Market News

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

 

USD:

The US dollar strengthened across the board on Friday after Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

The key passage was him saying "I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive". The market interpreted that as him leaning against the recent easing in financial conditions and, therefore, retightened them.

This process has, of course, extended the corrections in the "debasement" trades, with the US dollar returning to pre-US Treasury announcement levels. The rate hike probabilities for the September meeting have also increased, with the market now seeing a 67% chance of a hike.

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ETF Inflows Are Breaking Records in 2026: What Does That Tell Investors?

Last updated: September 2, 2026

Today I was looking at the latest data that confirms that ETF demand is not only rising, but accelerating. Global ETF and related ETP net inflows reached a record $1.71 trillion in the first seven months of 2026, while Europe and active ETFs also set records. The shift points to demand for lower-cost, flexible portfolio tools, but it does not automatically mean investors are well diversified. Let's check out what we can learn from this trend.

Key takeaways for young investors

• The trend is real: Global ETF and ETP inflows through July 2026 were the highest on record and far ahead of the same period in 2025.

• Diversification is an important…

Another day, another story about vessels being struck down in the Strait of Hormuz. That as Iran continues to send a message that if the US continues to escalate tensions, they will hit back at where it hurts most.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is out again claiming that another two oil tankers have been brought to a halt after striking mines in the strait. The accompanying statement reads:

"The IRGC Navy had previously warned of the dangers of passing through the mined channel. Additional punitive measures have also been prepared for shipping companies that, instead of using the authorised route, are deceived by the United States and place their vessels at the enemy’s disposal. These measures will be implemented soon."

It…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 September 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The Asian session is being driven by a mix of positive Australian growth data and a dovish RBNZ hike, alongside a much stronger geopolitical risk-off theme. Australian GDP beat expectations, helping the AUD, while the RBNZ’s 25bp hike to 2.75% failed to support the NZD because traders viewed the policy guidance as insufficiently hawkish. Consequently, AUD/NZD has been one of the clearest FX movers. At the same time, renewed U.S.–Iran fighting has pushed Brent above $95, strengthened the USD, lifted Treasury yields, and pressured Asian equities and gold.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Today’s market is likely to remain highly volatile.…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

 

Silver sold off on Friday after Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

The key passage was him saying "I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive". The market interpreted that as him leaning against the recent easing in financial conditions and, therefore, retightened them.

This process has, of course, extended the corrections in the "debasement" trades, with silver returning to pre-US Treasury announcement levels. The rate hike probabilities for the September meeting have also increased, with the market now seeing roughly a 67% chance of a hike.

Warsh has also reiterated…

US Stocks Hit as Yields Rise – Nasdaq down 1%

US equities declined in trading yesterday as escalating tensions between the US and Iran weighed on risk sentiment and pushed global energy prices and bond yields higher. The Dow Jones fell 0.79% to 52,766, while the S&P 500 declined 0.71% to 7,631 and the Nasdaq fell 1.03% to 26,099.

Treasury yields moved higher across the curve as markets responded to further US strikes on Iran and the potential inflationary implications of higher energy prices. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 5.9 basis points to 4.400%, while the 10-year yield increased 4.8 basis points to 4.798%. Both yields reached their highest levels since January 2025, reinforcing pressure on equity markets and increasing…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 02 September 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The overnight market was primarily a risk-off, inflationary environment. Rising oil prices from the U.S.–Iran escalation increased inflation concerns, while higher Treasury yields and expectations of Fed tightening supported the dollar and pressured gold and equities.

Manufacturing remained expansionary, and job openings were relatively resilient, but construction weakened, so geopolitics, oil, and Fed-rate expectations remained the dominant drivers. For today’s session, traders should pay close attention to ADP employment, the Bank of Canada decision and press conference.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The RBNZ’s 25-bp hike to 2.75% is the key…

Many new traders assume that a currency should rise after a rate hike and fall after a rate cut. In reality, financial markets react to how a central bank decision compares with what traders were already expecting.

A good example is today's Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision. The central bank raised interest rates, yet the New Zealand dollar weakened. Many new traders were surprised because they focused only on the rate hike itself.

However, the market was already fully expecting the increase. What weakened the NZD was the statement containing less hawkish language, and the new OCR projections remaining unchanged. Relative to expectations, the overall decision was more dovish than expected. 

PREPARATION

Before…

What is happening in the bond market in the past week is something that every trader and investor should stand up and take notice. While there is still a heavy focus on the US-Iran conflict, the stock market and AI, as well as central banks, the bond market might well be sending a big message to broader markets at the moment.

And that is we should be prepared for a new era in fixed income. One that will be defined by higher-for-longer interest rates and yields.

For the longest of time now, markets have grown accustomed to the landscape of low yields and low inflation. That led to the era of easy money, which was only exacerbated by the Covid pandemic.

But fast forward to a couple years later now, the scars are starting to show and they are…

The currency pair tried to take a firm run above the 160.00 mark earlier in the day, with the high touching 160.40. That was the highest point since 31 July, when the US and Japan acted in joint intervention to bolster defense of the Japanese yen currency.

There was a bit of a pullback after but now we're seeing a quick drop in USD/JPY to 159.60 in the past 20-25 minutes:

Is it perhaps a rate check from Tokyo again? Or is it just some nerves starting to show up as traders are afraid to overstep the boundaries and invite action from either Washington and/or Tokyo again?

Either could be the case here and if it is the former, the effectiveness certainly is looking lesser this time around. And rightfully so.

For all of Japan's intervention…

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first is for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. Once again, the expiries don't tie to much technical significance. But as has been the case this week, they could still offer some pull or at least keep price action holding thereabouts if we do see any price extensions in the session ahead.

The bigger picture fit for EUR/USD is still seeing price action be more confined between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages at 1.1566 and 1.1631 respectively.

So, the expiries sit in between that and has a minor role to play in pulling price movements when there isn't all too much else to work with before the main focus turns to the US jobs report later this week.

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