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The dollar has seen gains ease while US futures have swung back into positive territory now. The latest reported rumour comes from Al Arabiya, in citing their sources to say that incumbent Iran leader Mojtaba Khamenei has agreed to negotiate with the US on an agreement. So, that's putting a little bit more of a positive spin on the mood currently.

S&P 500 futures have turned losses to flat, with gradual gains even before the headline. Meanwhile, the dollar has lost some ground with EUR/USD climbing back to 1.1600 on the day. Meanwhile, gold has also trimmed declines to be flat at $4,403 and silver is now up 0.4% to $69.45 from lows near $66 at the end of Asia trading.

In the oil market, we're still seeing WTI crude be up over 2% to $90.81…

This is scheduled to begin on 26 March, so the Japanese government is mainly offering confirmation on the total figure. As a reminder, Japan had already released about 15 days' worth of reserves from the private sector on 16 March. So, this just adds to that and the total will be roughly 80 million barrels.

And all of this also ties together with the IEA coordination to release a total of 400 million barrels globally.

The Japanese government confirms that the crude oil reserves release here will be from 11 locations nationwide.

As another reminder, Japan has a massive buffer in terms of oil in its reserve capacity heading into this crisis. They had around 254 days' worth of oil and such a buffer looks to be well warranted in this kind of…

The early moves today are a pullback to what we saw in trading yesterday. Oil prices are up and so are Treasury yields, which in turn are weighing on equities and precious metals again. And in the major currencies space, the dollar is once again creeping higher across the board.

Putting aside all the noise about whether or not there were talks between the US and Iran, it is clear that Trump has signaled that we might just be entering a new phase in the conflict. We've seen this playbook by him before. It is the exact same thing that he stuck with when dealing with China on trade/tariffs.

It's all the same kind of words being used. "I didn't call, they called". "Talks were very good and very productive". "They want to make a deal".

Knowing…

A bit of an update, with Kpler's intel source Amena Bakr reporting on the matter. She says that "a number of LPG vessels crossed the strait yesterday and headed towards India". Adding that "the strait is not closed, but the passage of vessels is tightly controlled by Iran and vessels need to seek permission before passing".

I don't believe that's much of a change in the prevailing narrative. The Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure and there are no commercial vessels really willing to take up the risk to try and cross it. That unless one is able to get some assurance from Iran, and it seems like only India (and arguably China) to a certain extent has been able to.

Otherwise, any other ships with intended destinations elsewhere will…

• Australian inflation data due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview.
• WSJ: Gulf states edge toward war with Iran as Saudi signals imminent entry
• Central banks seen sustaining gold demand amid geopolitics and dedollarisation
• Japan core inflation slips below target as subsidies mask underlying price pressures
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8943
• Japan March 2026 flash PMI slows as growth momentum cools and cost pressures rise
• EU and Australia strike trade deal slashing tariffs, boosting exports and ties
• Iran's Fars report gas infrastructure hit as conflict broadens to energy assets
• Japan core CPI moderates in February
• Deutsche Bank sees ECB hiking to 2.5% as energy shock lifts inflation
• RBNZ’s Breman flags near-term inflation rise, warns…

• Australian inflation data due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview.
• WSJ: Gulf states edge toward war with Iran as Saudi signals imminent entry
• Central banks seen sustaining gold demand amid geopolitics and dedollarisation
• Japan core inflation slips below target as subsidies mask underlying price pressures
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8943
• Japan March 2026 flash PMI slows as growth momentum cools and cost pressures rise
• EU and Australia strike trade deal slashing tariffs, boosting exports and ties
• Iran's Fars report gas infrastructure hit as conflict broadens to energy assets
• Japan core CPI moderates in February
• Deutsche Bank sees ECB hiking to 2.5% as energy shock lifts inflation
• RBNZ’s Breman flags near-term inflation rise, warns…

Japan’s flash PMI shows continued expansion but with clear signs of slowing growth and rising cost pressures.

Summary:

• Japan flash composite PMI slows to 52.5 (Feb: 53.9)
• Services activity eases to 52.8 (Feb: 53.8)
• Manufacturing PMI drops to 51.4 (Feb: 53.0)
• Manufacturing output slows to 51.8 (Feb: 54.2)
• New orders growth weakens to slowest in three months
• Input costs rise at fastest pace in 11 months
• Business confidence slips to near one-year low
• Growth remains intact but momentum clearly softening

Japan’s private sector continued to expand in March, but at a slower pace, as both manufacturing and services activity lost momentum amid rising cost pressures and growing geopolitical uncertainty.

According to preliminary S&P Global…

EU and Australia struck a major trade deal removing most tariffs and expanding market access, alongside a new security partnership.

Summary:

• EU and Australia agree landmark free trade deal and broader partnership
• Over 99% of tariffs on EU exports removed, saving ~€1bn annually
• 98% of Australian exports by value to enter EU duty free
• EU exports to Australia projected to rise up to 33% over 10 years
• Australia to remove tariffs on EU wine, fruit, vegetables and chocolate
• Tariffs lowered on EU imports of Australian critical minerals
• 55% of Australian beef duty free, remainder at 7.5% tariff
• Deal accompanied by new EU-Australia security and defence partnership

The European Union and Australia have reached agreement on a comprehensive free…

Japan inflation data for February 2026.

Earlier:

• February Tokyo data showed underlying price pressures moderating

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Australia’s flash PMI shows a return to contraction, with services-led weakness and surging cost pressures highlighting a stagflationary backdrop.

Summary:

• Flash Australia composite PMI falls to 47.0 (Feb: 52.4) → first contraction in 18 months
• Services activity drops sharply to 46.6 (Feb: 52.8) → first decline in over two years
• Manufacturing PMI eases to 50.1 (Feb: 51.0), while output remains subdued at 49.8 (Feb: 49.6)
• Demand weakens, with new orders falling for first time since July 2024
• Input cost inflation jumps to highest in over three years
• Selling prices rise at fastest pace since August 2023
• Business confidence drops to a 20-month low amid Middle East uncertainty

Australia’s private sector slipped back into contraction in…

Japan’s national inflation data for February is due later today, with the release expected to mirror the softer tone seen in the Tokyo CPI figures earlier in the month. The Tokyo data showed underlying price pressures moderating, with core inflation slipping back below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. This has reinforced the near-term case for maintaining current policy settings, even as the central bank continues to signal a tightening bias over the medium term.

The moderation in inflation was largely driven by renewed government subsidies aimed at reducing electricity and heating costs, which have temporarily dampened energy prices. In addition, price pressures in processed food categories have shown signs of easing after a prolonged…

• Doubline's Gundlach: No terribly enthusiastic about credit markets or stocks at this time.
• Ominous: Thousands of US Marines are slated to arrive in the Middle East on Friday
• Oil plunges as Iran tensions ease. Crude oil futures settle at $88.13
• Netanyahu spoke with Trump: Says war achievements can be leveraged into deal
• Markets tentatively embrace Trump's claims that a peace deal is likely
• Trump: Discussions with Iran to determine whether broader agreement can be reached
• Goldman Sachs raises its US recession probability
• Iran parliamentary speaker: No negotiations have been held with the US
• Iran foreign ministry: Conditions to end the war did not change
• Gold moved to the lowest level since November, testing a key MA before bouncing.What next?
• US…