Market News

There is non-stop talk of insider trading in markets, including a viral report about how volumes in stock and oil futures surged minutes before Trump's post about talks with Iran.

At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume and then at 7:05 am, Trump posted the announcement.

Now that story got plenty of attention but one that hit at nearly the same time: The enforcement chief of the SEC quit abruptly after just six months on the job because she wanted to go after insider trading.

Two of the people said Ryan wanted to be more aggressive in pursuing charges for fraud and other misconduct including in cases that touched the president's circle, but faced resistance…

• Prior was -10
• Services +9 vs -8 prior
• Manufacturing shipments -2 vs -13 prior

This is a nice bounce and the zero reading on the headline is the best since February 2025.

Current Conditions:

• Shipments: -2 vs -13 prior

• New Orders: +4 vs -9 prior

• Employment: -2 vs -7 prior

• Backlog of Orders: -10 vs -14 prior

• Capacity Utilization: -5 vs -12 prior

• Vendor Lead Time: +13 vs -1 prior

• Local Business Conditions: -5 vs -15 prior

• Capital Expenditures: -6 vs -5 prior

• Finished Goods Inventories: +5 vs +7 prior

• Raw Materials Inventories: +4 vs +11 prior

• Equipment & Software Spending: -8 vs -8 prior

• Services Expenditures: -14 vs -20 prior

• Wages: +14 vs +18 prior

• Availability of Skills Needed: -12 vs -15 prior

Price Trends (12-month % change):

• Prices Paid: 6.11% vs 6.52% prior

• <p…

• Services reading the lowest since April 2025
• Prior was 51.2
• Manufacturing 52.4 vs 51.3expected
• Prior manufacturing was 52.2
• Composite 51.4 vs 52.3 prior
• Employment fell for the first time in over a year
• Companies’ expectations for output in the year ahead deteriorated slightly in March
• Slower growth and falling orders, especially in terms of exports, were commonly blamed on subdued confidence among both consumer and business
• Prices paid for inputs meanwhile spiked higher

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“The flash PMI survey data for March signal an unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Companies are reporting a hit to demand from…

• Ready to act against inflationary pressures stemming from developments in the Middle East to deliver price stability over the medium term
• Task of mon pol is to provide clarity on the pursuit of price stability
• Upside risks to price stability mounting due to the events in the gulf

Current market pricing is for 69 bps of rate hikes this year with an 80% chance of the first hike coming on April 30. I see that date as an advantageous one for the BOE because if the Iran war is resolved by then, they can wait, if not they can act.

Cable bounced yesterday but is down 50 pips to 1.3373 today. The pound is relatively stable since the start of the war but it's a country that imports a lot of energy.

This article was written…

It's impossible to decide who to believe and trust right now.

Trading feels like an impossible battle of fighting the propaganda departments of Iran, the USA and Israel. Trump himself is a shameless information manipulator and this entire war was started during the same kind of 'talks' that are supposedly going on now. On the Iran side, it's entirely unclear who is in charge and officials everywhere have claimed Mojtaba Khamenei is either dead or badly injured.

Yet we're supposed to believe a report in an Israeli newspaper -- citing unnamed sources -- that he approved negotiations with the US to end the war?

At the same time, Trump delayed a self-imposed 48 hour deadline that he set. But the deadline was set while negotiations had already…

• Prior was +2.8%
• Productivity +1.8% vs +2.0% expected (lowest since Q1 2025)
• Prior productivity +2.8%

These numbers are very tough to draw conclusions from. There is so much variance in quarterly unit costs and productivity that the trend isn't clear until years later. On the surface, we got weaker productivity and higher labor inflation than anticipated. The Fed isn't likely to be influenced by this report.

The Q4 productivity and unit labor cost data from the BLS landed with a mixed message for Fed watchers in the prelim report released before this.

These numbers are notoriously tough to measure and the revisions can be enormous — we saw that again this cycle with benchmark payroll adjustments lopping off nearly 900K jobs. So take the…

• USDJPY consolidates below the key 160.00 figure as focus turns to US-Iran negotiations
• UK March flash services PMI 51.2 vs 53.0 expected
• Trump wants a deal but negotiations not likely to be successful, says Israeli officials
• Eurozone March flash services PMI 50.1 vs 51.1 expected
• Germany March flash manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs 49.5 expected
• France March flash services PMI 48.3 vs 49.0 expected
• Iran's Supreme Leader reportedly agreed to negotiate with the US and reach an agreement
• The market mood picks up again as we get into European morning trade
• What are the main events for today?
• This oil analysis today at investingLive shows sellers may come out well
• BOJ governor Ueda says underlying inflation is expected to accelerate moderately
• FX option…

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.92%, Shanghai Composite up 0.95% Hang Seng up 1.75% ASX up 0.31%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,371.80 (-1.55%) Silver at $67.050 (-3.45%), Brent Oil at $100.17 (4.42%), WTI Oil at $91.70 (4.07%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.385, UK 10-year yield at 4.9170, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0186

News & Data:

• (USD) Construction Spending m/m  -0.3%  to 0.1%  expected

Markets Update:  

Asia-Pacific markets pared earlier gains on Tuesday as oil prices rebounded, highlighting persistent investor caution over the ongoing Middle East conflict. Brent crude futures for May climbed more than 3.5% to $103.7 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 4% to $91.72, recovering after…

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.92%, Shanghai Composite up 0.95% Hang Seng up 1.75% ASX up 0.31%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,371.80 (-1.55%) Silver at $67.050 (-3.45%), Brent Oil at $100.17 (4.42%), WTI Oil at $91.70 (4.07%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.385, UK 10-year yield at 4.9170, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0186

News & Data:

• (USD) Construction Spending m/m  -0.3%  to 0.1%  expected

Markets Update:  

Asia-Pacific markets pared earlier gains on Tuesday as oil prices rebounded, highlighting persistent investor caution over the ongoing Middle East conflict. Brent crude futures for May climbed more than 3.5% to $103.7 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 4% to $91.72, recovering after…