Market News

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 26 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a narrower-than-expected Q4 2025 current-account deficit of $190.7 billion (down 20.2% from Q3’s $239.1 billion), and the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted February import prices up 1.3% (driven by fuel and nonfuel rises) alongside export prices up 1.5%. These positive surprises on trade balances and price pressures, amid ongoing U.S.-Iran ceasefire hopes from President Trump’s negotiations and Strait of Hormuz updates, boosted risk sentiment despite Polymarket scrutiny over Trump-related bets.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Middle‑Eastern geopolitical headlines that could quickly re‑ignite…

Trump on Truth Social:

"The Iranian negotiators are very different and “strange.” They are “begging” us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only “looking at our proposal.” WRONG!!! They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty! President DJT"

Trump looks desperate to wrap up this war. He's been the only one "begging" for a deal this week. His "desperation" might even be seen as good as he keeps pushing toward a deal, but there's still the risk of a ground invasion and that would be a big escalation.

The Iranians are certainly suspicious…

• Global growth forecast seen at 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged), 3.0% in 2027 (previously 3.1%)
• US growth forecast seen at 2.0% in 2026 (previously 1.7%), 1.7% in 2027 (previously 1.9%)
• Eurozone growth forecast seen at 0.8% in 2026 (previously 1.2%), 1.2% in 2027 (previously 1.4%)
• China growth forecast seen at 4.4% in 2026 (unchanged), 4.3% in 2027 (unchanged)
• UK growth forecast seen at 0.7% in 2026 (previously 1.2%), 1.3% in 2027 (unchanged)
• Japan growth forecast seen at 0.9% in 2026 (unchanged), 0.9% in 2027 (unchanged)

For some context, the latest forecast shows that global growth is expected to ease from the 3.3% estimate last year as the US-Iran conflict is set to see energy prices surge for an extended period of time. The OECD noted that the…

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• Prior +0.6%
• GDP +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.8%

This reaffirms the more robust showing in Spain's economy to wrap up last year. The details show that domestic demand contributed 0.9% to quarterly GDP growth with external demand contributing -0.1%. Overall, the Spanish economy grew by 2.8% in 2025. And while that is not as strong as in 2024 (3.5%), it's still a solid number and reaffirms that the economy is holding up well despite plenty of other concerns elsewhere around the region.

All that being said, this is very much lagging data now. That as the US-Iran conflict has materially reshaped the whole entire global economic landscape for this year and at least in the foreseeable future.

Spain's economy was already dealing with a bit of a…

• Prior 91

At the same time, we also have the business confidence numbers for March as per below:

• Business confidence 97 vs 96 expected
• Prior 97
• Services confidence 96
• Prior 96
• Manufacturing confidence 99
• Prior 102

French household confidence eased back in March as the proportion of households who consider that prices will accelerate over the next twelve months has increased very strongly. That of course due to higher energy prices in relation to the US-Iran conflict.

The household perception of future prices jumped sharply from -29 in February to -1 in March. That is the highest reading since September 2022. So, that sort of puts things into perspective of how fearful consumers are feeling about inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, business confidence…

• Prior -24.7; revised to -24.8

Not much of a surprise there as German consumer sentiment deteriorated heading into April, largely due to concerns on higher energy prices. That as the Middle East conflict continues to drag on for longer, set to stretch into its fourth week soon. Households look to be bracing for higher prices at the pump and spillovers to other areas, with added concerns about the economic recovery in general.

The economic expectations index dipped back into negative territory, down to -6.9 from 4.3 in March. That is the lowest reading since December 2022. Adding to that, consumer income expectations also plunged to -6.3 from 6.3 in the month before. That as fears creep in on impacting household buying power.

GfK notes that:

The market mood is not as bad as it was when we returned from the weekend. However, it is not as hyped up as what it was made out to be when US president Trump claimed "very productive" talks with Iran on Monday. Amid the mixed messages from both sides, we're pretty much caught somewhere in between.

While Washington is talking up negotiations and its 15-point proposal, top officials in Tehran are adamant that they are not in direct or indirect contact with the US. However, Pakistani and Egyptian sources are claiming to try and mediate the situation with the former saying that Iran has received the peace proposal by the US and have not made a firm decision on that just yet.

Looking past all the noise, the fact of the matter remains that Iran…

• UAE warns Hormuz disruption is “economic terrorism” as tensions rise and rise
• WSJ: China sees opportunity as Trump’s Taiwan stance raises uncertainty
• China EV exports jump 120% in February as global demand accelerates
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9056 (vs. estimate at 6.9108)
• WSJ report that Trump targets swift end to Iran war while ramping up military pressure
• China's COSCO resumes Gulf shipping, signalling uneven reopening of Hormuz routes
• Oil rises as US escalation risk builds despite Trump ceasefire rhetoric
• Trump speaking, says Iran is negotiating and want a deal
• Big gold news ICYMI - Russia's Putin signs order to limit gold exports
• Trump-Xi meeting now set for May after delay tied to Iran conflict
• RBA warns Middle East conflict may…

WSJ (gated) flags Taiwan risk as China tests Trump’s transactional policy stance.

Summary:

• WSJ flags rising uncertainty in US Taiwan policy
• China sees opportunity in Trump’s approach
• Taiwan potentially part of broader negotiations
• Focus on subtle shifts in policy language
• Arms sales pause signals softer stance risk
• China increasing military and diplomatic pressure
• US distracted by Middle East conflict
• Policy ambiguity seen as destabilising risk

A detailed Wall Street Journal report highlights growing concern that US policy toward Taiwan may be entering a more uncertain and potentially transactional phase under President Donald Trump, creating what Beijing sees as a strategic opening.

The original piece is extensive and nuanced, but the…

China EV exports surge as global demand accelerates despite trade risks.

Summary:

• China vehicle exports up 61% YoY in Jan-Feb
• February exports rise 79% YoY to 750,000 units
• NEV exports surge 120% YoY in February
• 320,000 EVs exported in February alone
• Jan-Feb NEV exports reach 670,000 (+88% YoY)
• Strong global demand for Chinese EVs
• Competitive pricing and scale key drivers
• Trade tensions risk rising globally

China’s vehicle exports surged at the start of 2026, driven by a sharp acceleration in electric vehicle shipments, reinforcing the country’s growing dominance in global auto markets.

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, total vehicle exports reached 1.55 million units in January and February combined,…