The data release of note due today, Thursday, September 3, 2026, from the Asian timezone is the private sector services PMI survey from Rating Dog / S&P.
Look back recap: this week’s China PMI data
Monday brought the official NBS releases for August. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, up from 49.2 in July and slightly ahead of the 49.7 consensus. It marked a second straight month in contraction territory (sub-50), but the underlying detail was constructive: output and new orders both flipped back into expansion, and new export orders followed suit. The soft spot remained employment, still contracting. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (services and construction) held flat at 49.0, weighed down by a construction slowdown that Beijing attributed partly to extreme weather.
Tuesday’s private RatingDog Manufacturing PMI told a rosier story. It climbed to 51.5 from 50.9, beating the roughly 51 forecast and marking a two month high. New orders extended a 15 month growth streak, the longest since 2018, helped by the fastest rise in export orders in six months. This survey skews toward smaller, more export oriented firms, which explains the divergence from the more state heavy NBS panel.
Look ahead preview: today’s release
The RatingDog Services PMI (formerly Caixin) lands today. Given the official non-manufacturing print was soft and construction is dragging, there’s a case for a similarly muted private services read, though the RatingDog survey has been running hotter than its NBS counterpart all year on the export facing manufacturing side.
AUD angle
AUD is one of the cleanest liquid proxies for China sentiment, given the trade linkage through iron ore and broader commodities. A strong beat today would reinforce this week’s narrative of resilient external demand and should support AUD, particularly AUD/USD and AUD crosses against funding currencies. A miss, especially if services confirms the NBS softness, would weigh on AUD given the sector represents the bulk of Chinese GDP and household demand, even if manufacturing holds up.
Check out the charts above, you can see the key levels setting up for AUD ahead of the data.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.