Market News

• Prior 53.9
• Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 50.1 expected
• Prior 51.7
• Composite PMI 51.0 vs 52.9 expected
• Prior 53.7

Key Findings:

• Input price inflation jumps to its highest for just over three years amid a surge in manufacturing costs

Comment:

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“The war in the Middle East has hit the UK economy in March, stalling growth while driving inflation sharply higher.

“Output growth across manufacturing and services has slowed to a crawl as companies blamed lost business directly on the events in the Middle East, whether through heightened risk aversion among customers, surging price pressures, higher interest rates, or via travel and supply chain disruptions.

“Inflationary pressures…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 24 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session was shaped by stubbornly high oil prices, stagflation‑like growth‑plus‑inflation dynamics, and a cautious central‑bank backdrop, which collectively favoured crude and select safe‑haven assets at the expense of cyclicals, high‑beta equities, and risk‑sensitive currencies.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders face heightened volatility from U.S.-Iran conflict escalation, which has kept oil prices elevated and prompted Wall Street to lower S&P 500 targets amid recession risks from potential energy shocks. Inflation remains sticky after February’s hot producer prices (3.4% YoY), with the Fed holding…

• Prior 51.9
• Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 49.4 expected
• Prior 50.8
• Composite PMI 50.5 vs 51.0 expected
• Prior 51.9

The manufacturing sector is the only bright spot, with Germany leading the recovery in that regard. That being said, manufacturing output was softer than what the main index indicates with it being a two-month low. Meanwhile, the drag in the services sector pretty much brings overall business activity close to stalling with activity there being a ten-month low.

Looking at other details, employment conditions continue to struggle with it falling for a third month running. Staffing levels decreased in Germany and France, while the rest of the euro area posted the weakest rise in employment since November 2023.

Besides that, prices were a…

The Reuters report cites three senior Israeli officials in saying that US president Trump appears to be quite determined in trying to strike a deal with Iran. That as he is aiming to try and end hostilities in the Middle East after the developments in recent weeks.

However, the sources say that they are of the view that Iran is not likely to agree to US demands in any new round of negotiations. That as the US wants Iran to completely curb its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

Well, I would say Israel does have some bias in wanting the conflict to keep carrying on. That allows a pass to get in strikes while hiding behind the cover of Washington, as they are doing currently. And we're also seeing that the Israeli side is not likely…

Markets Rally on Middle East Hope – Dow up 1.4%
Global financial markets experienced one of their most volatile trading sessions of the year overnight, as conflicting updates surrounding developments in the Middle East drove sharp moves across financial products. President Trump advised of progress on a ceasefire, before the Iranians denied any talks had taken place. US equity indices finished the session higher, with the Dow Jones rising 1.38% to close at 46,208, while the S&P 500 gained 1.15% to end at 6,581. The Nasdaq also advanced 1.38%, finishing the day at 21,946. In currency markets, the US dollar ultimately dropped, with the DXY falling 0.38% to 99.13. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, with the 2-year…

Markets Rally on Middle East Hope – Dow up 1.4%
Global financial markets experienced one of their most volatile trading sessions of the year overnight, as conflicting updates surrounding developments in the Middle East drove sharp moves across financial products. President Trump advised of progress on a ceasefire, before the Iranians denied any talks had taken place. US equity indices finished the session higher, with the Dow Jones rising 1.38% to close at 46,208, while the S&P 500 gained 1.15% to end at 6,581. The Nasdaq also advanced 1.38%, finishing the day at 21,946. In currency markets, the US dollar ultimately dropped, with the DXY falling 0.38% to 99.13. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, with the 2-year…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the US session on March 23, 2026, markets reacted to unexpectedly weak January construction spending (-0.3% MoM), reinforcing slowdown concerns from shutdowns and tariffs, while President Trump’s de-escalatory comments on Iran talks triggered a 9% oil price plunge (WTI to $89/bbl), boosting energy stocks in premarket but capping broader equity rebounds amid Fed’s steady rates and geopolitical overhang; crude oil, energy equities (e.g., LNG, APA), S&P 500 futures, and USD were most impacted.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should prioritize early Japanese industrial production figures for yen direction, monitor…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the US session on March 23, 2026, markets reacted to unexpectedly weak January construction spending (-0.3% MoM), reinforcing slowdown concerns from shutdowns and tariffs, while President Trump’s de-escalatory comments on Iran talks triggered a 9% oil price plunge (WTI to $89/bbl), boosting energy stocks in premarket but capping broader equity rebounds amid Fed’s steady rates and geopolitical overhang; crude oil, energy equities (e.g., LNG, APA), S&P 500 futures, and USD were most impacted.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should prioritize early Japanese industrial production figures for yen direction, monitor…

• Prior 50.9
• Services PMI 51.2 vs 52.5 expected
• Prior 53.5
• Composite PMI 51.9 vs 52.0 expected
• Prior 53.2

I would ignore the headline figures as they don't reflect the real picture. The commentary is clearly pointing to stagflationary pressures from the US-Iran war and the longer it persists, the worse the negative impact on the economy will be.

Key Points:

• Business activity growth slows as costs spike higher in March

Comment:

Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“March's flash data show the first impacts of the war in the Middle East on growth, demand, business confidence and, perhaps most notably, prices.

"The service sector has seen an immediate negative impact. Growth in business activity has slowed sharply…

• Prior 49.6
• Manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 49.5 expected
• Prior 50.1
• Composite PMI 48.3 vs 49.3 expected
• Prior 49.9

It's not a good look for France's economy at the end of Q1 with business activity slumping to a five-month low. The services sector was the main drag, also seeing its weakest showing in five months as it falls further into contraction territory. While manufacturing activity was a two-month high, it belies the underlying performance of the sector with output falling to a four-month low.

Amid higher energy prices, a key focus of the report is on prices. And we're already seeing evidence of the Middle East crisis having an impact with input cost inflation accelerating sharply to its strongest since November 2023. That in particular for the…

Al Arabiya reports that sources to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's largest paid newspaper, said that Iran's foreign minister Araghchi secretely informed Netanyahu of Mojtaba Khamenei's approval for negotiations and that the Supreme Leader has agreed to negotiate with the US and reach an agreement.

This would be in line with what Trump has claimed yesterday but given the mixed messages, everyone is still taking these reports with a pinch of salt.

There's also this ominous news that the additional US worships and thousands of Marines are expected to arrive in the Middle East on Friday, which is the deadline of Trump's ceasefire for negotiations.

So, everyone's asking if we got the real TACO yesterday or it was just the usual jawboning strategy to…