Market News

EURUSD traders have been doing their ABCs today: using familiar technical levels to decide where to buy, where to sell, and where to get out if the trade does not work.

As the North American session began, I highlighted how the EURUSD had held its 100-day moving average during the European morning. The low reached 1.1567, just above the moving average at 1.15665.

For a beginner, a moving average smooths out price changes to help traders judge direction and identify potential support or resistance. The 100-day moving average reflects the average closing price over the last 100 trading days. Today, it acted as support—a level where buyers stepped in and stopped the decline.

What does it mean when traders “lean against” that level?

They buy near…

The Fed's Beige book ahead of the September meeting characterizes the economic activity with the following:

• Economic activity increased modestly since early July.
• The outlook for the coming months was positive, but sentiment was mixed across sectors.
• Contacts reported heightened uncertainty surrounding higher energy prices, policy and international conflict.
• Employment rose very slightly overall.
• Three districts reported modest gains in employment, four reported slight gains, and five reported no change.
• Prices increased moderately in eight districts.
• Two districts reported modest increases in prices, one reported slight increases, and one reported robust increases.

The Fed’s Beige Book is a snapshot of how the U.S. economy is doing,…

There is a slew of headlines coming out of Washington as the Trump administration fights fires on multiple fronts. From beef prices to Chinese subsidies, Venezuelan oil, AI data centers and the bond market, officials are offering explanations, defending policies and touting hopes for what comes next.

The common thread? There are plenty of plans. Delivering the results is the next step.

• Beef imports are creating a political headache. According to Fox News, USTR Jamieson Greer told lawmakers the move to import more beef is temporary. Meanwhile, Politico reports that Republican lawmakers want to speak with Trump and White House staff about the plan, with farm-state Republicans warning it will hurt American farmers. The administration wants…

Bitcoin buyers had a strong run higher, but they are now losing some steam. To restart the bullish engine, they need to reclaim two key short-term technical levels—and stay above them.

The rally gained momentum on August 19, when Bitcoin moved above both its 100-day moving average near $66,200 and its 200-day moving average near $69,000 in a single day. A moving average smooths out price fluctuations to help traders judge the trend. Breaking above both was an important bullish development, and buyers followed through, pushing Bitcoin to $81,455 on August 28—its highest level since May.

Since that peak, however, the price has been moving up and down without extending the rally. It has also crossed below and back above its 100-hour and…

I believe that you have to believe in something. Belief is not just tied to things like religious faith (I believe in God), but to other things like marriage, driving is safe, and numerous other things in life.  

For traders, a belief is that price action tells a story about buyers and sellers.  I believe that is true because if the buyers are overwhelming the sellers, the price goes higher. Conversely, if the sellers overwhelm the buyers, the price goes down. That is a story that I truly believe in. 

Now taking it a step further:

Do I believe the story that tools applied to the price action tell a story about buyer and sellers and also tell a story about bias, risk and targets. I would say, prove it to me. 

In this video, I take a look at…

Just a little satire....; )

Trump on Truth Social is now posting:

Now that we have it under U.S.A. control, should we change the name Hormuz Strait to TRUMP STRAIT??? Like America itself, it would be “hotter” than ever before! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Why so limited? It is time to rename the World to "Trump" instead.

Is the Strait fully open again?

Meanwhile, crude oil is trading at $90.80. That's up $0.60 or 0.65%. Apparently, crude oil traders have not gotten the memo.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem commented on inflation risks and the outlook for monetary policy following the BOC’s rate decision. His comments could impact the value of the CAD. 

• Inflation is too high.
• Inflation is very concentrated in gasoline and oil prices.
• Risks are shifting, and we are prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed.
• The bigger issue for inflation is what is happening in the Middle East, how long oil prices stay high, and how high they go.
• We have to keep our eye on inflation; it is running too high.
• Where we go on rates will be guided by our inflation forecasts and the risks around those forecasts.
• Recent bond route shows more than one thing happening at once.
• Central banks tolerance for higher inflation is…

The weekly inventory data from the EIA showed:

• Crude oil inventories fell -4.450 million barrels versus -1.085 million estimate.
• Gasoline inventories fell -1.173 million versus -1.850 million estimate
• Distillates rose 0.796 million versus estimates of a drawdown of -1.275 million.

The private data released late yesterday showed:

• crude oil inventories -2.6 million
• Gasoline inventories +300,000
• Distillates -300,000.

A larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories generally supports higher oil prices. Why? Inventories are oil held in storage. When those supplies fall more than anticipated, it can signal tighter supply or stronger demand. However, the inventory report is only one influence on prices.

Crude has rebounded from today’s low of…

The opening statement from Macklem

Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss today’s monetary policy decision.

Since our last decision in July, the conflict in the Middle East has persisted without a clear path to resolution. Closer to home, the United States has imposed new tariffs on Canadian exports, and the Canadian government has responded with proportionate counter-tariffs and new supports for hard-hit businesses and workers.

Against this background, the Governing Council assessed the economic data since our last decision, the evolving risks to the outlook, and the implications for monetary policy.

With recent data coming out largely in line with our July forecast, we decided to maintain…

The USDJPY has "made a break for it"—and for traders learning technical analysis, the move offers a useful lesson in how a break develops, where to look for targets, and how to respond when momentum fades. The same dynamic can be applied to any instrument from currencies, to stock indices, to crypto, to individual stocks. A technical break is a technical break in any instrument. The skill is recognizing them and you do that by technical analysis.  

For the USDJPY, the starting point was the 200-hour moving average at 159.457. Earlier today, buyers leaned against that level and held support. The same moving average also stalled a decline last Thursday. Those repeated holds gave traders a reference point: buyers were defending the level, and…

• Prior month -0.2% revised from -0.3%
• Factory orders 0.9% versus 0.6% estimate.
• Durable goods for July 1 .1% versus 1.1% preliminary. Last month 0.5%
• Durable goods ex defense 1.3% versus 1.3% preliminary. Last month 0.3%
• Durable goods ex transportation 0.4% versus 0.4% preliminary. Last month 1.1%
• Durable goods nondefense capital ex air 0.0% versus 0.2% preliminary. Last month 1.7%

The July report shows stronger overall demand for U.S. manufactured goods, but a softer signal for business investment. Factory orders beat expectations, although some of the strength came from transportation, while a key measure of equipment investment was revised lower.

Here is what the numbers mean:

• Factory orders: +0.9% versus +0.6% expected. This is the broad…

Heading into a key event, traders look to both the fundamental story and the technical levels for clues. The news provides the catalyst. The price action helps reveal how the market is interpreting it, while the technical levels help define the bias, the risk, and the next targets.

For the USDCAD, the clues have been pointing higher over the last few weeks. The breakdown in trade talks between the US and Canada has contributed to Canadian dollar weakness, pushing the pair to the upside. A rising USDCAD reflects a stronger US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar.

The technical picture reinforced that bullish bias on Friday and again yesterday, when buyers leaned against support near the 200-hour and 200-day moving averages. The 200-day…