Market News

From the G20, US Treas Sec. Bessent is saying:

• I think that Japan is taking right steps for economy.
• G20 ministers one more growth.
• Unclear whether G20 ministers will take steps necessary to achieve higher growth.
• Imbalances created by some countries are reducing growth elsewhere.
• Rest of the world needs to take steps to protect trade, factory jobs from China's exports.

China’s President Xi Jinping is expected to meet President Trump in the U.S. on September 24, 2026, according to Trump’s announcement. The date remains tentative pending final arrangements, according to more recent reporting.

Canada's Carney is standing his ground. Says:

• Asked about US officials insulting Canada, says "It's beneath their office"
• We can start having trade discussions with the US when Americans stop doing memes, stop throwing shade, stop trying to be tough and start being serious.
• US terms in trade talks meant Canadian industries either would become US subsidiaries or would be wound down.
• We never thought we had a full trade deal with US during the talks that Canada walked away from.

Of course Pres. Trump in response to the trade deal breaking down, renamed Lake Ontario to Lake America. Treasury Secretary Bessette has also been dismissive:

• August 31 — Bessent dismissed Canada’s ability to retaliate: “I don’t think you can be in a tit-for-tat with…

• Prior month 0.0% revised from -0.1%
• Construction spending for July -0.5% versus 0.0% expected

Details from the US Census:

• Total construction spending fell -0.5% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,157.6 billion, from June’s revised $2,167.7 billion.
• Spending was down 3.8% from July 2025.
• Year-to-date spending totaled $1,244.6 billion through July, down 3.5% from the same period in 2025.

Private construction data for the month of July: 

• Private construction spending fell 0.5% to $1,614.2 billion.
• Private residential spending declined 1.3% to $859.0 billion, leading the overall pullback.
• Private nonresidential spending rose 0.4% to $755.2 billion, providing a partial offset.

Public construction data for the the month of…

• Prior month  55.6
• ISM manufacturing PMI for August 54.6 versus 55.2 estimate.
• Employment index 51.2 versus 53.0 estimate. Last month 52.8
• New orders 53.7 versus 56.7 last month

Summary of the components vs last month and the changes

• Manufacturing PMI: August 54.6 vs July 55.6. Down 1.0 point MoM.
• New Orders: August 53.7 vs July 56.7. Down 3.0 points MoM.
• Production: August 58.3 vs July 58.5. Down 0.2 point MoM.
• Employment: August 51.2 vs July 52.8. Down 1.6 points MoM.
• Supplier Deliveries: August 59.3 vs July 58.9. Up 0.4 point MoM.
• Inventories: August 50.6 vs July 51.2. Down 0.6 point MoM.
• Customers’ Inventories: August 42.8 vs July 40.7. Up 2.1 points MoM.
• Prices: August 71.1 vs July 71.1. Unchanged MoM.
• Backlog of Orders: August…

• Prior month 7.182 million
• JOLTs job openings for July 7.271M vs 7.300M estimate. 

Details from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Job openings: Little changed at 7.3 million in July, with the openings rate steady at 4.4%. Durable goods manufacturing openings increased by 76,000.
• Hires: Little changed at 5.1 million, with a hiring rate of 3.2%. Professional and business services hiring fell by 188,000, a softer detail.
• Total separations: Little changed at 5.1 million, with a rate of 3.2%. No significant changes across industries.
• Quits: Little changed at 3.1 million, with the quits rate at 1.9%. Quits in other services declined by 46,000. Workers showed no increased willingness or ability to leave their jobs.
• Layoffs and discharges: Little…

• Prior month 53.9
• Preliminary estimate for manufacturing PMI 53.2
• S&P global manufacturing PMI final 53.9

Details from S&P Global on the survey report:

• S&P Global US manufacturing PMI held at 53.9 in August, signaling another solid expansion in operating conditions.
• Production increased for the 15th consecutive month, but growth slowed to its weakest pace since February as higher prices and tight supplies weighed.
• New orders rose at a solid pace, little changed from July, with demand largely driven by the domestic market.
• Export orders declined for the 14th consecutive month. Tariffs weighed on foreign sales, although some firms reported improving demand from Europe.
• Supply pressures persisted, with delivery times lengthening markedly. Firms…

Fed Governor Michael Barr’s comments:

• Inflation remains too high.
• Favors holding rates steady if confident inflation is moderating.
• The labor market is stable, with low unemployment.
• The economy is growing solidly, boosted by artificial intelligence investment.
• If inflation does not moderate soon, it will be time for an interest rate hike.
• Persistent inflation above target creates risks.

Fed Governor Michael Barr’s comments lean more hawkish, with a rate hike on the table if inflation does not moderate soon. Although he would favor holding rates steady if inflation is moving lower, his warning that persistent above-target inflation creates risks puts the burden on the data to show improvement.

Meanwhile, solid economic growth, AI…

ECB's Nagel is speaning and says:

• Despite tensions in the middle east, the global economy remains on a growth trajectory.
• Easing in core and services is good news and not seeing second-round effects
• He welcomes coordinated intervention on the JPY
• He expects consultations on future intervention measures

The USDJPY remains above its 100 day moving average at 160.01.

For the EURJPY, it has been trading above and below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 185.57 and 185.63. The converged moving averages are begging for the next a shove. On the downside, the 100 day moving average comes in at 185.099. Below that and the 100 and 200 hour moving averages on the 4 hour chart are near 184.85 in 184.76 followed by the 200 day moving average of…

The USD is higher against all the major currencies as September trading gets underway. US yields are mostly higher, crude oil is extending its gains, and gold and silver are moving lower. In the morning Kickstart video, I take a look at the technical picture for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, outlining the levels that define the bias, the risk and the next targets.

The USD’s gains against the major currencies are:

• EUR: +0.19%

• JPY: +0.21%

• GBP: +0.09%

• CHF: +0.22%

• CAD: +0.17%

• AUD: +0.28%

• NZD: +0.30%

The USD is the strongest of the major currencies, while the NZD is the weakest. The GBP is holding up the best against the greenback.

The low-to-high trading ranges are:

• EURUSD: 1.1589 to 1.1624 — 35 pips.

• USDJPY: 159.65 to 160.14 — 49 pips.

• GBPUSD: 1.3530 to…

• S&P 500 analysis (with video) shows bears are back but where is the next bounce?
• Bitcoin at crossroads after hawkish Warsh: traders waiting for 77K-80K range break
• Euro area inflation climbs above 3% in August on higher energy prices
• UK mortgage borrowing slows in July, though consumer borrowing continues to hold up
• Euro area factory growth continues to expand in August, driven by Germany - PMI data
• USD/JPY continues to test the waters at the 160 mark
• France manufacturing confirmed to pick up a little in August - PMI data
• Stock Movers to Watch Today: PCG and EIX Plunge as RBLX, CRWD, TSLA and SLB Rally. Notable earnings reporters later today.
• Italy August preliminary CPI +3.3% vs +3.3% y/y expected
• UK August final manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs 51.5…

Why Are Global Bond Yields Rising? A Step-by-Step Guide to Bonds, Interest Rates and Stocks

Global government bond yields are climbing because investors want more compensation for inflation, expected interest-rate increases, heavy government borrowing and the uncertainty of lending money for many years. The move may look orderly, but it can still raise borrowing costs and reset valuations across bonds, stocks, mortgages, currencies and other investments.

Key takeaways for investors and traders

• A bond is a loan: Buying a government bond means lending money to that government.

• Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions: When existing bond prices fall, their yields rise.

• Higher yields have mixed effects: They hurt some existing…

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin dropped on Friday after Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The key passage was him saying "I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive". The market interpreted that as him leaning against the recent easing in financial conditions and, therefore, retightened them.

As you recall, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, rallied strongly on “debasement” fears following the US Treasury buyback announcement to suppress long-term yields. Warsh’s speech has triggered a reversal in the "debasement" trades, with gold and the US dollar returning to pre-US…