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The delay strips traders and policymakers of the government's most granular read on US crude production, imports, exports and state level output for several weeks at minimum. That gap matters more than usual given how tight the supply picture already looks, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 44 year low and Strait of Hormuz shipping still disrupted by the US Iran conflict. The Weekly Petroleum Status Report keeps headline inventory and supply figures flowing, so the market is not flying blind, but the loss of the fuller monthly breakdown adds a layer of uncertainty to output estimates at a moment when precision matters. Expect analysts to lean more heavily on private surveys and weekly data until the delayed report lands.

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Private…

Via oilprice.com:

The expected for the headline I had seen was a draw of -0.82mn bbls:

The major US stock indices are closing lower led by the NASDAQ indices and small cap Russell 2000 the worst performers.  A sampling of some of the declines shows:

• SharkNinja (SN): -9.13% at $174.92
• Credo Technology (CRDO): -8.65% at $206.63
• Cadence Design (CDNS): -7.60% at $313.04
• Whirlpool (WHR): -7.10% at $37.94
• CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD): -6.90% at $215.07
• Dell Technologies (DELL): -6.80% at $425.00
• Strategy (MSTR): -6.03% at $124.93
• Coinbase Global (COIN): -6.00% at $176.84
• Ciena (CIEN): -5.87% at $360.33
• Synopsys (SNPS): -5.63% at $414.82
• Datadog (DDOG): -5.57% at $223.84
• Fortinet (FTNT): -5.31% at $161.85
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW): -5.25% at $362.08
• Oracle (ORCL): -5.23% at $141.32
• Shopify (SHOP): -5.12% at $139.82
• Block…

Australian GDP data is due, for the months of April, May and June. 

But, the focus today is on the RBNZ decision. A rate hike is expected, but that is not unanimous. 

Earlier:

• Preview: Westpac sees RBNZ hiking OCR to 2.75% tomorrow, data dependent from there
• Preview - Path of least resistance: ASB expects consensus RBNZ hike this week
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Shadow Board split, most back 25bp rate hike this week
• Preview: Inflation and growth strength point to further RBNZ tightening, BNZ says
• 90% of economists expect RBNZ hike on September 2, poll shows

As mentioned, Australia's Q2 GDP lands today, and consensus has settled in the 0.2-0.4% q/q range, NAB the pessimist at 0.2%, CBA and ANZ at 0.4%, J.P. Morgan splitting the difference at 0.3%.…

As crude oil rises above $90 (the has reached $90.60) and the risks of high inflation as a result of a persistent and consistent war that will never end, has helped to push the 10 year yield higher. Today the yield has extended up to 4.80% for the 1st time since January 2025. That is also just short of the January 2025 high at 4.823%. Move above the 422 3% in the next stop is 5% for the 10 year yield.

Looking at the 4-hour chart above, the 10-year yield has broken above the 4.60%–4.75% consolidation range that had contained trading since July 21. The bond bears are taking control—and remember, higher yields mean lower bond prices.

The key now is the 4.75% level. A move back below that breakout level would disappoint the bond bears and raise…

President Trump - on a call with Fox News - said that if Iran retaliates against the most US retaliation from Irans retailiation, that they will be "totally wiped out as a country".  

He says:

• If they do respond, they'll be hit much harder
• He characterized today's hit a being very big, and if they go a third time, they're going to be totally wiped out as a country.
• He adds that an agreement with them isn't worth the paper it's writtne on.  
• We gave them a lot of chances
• The USS George Washington is loaded to the gills (with munitions).

Since an agreement is not worth the paper it's written on, it does not seem like there is no out.

The IRGC meanwhile says that the US will regret its new attacks 

A look at the markets:

• Dow -0.84%
• S&P -0.80%
• NASDAQ…

The USD is moving to a new high vs most of the major currencies helped by rising oil, higher yields from increase military tension in the middle east.  

Oil prices are nearly up $4 on the day and approaches the $90 level. Yields remain elevated with the two-year up 3.7 basis points, the 10 year up 3.4 basis points.

US president Trump said that the US is currently striking Iran targets near the Strait of Hormuz and that the strikes are larger and powerful. The attacks are in retaliation for Iranian attacks which were in retaliation for US attacks on Iran. The vicious circle continues.

In the video above I take a look at each of the major currencies vs the USD including the 

• EURUSD
• GBPUSD
• USDCHF
• USDJPY
• USDCAD
• AUDUSD and 
• NZDUSD

and talk to…

In his TruthSocial post Pres. Trump confirms the striking of Iranian targets saying:

The United States is, as we speak, striking Iranian Targets near the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes are large and powerful, and in retaliation for the Iranians’ failed attempt at adding sea mines to the Strait, which currently has no mines (They have been completely removed or detonated!), and the Iranians shooting eight missiles, all successfully knocked down, at our Military Base in Jordan. If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings and, when it is over, there will be very little left of the…

Gold is down nearly $100, trading near $4353 after reaching a session low of $4326.38. Today’s decline has pushed the price back below its 100-day moving average at $4379.81, giving sellers more control.

Gold last moved above that moving average on August 19. Yesterday, buyers leaned against the level and sparked a bounce to $4464. Today’s second test, however, brought a different result. Buyers could not hold support, and sellers pushed through.

The 100-day moving average now becomes the key barometer. If buyers are to regain control, they need to get—and stay—back above that MA at $4379.81. Until then, the break keeps the sellers in charge.

On the hourly chart, the next downside target is the 50% midpoint at $4319.75, followed by the…

The price of crude oil is moving higher and stocks are moving lower on reports of an American attack on Iran. There are sounds of explosions heard in Chabahar and Bandar Abbas according to  local reports.

The price of crude oil has moved to a high of $89.85. The current price is trading at $89.72. That's up close to $4 on the day. The low price was at $86.70.

US stocks have dipped with the NASDAQ index now down to hundred 6 points or 0.79% at 26167. It is still of its lows at 25995.53. The NASDAQ 100 is down 328 points or -1.11% at 29127. That to is off it low at 28992.25

Treasury Sec. Bessent after meeting with BOJ Ueda said:

• He emphasized the importance of sound formulation and communication of monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations
• Expressed strong support for Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to address the substantial undervaluation of the yen.
• The role of the Yen weaknesss in contributing to domestic inflationary pressure in Japan.

Yesterday Bessent said that the Fed does not tend to raise rates due to supply shocks implying the Fed did not need to tighten policy.  He also commented how the 10 year yield is near the rate at the start of the administrations term.  He seemed to imply the Fed did not need to tighten which was somewhat counter to the Fed Chair comments last week.  He also…

The AUDUSD is moving back toward its broken 200-hour moving average, setting up an important test for both buyers and sellers.

The pair has largely used that moving average as support since breaking above it on July 30. There have been several tests and some modest breaks, but buyers have generally defended the level.

Yesterday, buyers stepped in against the moving average and pushed the price higher into the close. That recovery continued into the Asia-Pacific session, where the pair tested its 100-hour moving average—the blue line on the chart above. However, sellers leaned against that level and took back control, driving the price below the 200-hour moving average and opening the door for a sharper move lower.

The decline stalled near…