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WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today: Bears Favored After Failed Push Above $91.31

Prediction score: -4 on a -10 to +10 scale

Bias: Bearish below $90.00, with stronger confirmation if WTI remains beneath the $89.93-$90.13 decision zone

WTI crude oil futures have shifted toward a short-term bearish setup after briefly trading above the previous session's $91.31 value-area high and then reversing through several important price references. I currently favor sellers below $90.00, but the compressed $89.93-$90.13 zone may produce noise before the next clearer move.

Key takeaways for crude oil traders today

• Bearish activation: Below $90.00, ideally followed by sustained trade under $89.93.
• Immediate decision zone:$89.93-$90.13, where the developing…

Gold prices are starting today on a stronger foot, buoyed by the rebound yesterday - especially in US trading. At some point, gold touched a near four-week low at $4,282 this week but is now seen trading back up to $4,420 levels today. So, what's behind the rebound in gold and what does the chart has in store for us next?

• The fundamental push: Gold has been suffering in the past week due to soaring bond yields globally. That has weakened appetite for holding gold, which pays zero interest. At the same time, a stronger dollar channel also works against the precious metal.
• The technical play: Gold's retreat since Jackson Hole sees price fall back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, before arresting the drop near the 50.0 Fib…

• Switzerland August CPI +0.4% vs 0.0% m/m expected (Prior -0.1%)
• Switzerland August CPI +0.8% vs +0.5% y/y expected (Prior +0.4%)
• Switzerland August core CPI +0.4% y/y (Prior +0.3%)

The surge in petrol prices was the key factor driving up Swiss inflation in August, with that seen 25% higher compared to the same month a year ago. As such, headline annual inflation is seen doubling in August compared to July.

However, there was only a slight increase in core annual inflation. And this is the more important metric, one that the SNB looks at more closely to decide on monetary policy setting.

For now, the big picture outlook remains that Switzerland is still sitting very close to the bottom of the SNB’s 0% to 2% definition of price stability. So,…

It's an eventful start to the day in the major currencies space, with USD/JPY once again drawing all the attention. The currency pair fell by nearly 1% in overnight trading, with a wave of selling hitting right before the US open in particular.

So, what is happening that is causing the fall in USD/JPY here?

As mentioned early yesterday, the push above the 160.00 level is a dangerous game for USD/JPY. It's all a psychological play at the moment and any attempts to run too far, too fast to the upside may invite intervention risks from either Tokyo and/or Washington.

So, that is one consideration. And as mentioned as well, we could be seeing rate checks from Tokyo to at least give fair warning to traders perhaps. That sort of signal may be what…

As we get into the second half of the week, the bond market continues to be a key spot to watch. The big story this week is how bond yields have surged to multi-year highs globally, with some even hitting multi-decade highs. In case you missed it: The tectonic shift that is taking place in the bond market

The moves in the bond market have the potential to drive other markets and that is precisely what we're seeing since overnight trading as well. After hitting those highs, yields are now coming off the boil a little today. And that is affording broader markets with some breathing room.

USD/JPY is being driven back lower to 157.70, not least due to intervention risks as well, and gold is also now seeing a modest rebound and is up 1.1% to…

USD/JPY's break below 157.70 looks like a genuine repricing story rather than an intervention scare, with BOJ board member Takata's call for nimble rather than fixed-pace hikes doing most of the work on the yen side. That sits alongside a dollar that has its own reasons to be soft right now. New York Fed President Williams's comments earlier this week, framing the Treasury yield surge as a function of economic strength rather than dysfunction and stopping short of committing to a September hike, read as less hawkish than some had wanted, and are likely a contributing factor in the broader dollar pressure feeding into this move. Layered on top of that is the geopolitical picture, where Trump's private discussions about declaring the Iran…

• Yen extends gains below 157.80 as BOJ hawks and less hawkish Fed voices collide
• WSJ reports Trump privately weighs declaring Iran war over (50,000 troops to keep options open)
• China's RatingDog services PMI beats strongly as domestic demand offsets soft export growth
• Oil popping higher as Kuwait reports missile and drone attacks
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7807 (vs. estimate at 6.7167)
• Bitcoin and Ethereum slide as US Iran war simmers & rate hike odds rise
• Yen support: Japan services PMI hits five-month high as inflation strengthens BOJ hike case
• CNN report US military escorts 40 tankers with 18 million barrels through Hormuz
• Fed's Williams calms market nerves, says Treasury yield surge reflects strong economy, not distress
• <a href="https://investinglive.com/forex/aud-nzd-tests-key-resistance-after-rbnz-sell-the-fact-hike-and-australia-gdp-beat"…

Just a little satire....; )

Trump on Truth Social is now posting:

Now that we have it under U.S.A. control, should we change the name Hormuz Strait to TRUMP STRAIT??? Like America itself, it would be “hotter” than ever before! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Why so limited? It is time to rename the World to "Trump" instead.

Is the Strait fully open again?

Meanwhile, crude oil is trading at $90.80. That's up $0.60 or 0.65%. That is off the session lows at $88.97. The price on the day before the start of the Iran war was at $67.02. At current prices, it is up $23.78, or 35.48% since the start of the war.  Brent crude was at $72.48 on February 27. Brent crude is currently at $95.42. That is up $22.92, or…

Today's RatingDog services beat completes the week's China data set and reinforces the pattern already seen in the manufacturing PMIs, private and export oriented surveys running hotter than the state weighted official readings. This divergence is worth tracking rather than resolving in either direction, since it likely reflects genuine differences in panel composition, private surveys skew toward smaller, more externally exposed firms, rather than one series being right and the other wrong. For AUD, a China proxy currency through the iron ore and broader commodity trade, the composite print hitting 52.1 is supportive at the margin, offering some offset to Monday's softer official non-manufacturing read and reinforcing the case that…

This is a meaningful signal for the oil and broader risk narrative, since it suggests the White House itself may be looking for an offramp even as the Pentagon quietly prepares for the conflict to run well into next year. The two threads point in different directions and that tension is the trade. A declared end to hostilities, if that's what it is, would likely see a sharp unwind of the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in Brent and WTI, alongside relief in equities and pressure on havens like gold. But the Hegseth reporting suggests the military planning assumption is the opposite, an open ended presence designed to preserve Trump's optionality rather than wind down. Given Iran has shown no sign of backing down and both sides…

Announcement from the coutnry's military:

• Kuwaiti air defenses are responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks
• any explosions heard the result of air defense systems intercepting hostile targets

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This'll test the more bearish oil news we've had:

• CNN report US military escorts 40 tankers with 18 million barrels through Hormuz

The pullback in BTC and ETH looks like a straightforward risk-off move rather than anything crypto specific, tracking closely with weakness in equities and the jump in Treasury yields this week. Both assets remain up sharply for the quarter despite the drawdown, so this reads as a pullback within an uptrend rather than a trend reversal so far, though the scale of the K33 reported drop in Bitcoin's spot volume is worth watching as a sign of thinning conviction. The most actionable driver for traders is the shift in Fed rate expectations, since crypto's lack of yield makes it particularly sensitive to repricing around the September 15 to 16 meeting. Separately, and this is context from earlier in the week rather than the latest 24 hours,…