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CNN International's Frederik Pleitgen -- the CNN journalist was recently inside Iran -- is out with a report and I'll quote it verbatim:

There has been outreach between the United States and Iran, initiated by Washington, in recent days but nothing that reached the level of full on negotiations, a senior Iranian source tells me. Messages have been received through various intermediaries to scope out whether an agreement to end the war, which is now in its fourth week, could be reached. The proposals being looked at are aimed not merely at achieving a ceasefire, but a concrete agreement to end the conflict between the US and Iran, the source added without going into further detail. The source refused to comment on US President Trump‘s…

There is non-stop talk of insider trading in markets, including a viral report about how volumes in stock and oil futures surged minutes before Trump's post about talks with Iran.

At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume and then at 7:05 am, Trump posted the announcement.

Now that story got plenty of attention but one that hit at nearly the same time: The enforcement chief of the SEC quit abruptly after just six months on the job because she wanted to go after insider trading.

Two of the people said Ryan wanted to be more aggressive in pursuing charges for fraud and other misconduct including in cases that touched the president's circle, but faced resistance…

All the media in Iran seem to indicate that ceasefire talks have been rejected but yesterday Trump sounded fairly confident that there were people who wanted them in Iran.

Now there's a newswire report citing Pakistani officials who were recruited by the US to broker talks. They acknowledged the media reports but also said that Iran hasn't officially responded and pledged to do so later today.

So there's still hope and it's certainly reflected in stock and oil markets at the moment.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Press TV reports that Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant has been struck again, but it's not clear if that damage is to the plant or the adjacent site.

According to the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, a projectile struck the facility around 21:08 on Tuesday, marking an alarming escalation in the US-Israeli terrorism against Iran’s civilian infrastructure.

As this news was hitting, US stocks were already under pressure. I don't know if that was because Trump told his friends that the ceasefire was off or whether the market finally got the message the Iran wasn't interested in ending the war yet.

But note the time in this report, it cites late Tuesday so it's not something that just happened as it's now Wednesday evening in Tehran.

In any…

Iran's Press TV is out with a report:

• Iran reviewed the US proposal and considers them excessive
• Iran will not allow Trump to dictate the timing of the end of the war
• Tehran delivered via regional intermediary that it will continue defending itself
• The first condition for the end of the war is end of attacks and assassinations
• Iran's defensive conditions will continue until its conditions are met
• Demand establishment of concrete guarantee preventing the recurrence of war
• Iran demands clear determination and guaranteed payment for war damage
• Demand's recognition of Tehran's sovereignty over Hormuz

I'm having a hard time seeing how this evolves into a ceasefire by the weekend. Then it's in Trump's hand about how much he wants to escalate.

Stock gains…

• Prior was +6156K
• Gasoline -2593K vs -2143K exp
• Distillates +3032K vs -1292K exp
• Refinery utilization +1.5% vs +0.4% exp

The API data from late yesterday:

• Crude +2300K
• Gasoline +500K

This report doesn't matter for the oil market right now. There is something like 9.5 million barrels of oil per day shut in officially right now and 15 mbpd that can't get through the Strait of Hormuz

For background, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes its Weekly Petroleum Status Report every Wednesday, typically at 10:30 AM Eastern Time. This report provides a comprehensive snapshot of U.S. petroleum supply and demand, covering crude oil inventories, refinery utilization rates, product supplied (a proxy for demand), and import/export volumes.…

FARS -- an Iranian semi-official, regime-aligned outlet was out with a report on ceasefire talks and it's led to some volatility in markets. The report was first out at 7:50 am ET but is getting some more attention in the past few minutes.

Here is what it says (translation):

🔹 Informed sources report increased efforts by the United States to establish a ceasefire and begin indirect negotiations with Iran, but emphasize that Tehran currently considers a ceasefire and negotiations to lack legitimacy.🔹 While U.S. diplomatic activity has intensified over the past five days—mediated by several countries to achieve a ceasefire—experts describe the shift in Donald Trump’s rhetoric as a sign of Washington’s retreat in the face of Iran’s resistance.…

• Highest since March of 2022
• Prices for nonfuel imports rose 1.1% in February
• Prior was +0.2%
• Export prices +1.5% vs +0.5% expected
• Prior export prices +0.6%

This is before the war. I'm starting to get the feeling we're about to have a big inflation problem as it was broad based. Higher prices for imports were driven by capital goods; nonfuel industrial supplies and materials; consumer goods excluding automotives; foods, feeds, and beverages; and automotive vehicles, parts and engines.

Import prices rose 1.3% month-over-month, blowing past the kind of readings we've been getting. That's the biggest monthly gain since the 2.9% spike back in March 2022, when post-COVID supply chain chaos was still ripping through the data. On a year-over-year…

Headlines:

• Trump successfully capped the upside in oil, raising market hopes for an end to the war
• Oil holds near the lows for the week though the drums of war continue to beat
• US futures push higher so far today, technical breakdown on hold for now
• Gold recovers some ground as hopes for the end of the US-Iran war drive prices higher
• Iran's ambassador to Pakistan reaffirms that there was no talks between US and Iran
• Japan reportedly calls on IEA to coordinate release of additional oil stockpile
• ECB president Lagarde: Monetary policy cannot bring down energy prices
• ECB's Lane: We will be considering at every meeting what the scenario is
• Germany March Ifo business climate index 86.4 vs 86.1 expected
• UK February CPI +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y…

• Prior 88.6; revised to 88.4
• Current conditions 86.7 vs 86.0 expected
• Prior 86.7
• Expectations 86.0 vs 86.0 expected
• Prior 90.5; revised to 90.2

German business sentiment falls in March and that is not all too surprising considering the Middle East developments. The outlook/expectations index also dips back lower, falling to its weakest since February 2025. That as higher energy prices are going to have a material impact on the manufacturing side of things. And we're already seeing early evidence of that from the PMI data this week via input cost inflation.

That's going to be a worrying signal for the German economy, especially now that this may very well dash the recovery in the manufacturing sector over the last few months.

Coming into this…

• There have been no talks between the US and Iran, either directly or indirectly
• Friendly countries like Pakistan are seeking to lay the groundwork for dialogue between Tehran and Washington
• Hopes that these efforts could help in ending the war

The comments here are coming after a report that two Pakistani officials told the AP that Iran has received the 15-point US ceasefire proposal. However, there's no word on how they are viewing the proposal and if they will be in agreement to that.

So far, there continues to be a lot of "he said, she said" kind of thing between the US and Iran.

As mentioned in the past few days, I don't doubt that there is some form of contact between the two countries. And even if not, it is clear that we are moving on…