Market News

The results of the $44 billion sale of seven-year notes are out and this one was a bit better with only a 0.3 bps tail after tails of 2.0 bps and 1.3 bps in sales of 2s and 5s earlier in the week. It's not a pretty one though in the bond market with 2s up 8.8 jbps today to 3.97%, which could be the highest close since June (despite 75 bps in Fed easing).

The market is starting to price in rate hikes on a prolonged energy shock that bleeds into inflation. The curve now shows a 50% chance of a hike in October.

• Iran gave the US eight boats of oil
• "They said, to show you the fact that we're real and solid and we're there, we're going to let you have eight boats of oil."
• Iran said it would let eight boats of oil go through, suggests they were Pakistani flagged
• Then the apologized for something and sent two more tankers
• Ten tankers in all were given by Iran
• Asked about a new Iran deadline, says he will announce it

This follows up something he said Tuesday where Iran gave the US a 'present' and it meant he was talking to the right people. It was reported yesterday that the 'present' was tankers and that was speculated anyway. Of course, on a normal day there are 120 tankers exiting the Strait so it's an insignificant amount of oil in that…

• For the most part we are shooting down the drones
• We've done tremendous damage to the facilities where they manufacture drones
• They are begging to make a deal
• They are lousy fighters but great negotiators
• Every President for 47 years should have done this
• Not sure we are willing to make a deal
• We are very disappointed with NATO

More headlines as he delivers them.

Reuters cites an unnamed senior official from Iran following the rejection of the US proposal as a baseline for a ceasefire.

• Iran's assessment is that the US proposal is "one-sided and unfair", serving only US and Israeli interests
• Iran's initial response was conveyed via Pakistan is that the proposal lacks the minimum requirements for success
• There is still no arrangement for negotiations and no plan for talks appears realistic
• Turkey and Pakistan are trying to help establish common ground
• Diplomacy has not stopped and if realism prevails, a path forward can be found

The last line is slightly optimistic and perhaps that's what the market is running with. So far the mood in markets has been relatively good in US hours. We've seen oil prices off…

Here is a post from Tansim, translated:

• An informed source told Tasnim News Agency that Iran’s response to the 15-point proposal from the United States was formally delivered last night via intermediaries, and Iran is awaiting the other side’s reply.

• According to this source, Iran stated in its response that acts of aggression and assassination by the enemy must end; objective conditions must be created to ensure the war will not be repeated; compensation and war reparations must be guaranteed and clearly defined; and the end of the war across all fronts—including all resistance groups involved in the conflict throughout the region—must be implemented.

• The source added that Iran’s assertion of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is its…

Throughout this war, we've heard persistent reports that the US and Israel have different goals in Iran. The main evidence for that was Israeli strikes on oil storage facilities in Tehran. That drew a rebuke from Trump and he said on Truth Social that Israel would no longer be striking Iran's infrastructure.

Now a report from Al-Mayadeen -- a Beirut-based, pan-Arab satellite news channel -- says there is information that JD Vance and CIA director John Ratcliff are trying to remove Netanyahu from the American decision-making circle.

Meanwhile, a separate report cites a political-security source told Al Mayadeen that Marco Rubio is coordinating with Benjamin Netanyahu, and his team is advocating for adopting a “major military strike” as the…

Canada added 45,600 payroll employees in January, a solid rebound after December's 10,600 decline. It contrasts with the more-widely viewed LFS survey, which showed a 25K decline in January followed by an 84K decline in February. On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment was up by 33,500 (+0.2%) in January despite a decline in the population.

This report show growth but also some weakness below the surface. Educational services drove the bulk of the gain at +20,000, which could be a seasonal distortion after a cumulative 23,400 decline from August to December. Strip that out and you're looking at a much more modest increase. Construction continued its quiet run of strength with +8,100, extending a trend that's added nearly 24,000 jobs…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 26 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Markets react strongly to optimism around a US-proposed 15-point plan for a US-Iran ceasefire, which eased fears of escalation in the Middle East conflict. This led to a sharp drop in oil prices, boosting Asian equities across major indices like Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (+2.8%), South Korea’s Kospi (+2.7%), Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+1.4-2.9%), Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+1.9%), and others, with standout performers including AIA Group, SK Hynix, and Tokio Marine Holdings amid reports of Berkshire Hathaway interest.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Today’s European and U.S. trading sessions are being shaped by a somewhat de‑escalating…

• Initial jobless claims 210K vs 210K estimate
• 4 week moving averages of initial jobless claims 210.5K vs 210.75K last week
• Continuing claims 1.819M vs 1.851M estimate
• 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.847M vs 1.849M last week.
• The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 14 were in Kentucky (+3,305), Oklahoma (+1,201), Tennessee (+553), Nebraska (+357), and Ohio (+271),
• The largest decreases were in California (-4,397), Missouri (-3,217), New York (-2,909), New Jersey (-1,745), and Pennsylvania (-1,639).

The data this week for the continuing claims is for the survey week of March 14. The initial claims from last week were for the survey week. The initial claims are always one week more recent vs the continuing…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.35%, Shanghai Composite down 0.58% Hang Seng down 1.45% ASX down 0.17%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,540.50 (-1.00%) Silver at $71.805 (-1.14%), Brent Oil at $98.48 (1.27%), WTI Oil at $91.74 (1.55%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.355, UK 10-year yield at 4.8360, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9535

• (USD) Current Account  -191B  to -211B  expected

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Thursday after Iran signaled it had no intention of holding direct talks with the United States, even as Tehran reviewed a U.S. proposal aimed at ending the war, according to the country’s foreign minister. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi clarified…

Headlines:

• Trump: Iran better get serious soon, before it is too late
• Oil prices continue to eat into the Monday drop as market optimism dwindles
• S&P 500 erases most of the Monday's gains as optimism fades and weekend hedging begins
• USDJPY approaches the key 160.00 handle as Iran rejects the ceasefire and optimism fades
• BOJ set to release indicators for estimated core CPI every month now
• ECB policymaker Nagel: April rate hike is certainly an option but it isn't the only one
• BoE's Breeden: Current context different from last energy shock in 2022
• Germany April GfK consumer sentiment -28.0 vs -27.0 expected
• France March consumer confidence 89 vs 89 expected

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up over 3% to $93.35, Brent crude oil up 4% to $106.30
• European equities…