Market News

New Zealand February building permits +2.7% m/m (prior +1.9%)

• +22.9% y/y

UK increases minimum wage to 10.85 GBP. A 1500GBP boost for more than 200K young workers

• Trump invites countries to get the Hormuz oil themselves; he won't help anymore
• Iran's Pres.: Iran seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against attacks
• Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi: We will not accept a ceasefire, want a complete end to war
• China and Pakistan presented a new Iran initiative to end the war - report
• JOLTs Job openings for February 6.882 million versus 6.918 million estimate
• US March consumer confidence 91.8 vs 88.0 expected
• US January CaseShiller 20-city house price index +1.2% vs +1.3% y/y expected
• Fed's Schmid: Inflation is the more salient risk for the economy
• Trump: The Strait of Hormuz will automatically reopen after US exit
• Iran's Revolutionary Guard names 18 American tech companies for retaliation
• Goldman…

The Bank of Japan is watching Tankan developments closely. We'll get the latest report today.

Later is the private survey China manufacturing PMI for March from RatingDog. Yesterday the official PMIs all improved:

• China factory activity hits 1-year high as PMIs return to expansion

Axios reports that Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met today in Beijing with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. At the end of the meeting they published a joint peace initiative that includes a five-point plan halting the use of force and opening the Strait of Hormuz.

There are strong hints the US isn't opposed but no official word.

Trump declined to comment on specifics but told Axios "negotiations with Iran are going well," which is about as close to a tacit endorsement as you'll get from this White House. Reading between the lines: Pakistan has been the key US-Iran mediator throughout this conflict, and they wouldn't be launching a joint initiative with Beijing if Washington had a problem with it.

The five points are what you'd…

• We will not accept a ceasefire but rather seek a complete end to the war, not in Iran alone but in the entire region
• We have not responded to the US proposals, nor submitted any counter-proposals or conditions."
• Have received text messages from Witkoff, that doesn't mean we're negotiating
• The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and closed only to those who fight us
• There will be difficulties in rebuilding trust with neighbors but we're confident we will
• Says Tehran ready for ground confrontation

This doesn't sound like anything new as it's in-line with what's been said for weeks.

On the US side though, there are more murmurs that they're confident in ending the war.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country is ready to end the war, but only if there are guarantees against future attacks. This isn't particularly new as it's been Iran's position for awhile. There was a WSJ report about security guarantees late last week and there has been talk that China has been contacted to provide the guarantees (no word on whether they're willing) or possibly Pakistan.

Since early March, he laid out 'three pillars' for peace, which were the recognition of "legitimate rights" like peaceful nuclear rights, reparations, and firm international guarantees.

The difference now is that we've heard it directly from the President, which may be a communication strategy change that is laying the groundwork, or the…

• Iran (President Pezeshkian - comments are unconfirmed): Says Iran seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks
• Accusations against US/Israel:
  • Calls military actions unprecedented crimes and violations of international law
  • Claims Iran engaged in good-faith talks before being attacked
• Regional criticism:
  • Says countries hosting U.S. bases failed to prevent their use for attacks on Iran
• Stated solution:
  • End to aggression as the path forward
  • Iran willing to end conflict if security guarantees are provided
• Message to Europe:
  • Urges Europe to abandon its current approach
  • Calls for professional engagement aligned with international law

In other headline news that is not so good is:

• Iran threat (via Fars News):
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• Other nations can reopen the Strait
• Asked about reopening the Strait said "I do not think about it, to be honest" and that his sole goal was nuclear weapon
• More work to do in Iran war
• US doesn't have to be in Iran much longer

Here is the article in the New York Post.

• “We’re not going to be there too much longer. We’re obliterating the s–t out of them right now, it’s a total obliteration"
• “But we won’t have to be there much longer — but we have more work to do in terms of killing their offensive, whatever offensive capability they have left.”
• “Well, I think it’ll automatically open, but my attitude is, I’ve obliterated the country. They have no strength left, and let the countries that are using the strait, let them go and open it… because I…

Iran's Revolutionary Guard named 18 companies for retaliation after strikes against its companies:

1. Cisco
2. HP
3. Intel
4. Oracle
5. Microsoft
6. Apple
7. Google
8. Meta
9. IBM
10. DEL
11. Palantir
12. Nvidia
13. JP Morgan
14. Tesla
15. GE
16. Spire Solution
17. G42
18. Boeing

It's not clear if this is a warning about striking its companies or something else but Iran warned employees and civilians within 1Km to leave and vowed to strike these corporate facilities in retaliation for any assassinations in Iran.

We are seeing a selloff in these names but it coincides with a broader pullback in today's market rally. The S&P 500 had been up 110 points but that's down to 62 points with everything under pressure.

For Palantir, Microsoft, and Google, Iran specifically cited their involvement in defense contracts (like…

• Prior month 6.946 million revised up to 7.240 million
• JOLTs job openings for February 6.882M vs 6.918M estimate
• Hires 4.849M vs 5.347M last month
• Separations 4.971M versus 5.144M last month
• Quits 2.974M vs 3.137M last month
• Layoffs and discharges 1.721M vs 1.660M last month.

The JOLTs job openings fell sharply from 7.240M last month to 6.882M this month. Prior month was revised higher from 6.946M previously reported. Lower job openings is indicative of a weakening labor picture.

Here are the February 2026 (p) changes for the major categories:

• Total: -358
• Total private: -307

Industry Breakdown (thousands) showed that all industries show declines with the exception of professional business services:

• Mining and logging: -12K
• Construction: -28K
<li data-section-id="1iq8bo9" data-start="221"…

• Prior was 91.2 prior

Details:

• Present situation
• Expectations
• Jobs plentiful
• Jobs hard to get

US consumer confidence opened 2026 on shaky ground. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index plunged 9.7 points in January to 84.5, its lowest reading since May 2014 and well below the 91.1 level economists had forecast. The decline reflected growing anxiety over geopolitical tensions, persistent affordability pressures, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty. All five components of the index deteriorated, with the Present Situation Index dropping to 113.7 and the Expectations Index falling to 65.1 — well below the 80 threshold that has historically signaled recession risk.

February brought a modest rebound, with the headline index rising 2.2…