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The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.
The combination of stronger growth and near record cost pass through is the key signal here for BOJ policy watchers, and Fiddes explicitly linked the data to a strengthening case for another rate hike. This is a yen supportive data point on its face, since it reinforces the narrative of accelerating domestic inflation pressure alongside decent growth momentum, a combination that gives the BOJ more room to tighten. That said, the export orders detail complicates the picture, with new export business contracting at its sharpest rate since November 2020, suggesting external demand and yen weakness are cutting both ways, weighing on exporters while also inflating import linked costs. Traders should watch upcoming BOJ commentary closely, since…
The fixing mechanism matters most right now because of what it has been signalling over recent weeks. The PBOC set its reference rate at the widest weak side deviation from market estimates in six months in late August, after the yuan touched a three and a half year high, a clear sign of discomfort with the pace of gains rather than the level itself. Traders should read this as the central bank applying the brakes rather than attempting to reverse the broader trend, since the yuan has still risen a meaningful amount against the dollar this year. The balancing act Beijing faces is straightforward: a stronger currency helps with capital stability and import costs, but too rapid a rise risks eroding export competitiveness at a time when the…
This reinforces the theme already running through Wednesday's oil price action, that the market has increasingly absorbed the idea that workaround supply routes can keep crude flowing despite the conflict. Eighteen million barrels escorted in a single day compares to a pre-war flow of around 20 million barrels daily through the strait, suggesting US military operations are helping restore something close to normal throughput even as Iran continues to contest the waterway. That is a bearish input for the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in Brent and WTI, since it undercuts the disruption narrative that has been a key driver of this week's price gains. However, the caveat matters just as much as the headline figure: shippers…
Williams carries particular weight here given his role as a permanent FOMC voter and the New York Fed's closer proximity to market plumbing, so his framing of the yield spike as an economy driven move rather than a liquidity or dysfunction problem should calm the more alarmist readings that have circulated recently. Worth noting, US equities rose the same day Williams made these remarks, though the read on his comments is not straightforwardly bullish. "Yields are rising because the economy is strong" could be taken as bullish for stocks, consistent with a strong economy and an AI driven capex boom, or it could just as easily be read as raising rate hike odds, generally a headwind for equities, especially rate sensitive names. If…
AUD/NZD remains the cleanest expression of this week's South Pacific diverging narratives, and the pair's push toward the resistance zone marked on the daily chart is the standout technical story. The rally has been driven by the combination of Wednesday's stronger than expected Australian GDP print and a classic sell the fact reaction to the RBNZ's fully priced rate hike. Thursday's data flow reinforces rather than challenges that setup.
We've had some data this morning:
New Zealand's terms of trade shock, a far larger decline than expected, adds a fresh headwind for the kiwi on the trade side, while a firmer set of Australian PMI figures lends modest support to the Aussie leg. Neither release looks large enough on its own to force a…
The renewed exchange between Washington and Tehran has pushed both benchmarks to their highest levels since late July, though the price action remains two way rather than a clean breakout. Brent is running into what looks like resistance around current levels, a zone that also capped rallies back in early June and again around July 23, so bulls will want to see a decisive close above this area before reading too much into the latest strength. The larger than expected US crude draw adds a supportive fundamental layer alongside the geopolitical premium. However, commentary from traders suggests the market has increasingly priced in that workaround supply routes can offset near term disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, which may be…
This is a reserve relocation rather than fresh buying, so it does not change global gold supply or demand in isolation, but the framing matters. DNB's explicit reference to geopolitical unrest and crisis preparedness adds to a broader theme of central banks reducing reliance on US and Canadian custody, which has been a slow burn narrative supporting gold sentiment over recent years. The move follows growing central bank scrutiny of holding reserves in North America since tensions escalated between Washington and its trading partners. Watch for whether other European central banks follow with similar disclosures, as a pattern across several banks would carry more weight than a single move. In isolation, this is more a signal of shifting…
The comments reinforce rather than reverse the market's initial read of Wednesday's decision. NZD had already sold off sharply despite the 25bp hike to 2.75%, as traders judged the RBNZ's gradual OCR track too tame relative to pricing for further tightening. Breman's remarks that the Bank can now take time to assess the impact of the two back to back hikes confirm that a pause is live, which should keep NZD offered against both AUD and USD in the near term. Her warning on inflation expectations getting out of hand offers some two way risk, but markets are likely to treat it as a standard hawkish caveat rather than a signal of imminent action. AUD/NZD remains the cleanest expression of the divergence, having already pushed to its highest…
The data release of note due today, Thursday, September 3, 2026, from the Asian timezone is the private sector services PMI survey from Rating Dog / S&P.
Look back recap: this week's China PMI data
Monday brought the official NBS releases for August. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, up from 49.2 in July and slightly ahead of the 49.7 consensus. It marked a second straight month in contraction territory (sub-50), but the underlying detail was constructive: output and new orders both flipped back into expansion, and new export orders followed suit. The soft spot remained employment, still contracting. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (services and construction) held flat at 49.0, weighed down by a construction slowdown that Beijing attributed…
US stocks closed higher, with the gains extending beyond the largest technology names. The Russell 2000 led the way with a 1.13% advance, while the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted more modest gains. The Nasdaq 100 lagged with a 0.23% increase. That relative performance points to a day when buying interest spread into smaller companies and other parts of the market.
The closing levels showed:
Dow industrials: 53,067.32, up 295.05 points or 0.56%.
S&P 500: 7,666.69, up 35.21 points or 0.46%.
Nasdaq Composite: 26,217.83, up 118.05 points or 0.45%.
Russell 2000: 2,953.18, up 33.05 points or 1.13%.
Nasdaq 100: 29,143.33, up 66.11 points or 0.23%.
Among the bigger winners, several groups stood out:
Technology and AI infrastructure: Dell was…