points or -1.61% at 47954.74. At session lows the index was down 1162 points.
• S&P index fell -38.79 points or -0.56% at 6830.71. At session lows the index is down -98.72 points.
• NASDAQ index fell -58.50 points or -0.26% at 22748.99. At session lows, the index was down -307.19 points.
• Russell 2000 fell -50.43 points or -1.91% at 2585.57. At session lows, the index was down -75.01 points.

S&P components from strongest to the weakest.

🟢 Only 3 sectors green…

Crude oil crude oil futures settle at $81.01. That's up $6.35 or 8.51%. The gain is the largest since April 9, 2025. The high price reached $81.64. The low price was at $74.97. The price is trading at its highest level going back to July 2024.

Reports emerged that an oil facility in Bahrain’s Al-Ma'amir area was attacked, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to energy markets. Recently, crude oil prices showed some disconnect with the headlines. The market was less concerned thinking that damage would be minimal.

However, as trading progressed - and more reports about disruptions surfaced - the market shifted back to the familiar pattern where negative geopolitical news tends to push oil prices higher. That shift helped lift crude back…

Pres. Trump has replaced Homeland security Sec. Kristi Noem with Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullen.

Kristi Noem has been under political pressure due to several controversies involving immigration enforcement, spending decisions, and congressional scrutiny.

1. Immigration enforcement incident A fatal incident involving immigration enforcement agents triggered protests and raised questions from lawmakers about the use of force and whether the Department of Homeland Security has been fully transparent about what happened.

2. Border security advertising campaign Noem has faced criticism over a large DHS advertising campaign promoting border security that featured her prominently. Some members of Congress are questioning the cost and the process used to…

Pres. Trump has replaced Homeland security Sec. Kristi Noem with Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullen.

Kristi Noem has been under political pressure due to several controversies involving immigration enforcement, spending decisions, and congressional scrutiny.

1. Immigration enforcement incident A fatal incident involving immigration enforcement agents triggered protests and raised questions from lawmakers about the use of force and whether the Department of Homeland Security has been fully transparent about what happened.

2. Border security advertising campaign Noem has faced criticism over a large DHS advertising campaign promoting border security that featured her prominently. Some members of Congress are questioning the cost and the process used to…

Pres. Trump is saying that he is not looking to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve or SPR.

Trump's Chief of Staff Susie Wiles is also reportedly telling his advisors to bring ideas to the Oval Office to lower gasoline prices in the wake of the US attack on Iran. This is according to Politico citing sources.

Some ideas:

• A temporary holiday on the gasoline tax
• Using the US military to defend energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

The implications from creating problems by solving problems.

A gallon of regular gas has moved up from $2.89 a month ago to $3.25 today. That is a rise of 12.5%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Pres. Trump is saying that he is not looking to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve or SPR.

Trump's Chief of Staff Susie Wiles is also reportedly telling his advisors to bring ideas to the Oval Office to lower gasoline prices in the wake of the US attack on Iran. This is according to Politico citing sources.

Some ideas:

• A temporary holiday on the gasoline tax
• Using the US military to defend energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

The implications from creating problems by solving problems.

A gallon of regular gas has moved up from $2.89 a month ago to $3.25 today. That is a rise of 12.5%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Prior was 212K (revised to 213K)
• Continuing claims 1868K vs 1850K expected
• Prior 1833K (revised to 1822K)

Initial claims beat, while continuing claims miss. They are both in the range of estimates though and not showing any material change. The market reaction has been minimal as the focus remains on the US-Iran war.

Tomorrow, we have the US NFP report. The February jobs data up until now has been good as ADP beat expectations yesterday and the employment indices in the ISM PMIs have improved further.

WHAT DO JOBLESS CLAIMS MEASURE?

The US Jobless Claims indicator is a high-frequency economic report that tracks how many people are applying for state unemployment benefits. It is considered one of the most timely gauges of the health of the US…