Market News

The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged. Below is the full statement from the central bank.  The press conference with Tiff Macklem will begin at 10:30 AM ET.  Full Statement from the BOC: 

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

The continuing conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices high. As well, new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures have been announced following the breakdown of trade talks between Canada and the United States. Both situations remain fluid.

In the United States, economic growth continues to be solid, driven by consumer spending and AI-related investment. Growth in the euro area was stronger than expected in the…

Headlines:

• The tectonic shift that is taking place in the bond market
• Gold futures are down more than 8%: Is the next dip-buying opportunity approaching?
• S&P 500 breaks through a major support as hawkish Fed expectations and US-Iran war weigh
• Wall Street poised for another soft start as higher bond yields continue to bite
• USD/JPY corrects lower but remains skewed to the upside; faster BoJ tightening needed to reverse the trend
• ECB policymaker Makhlouf says upcoming policy decision will not surprise anybody
• BOJ policymaker Takata says need to consider a broad range of options on monetary policy response
• IRGC claims that another two oil tankers have been disabled after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz

Markets:

• 10-year Treasury yields +0.6 bps to…

Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole didn’t surprise, with the Fed chair saying inflation still isn’t slowing sustainably, so there’s more work to do. His focus on core inflation moving toward the 2% target signaled the Fed could act more aggressively, pushing the odds of a September rate hike from 36% to 57% and sending the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones lower. 

And things would have looked even worse without Nvidia’s results, which beat expectations again, with second-quarter revenue more than doubling to $96.2 billion and its data center business hitting a record $89 billion.  

That said, although Nvidia warned of a temporary margin decline due to higher memory prices, it said the issue is still supply, not demand, and despite…

The US dollar is mixed against the three major currencies to start the day. The euro is down 0.13% and the pound is down 0.20% against the dollar, while the Japanese yen is stronger, with USDJPY down 0.35%.

The bigger move is in the New Zealand dollar, which is down 1.12% despite the RBNZ’s rate hike. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is weaker ahead of the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, where no change is expected. USDCAD is up 0.24% as traders await the decision and guidance on the path ahead.

In the video above, I take a look at the charts and outline the levels that will define the bias, define the risk, and tell us whether the buyers or sellers have control.

The key overnight change is a widening U.S.–Iran military exchange, with Gulf…

I know some of you may have tried to fish for that bottom on gold... it does not seem it's there yet

Key takeaways for gold traders and investors

• Current bias: Bearish control after a failed recovery attempt.

• Directional score:-6 on a scale from -10 to +10, with medium confidence.

• First bullish test: Buyers need to reclaim and hold 4,360-4,361.

• Stronger reversal evidence: Sustained acceptance above 4,377-4,380 would make the recovery more credible.

• Main downside risk: A decisive break below 4,329 could make 4,297-4,287 more relevant.

Precious metals are facing a sharp structural test across the board as hawkish central bank signals and surging yields rattle market participants.

As Giuseppe Dellamotta at investingLive.com pointed out in his <a href="https://investinglive.com/commodities/silver-erases-all-treasury-led-gains-as-hawkish-warsh-retightens-financial-conditions-focus-turns-to-us-cpi-report/" target="_blank"…

Things are looking down again for Wall Street today, with US futures pointing lower ahead of the open later. S&P 500 futures are down by 0.3% with Nasdaq futures down by 0.6% currently.

On the charts, the fall this week isn't all too damaging after the jump higher in August. However, there is plenty of caution up in the air - not least with the surge higher in global bond yields in the past week.

For some context: The tectonic shift that is taking place in the bond market

US 10-year yields are continuing to push up, rising to 4.81% now - the highest since October 2023. And that is being accompanied by a surge higher in yields in the likes of Europe and Japan too.

It is not so much a singular event but a wave that is taking over, and that can…

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Ethereum dropped on Friday after Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

The key passage was him saying "I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive". The market interpreted that as him leaning against the recent easing in financial conditions and, therefore, retightened them.

As you recall, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies, rallied strongly on “debasement” fears following the US Treasury buyback announcement to suppress long-term yields.

Warsh’s speech has triggered a reversal in the "debasement" trades, with gold and the US dollar returning to pre-US Treasury…

For the better part of two decades, traders and investors had a cruel reminder from markets that being right and making money are not always the same thing.

And that reminder often came from the Japanese bond market, and what was often dubbed as the "widowmaker" trade. Back then, when everyone looked at Japan, this is what they saw.

A country with massive government debt, extremely low interest rates, and bond yields that looked impossibly low as well. Most people had that eureka moment in thinking that at some point, that combination will make sense and Japanese bond yields will surely have to rise.

And the trade was to just short Japanese bonds and wait for reality to eventually kick into gear. Except that it didn't.

Fighting the BOJ

The BOJ…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

The S&P 500, and other major stock indices in general, has been under pressure since Friday after Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. He leant against the easing in financial conditions, which retightened them quickly. This process has, of course, weighed on the stock market as tighter financial conditions depress future growth expectations. The rate hike probabilities for the September meeting have also increased, with the market now seeing roughly a 67% chance of a hike.

Warsh has also reiterated that the Fed is focused solely on inflation now and mentioned that the progress has been slow. For this…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 2.98%, Shanghai Composite down 0.82% Hang Seng down 1.14% ASX down 1.05%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,353.01 (-0.09%) Silver at $64.260 (-1.60%), Brent Oil at 95.31 (4.06%), WTI Oil at 90.52 (0.33%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.808, UK 10-year yield at 5.2248, Germany 10-year yield at 3.3387

●        (AUD)     Company Operating Profits q/q

  1.8% to 2.0%  expected

U.S. stock futures were nearly flat early Wednesday after rising oil prices and Treasury yields pushed Wall Street lower for a third consecutive session.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 14 points, while S&P 500 futures were marginally…

easyMarkets has expanded its multi-asset offering with the launch of Gold24, Silver24 and Oil24, giving clients the ability to trade Gold, Silver and Oil CFDs 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

The launch comes as Gold and Oil continue to attract significant trading activity among easyMarkets clients. Gold was the platform's most traded instrument in Q2 2026, while Crude Oil ranked second, with Oil also emerging as one of the quarter's defining markets. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contributed to significant volatility and increased trading activity across the energy sector during the quarter.

The market activity highlights how developments affecting commodities can emerge outside conventional trading hours, from…