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It's the first Friday of the month and that means it's time for non-farm payrolls. It's a holiday today in much of the world and US stock and bond markets are closed, so that will make for an interesting released. The FX market has been quiet so far today and S&P 500 futures are down 17 points. Those will be two of the spots I'm watching in the aftermath of the release.

Some quick reading:

Why are non-farm payrolls being released on Good Friday? Here's what's open and what isn't

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?

Preview: February non-farm payrolls by the numbers. A Good Friday report

• Prior -92K (revised to -133K)
• Two-month net revision -7K
• January was +126K (revised to +160K). December was -141K
• Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.4% expected.
• Prior unemployment rate 4.4%.
• Unrounded unemployment % vs 4.441% prior
• Participation rate 61.9% vs 62.0% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 8.0% vs 7.9% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +3.5% y/y vs +3.7% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.2 vs 34.3 expected
• Change in private payrolls +186K vs +70K expected
• Change in manufacturing payrolls +15K vs -5K expected
• Government payrolls -8K vs -6K in February

Sectors:

• Health care: +76K vs -28K prior
• Construction: +26K vs -13K prior (revised from -11K)
• Social assistance: +14K vs +9K prior (revised to +5K)
• Financial…

China’s services sector remains in expansion but is slowing, with domestic demand supporting growth while weak exports, falling employment and price discounting point to softer underlying momentum.

Summary:

• China Services PMI eases to 52.1 (prev 56.7), still expansionary
• Growth slows sharply from February’s 33-month high
• Domestic demand remains the key driver of activity
• New export orders slip back into contraction
• Employment falls for a second straight month
• Cost pressures remain modest, allowing firms to cut prices
• Business confidence stays positive despite softer momentum
• Composite PMI also slows but remains in growth territory

Earlier this week:

• China official March PMIs returned to expansion
• China private manufacturing PMI in…

Japan’s services sector remains in expansion but is losing a little momentum, with weaker demand growth, rising energy-driven costs, and sharply lower business confidence signalling a more uncertain outlook.

Summary:

• Japan Services PMI eases to 53.4 (prev 53.8), still solid expansion
• New orders growth slows to a three-month low
• Cost pressures intensify, driven by energy and Middle East conflict
• Selling price inflation remains elevated but eases from peak
• Business confidence drops to lowest since pandemic
• Employment growth softens amid weaker demand momentum
• Composite PMI also slows, confirming broader moderation

Japan’s service sector continued to expand in March, though momentum showed early signs of softening as rising cost pressures…

It's a sparse agenda in Asia. Much of the region is out for the Good Friday holiday.

But Japan is open.

From Japan and China its Services PMIs. Earlier this week:

• Japan’s manufacturing in expansion but losing momentum
• China official March PMIs returned to expansion
• China private manufacturing PMI in expansion for 4th straight month, but slows

• US initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate
• US February trade balance -57.30 billion vs -61.00 billion expected
• Canada February trade balance -5.74B vs -2.25B expected
• Trump: The biggest bridge comes tumbling down. It is time for Iran to make a deal
• Iran drafts protocol with Oman for Strait of Hormuz traffic
• Fed's Williams: Monetary policy is well-positioned to manage risks
• Baker Hughes total rig count 548 versus 543 previously
• Pres Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi
• Fed's Logan: I wasn't convinced inflation was easing enough even before the war started
• Tesla Q1 deliveries 358K vs 372K expected

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up $11.25 to $111.38
• Gold down $84 to $4672
• S&P 500 up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 1.8 bps to 4.30%
• USD leads, GBP lags

The key to…

Trump is reported to have fired Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi. Fox news reports that he is eyeing Lee Zeldin as a replacement, but Todd Blanche is reportedly the interim AG.

Trump has reportedly been frustrated with Bondi's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, and Zeldin's name has come up most frequently in discussions of potential replacements, though no final decision has been made.

About Blanche

Current Role: Blanche is the 40th Deputy Attorney General of the United States, a role he assumed in January 2025 to oversee the daily operations of the Department of Justice and its various agencies, including the FBI and DEA. He was additionally appointed as the Acting Librarian of Congress in May 2025, though the legality of that appointment has…

Baker Hughes weekly rig count data shows:

• Total rigs 548 vs 543 last
• Oil rigs 411 vs 409 last week
• Nat Gas 430 vs 427 last week.

The price of crude oil is trading at $110.75. That's up $10.60. The gain today is the highest since March 6. The high price reached $113.97. The high price from March 9 reached $119.48

Tomorrow is one of those rare calendar collisions: the March non-farm payrolls report is released at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday — a day when the stock market is closed.

Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday almost every year since 1864. It's the only stock market holiday that isn't also a federal holiday. The date moves around because it's tied to the lunar calendar — and this year it falls on April 3.

The BLS releases the employment situation report on the third Friday after the week containing the 12th of the month, which is usually the first Friday of the month. This time, that's also April 3.

The last time this happened was 2023, with previous occurrences in 2021, 2015, 2012, 2010, 2007, and 1999.

What's open tomorrow

The government is open.…

Trump on Truth Social posts:

The biggest bridge in Iran comes tumbling down, never to be used again — Much more to follow! IT IS TIME FOR IRAN TO MAKE A DEAL BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE, AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF WHAT STILL COULD BECOME A GREAT COUNTRY! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Earlier, Iran Pres. Pezeshkian said that Iran is not seeking to expand the scope of tension and war in the region. That came after Iran said it carried out drone attacks on US fighter jets at Al Azraq base in Jordan.

Iran also listed potential responses to US/Isreal being

1. destruction of the enemy's scientific and technological centers in the region with a focus on Dubai
2. Counter-attack on scientific facilities in Israel

The back and forth…

A report that's getting some of the credit for the bounce in risk assets is from IRNA and says that Iran has drafted a protocol with Oman for traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs confirmed the report but framed it more as housekeeping than some kind of war-ending effort. He said that even in peaceful conditions, traffic should be monitored.

"Of course, these requirements will not mean restrictions, but to facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships that pass through this route," he said.

I think if you're buying risk assets on this, that's grasping at straws and the S&P 500 briefly touched positive but is now down 15 points. It's been a very volatile day…

There is a bounce in the war trade after the market open. It's a tough one because it's a long weekend and tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report is also a tricky one (though I don't think it matters that much).

The big question is: Will Trump escalate or cut-and-run? For most of this week, the market was pricing in Trump declaring victory and walking away, leaving Europe, Asia and the Gulf states to clean up the Hormuz mess. Yesterday though, he talked about bombing Iran back to the stone age and that certainly sounds like escalation, and certainly not a basis for a ceasefire.

So oil prices shot higher but notably, they've come in a couple bucks in the past hour. Even more notable is the Treasury market, with 2-year yields now flat on the day…