Market News

This was out a few hours ago but it's important context in why oil prices are back near the post-war highs.

Previously on Wednesday, a report said that Iran had reached out the US about negotiations. They were Axios reports saying that Iranians had sent messages over the last few days but that the US didn't respond.

This report from Iran's Tasnim news agency cites an Iranian official who said:

"No ⁠message has been sent ​from Iran to the ​US, nor will any response be given to US messages. Iran's ​armed forces have prepared ​themselves for a long war."

Along those lines, Politico reports that the US has asked intelligence officers to post for 100 days. That's a much longer timeline than the 4-5 weeks that Trump floated but it could just be…

Chinese stocks are up more than 1% today after the National People's Congress revealed growth targets and some government priorities but now we're getting some details. Chinese consumer stocks are laggards so far, up around 0.5% but we're getting some notable headlines from the state planner now:

• Will improve the local tax system
• Will better leverage new policy-backed financial instruments and replenish the capital of major projects
• Will move consumption tax collection for some items down towards producers
• Will adjust and optimize the scope and rate of consumption tax

Again, we're not getting details here but it looks like some real action.

I can't remember a time when the national stock market of a large, developed country traded like this. The Kospi rose 12% at the open today and is still up 11.4%. That's after an 11% decline yesterday.

If this were a time of covid or there was a war in the Korean peninsula, these moves would be understandable but the war is 6500 kilometers away and the effects are only tangential via energy prices.

What's clear is that a mania swept over Korean stocks after years of ultra-depressed multiples. The gains were kicked off by memory stocks and the broader market taking a closer look at Samsung technology. That spread as local traders started trading with leverage and led to gigantic gains last year. Even if the index is cut in half, it still has…

Well, this is moving faster than anyone expected.

A federal trade court judge just told the Trump administration to start cutting checks — ordering refunds on the massive pile of tariffs the Supreme Court struck down last month. This is a significant potential bit of stimulus for the US economy as it relates to $130 billion.

Judge Eaton isn't in the mood to wait around. The the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade judge issued a written order directing the administration to begin the process of refunding importers and wants updates on Friday.

According to the WSJ, the government tried to get a pause while it appeals. Denied. A DOJ lawyer said they hadn't even figured out their position on refunds yet.

The China National People's Congress kicks off today and the five-year growth targets and plan are out, with Reuters obtaining a copy.

• 2026 GDP target set at 4.5% to 5%
• CPI target set at around 2%
• Growth rate set for 'reasonable rate' for the next five years
• Will set 2026 budget deficit at 4% of GDP
• Plan will stick to strategic aim of expanding domestic demand
• Will implement more proactive fiscal policy
• Unchanged quote on local government special bonds
• Will set up efforts to improve people's livelihoods
• Aims to achieve greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology
• Will address risks from real estate, local gov't debt, small and medium local financial institutions
• Will make fiscal policy play a positive role in boosting consumption and…

We are going to get a bounce in Asian stock markets today but the question is: How high.

Nikkei futures are trading at 56,310 versus the close yesterday of 54,245 in the cash market. That's a healthy 3.8% rally following a 3.6% decline yesterday. I should warn that cash prices don't always follow futures and with volatility this high, there will be two-way trading.

The chart tells something of the story. Yes, the decline yesterday was a blow but the index remains up 7.7% year-to-date and a whopping 45% in the past year. The market likes the low multiples in Japanese stock markets and some of the technology.

The Bank of Japan leader reiterated plans to continue with rate hikes and that's not a surprise given rising energy prices. The Japanese…

The Asia-Pacific economic calendar has only one highlight today and that's the Australian January trade balance in goods report. The consensus is a surplus of A$3.9 billion, in a solid improvement from +$3.337 billion in December.

Yesterday's price action in AUD was strange as it was a laggard despite the stronger GDP number. I tend to think the drop in gold prices and rout in mining stocks might have discouraged some of the thinking around an investment boom.

Naturally, all eyes remain on the Middle East but the market is clearly getting more comfortable with the risks around the war. Today, the US and Israel claimed "local air superiority" and said they've struck 1000 targets since Feb 28.

I wrote yesterday about the good news in the…

The price of crude oil has moved higher and moves back above $76.

• Iran's strikes will intensify and expand in coming days
• Thousands of Iraqi Kurds have launched a ground offensive in Iran
• Iran says it hit a US warship with missiles 600 km away. It is reported that the missile 7000 km range and can change course midflight. US warships would be easy targets in the Persian Gulf. That complicates the assurance that ships would be able to pass through the straight of Hormuz
• There is a report that Houthis in Yemen plan to attack vital targets inside Saudi Arabia using missiles and drones as they have done in the past.

The next target comes in at $76.59, a downward sloping trendline is near that level. Can above and it opens the door for a run…

• Major US stock indices close higher as the market discounts the geopolitical risks
• Bitcoin blasts through Key resistance. 38.2% retracement at $74,400 in sight
• Fed Beige Book: Overall economic activity increased at a slight/ moderate pace
• European indices rebound after two days of sharp declines
• White House submits nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair to Senate
• EIA Crude oil inventories 3.475M vs 2.305M estimate
• ISM non-manufacturing PMI for February 56.1 versus 53.5 estimate
• S&P Global composite PMI final 51.9 versus 52.3 preliminary
• Fed's Miran: Too early to have firm use about impact from Iran conflict
• Canada Labor Productivity rate for Q4 -0.1% vs -0.1% estimate
• The USD is modestly lower to kickstart the US session. What next for the major…

After most of the major European indices stretch to new cycle Heisler record highs at the end of last week, the today selloff on the back of the Iranian war was harsh. Looking at the percentage changes from the highs to the low prices reach yesterday shows:

• German DAX -7.10%
• France's CAC -6.43%
• UKs FTSE 100 -4.84%
• Spain's Ibex -9.0%
• Italy'sFTSE MIB - 7.60%

Yesterday, the price rebounded to the close, today that momentum has continued with solid gains to the upside.

Looking at the closing levels:

• German DAX, +1.74%
• France's CAC +0.79%
• UK's FTSE 100 +0.80%
• Spain's Ibex + 2.49%
• Italy's FTSE MIB 1.95%

Taking a technical look at the German DAX, the closing level of 24205.37 was back above its 200 day moving average at 24175.53. Staying above and getting…

The White House has submitted the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the Fed chair to the Senate

Recall, it was announced on January 30, 2026 that Kevin Warsh would be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair.

• January 30, 2026: President Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell when Powell’s term as chair ends in May 2026.

• The nomination still requires U.S. Senate confirmation before Warsh can officially assume the role.

• Warsh previously served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011.

It appears the urgency to fast-track Kevin Warsh’s vetting and approval—potentially to increase pressure on the Fed to cut rates—has faded as inflation remains elevated and growth and employment continue to show…

• Crude oil 3.475M vs 2.305M estimate. Last 15.989M
• Distillates 0.429M vs -2.596M estimate. Last 0.252M
• Gasoline -1.704M vs 0.784M last week.
• Cushing 1.564M vs 0.881M last week.

The private data released late yesterday showed:

• Crude +5.6M
• Distillates +0.5M.
• Gasoline -3.3 million
• Cushing +1.5 million

Crude oil is trading lower on the day after failing to sustain yesterday’s rally. The price extended to just below $78 yesterday, but today’s rebound stalled at $77.23 before sellers stepped back in. The session low has reached $73.28, keeping the focus on nearby technical support levels.

On the downside, the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the February 26 low at $63.60 comes in at $72.49. Yesterday the price briefly dipped below that level but…