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US equity futures were deeply negative in the pre-market but spiked higher after Trump posted that he had postponed attacks on energy infrastructure for five days amid peace negotiations. The enthusiasm was tempered after Iran denied talks and the rest of the day was a non-stop series of conflicting headlines about the likelihood of a peace deal.

In general, the day ended with cautious optimism and stocks solid higher though well off the highs of the day.

• S&P 500 +1.1%
• Nasdaq +1.4%
• Russell 2000 +2.3%
• Toronto TSX Comp +1.8%
• DJIA +1.4%

The candle on the S&P 500 isn't the most-attractive one but we will see what tomorrow brings.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Gold was so wildly overdue for a correction.
• I think it is a very good opportunity to gold, commodities at this level
• Our inflaiton model shows we are heading to 3.5% inflation
• I don't think we will get a hike with the current structure
• The private credit market remain very murky
• I don't think investors should be calling for a rate cut.
• The market is in a reevaluation phase
• I don't think the Fed will hike rates, and I certainly don't think they will cut rates at the next meeting
• Not terribly enthusiastic about credit market or stocks at this.
• Would like to see the VIX move higher before buying stocks.

Jeffrey Gundlach is a prominent American investor and bond manager, widely known as the “Bond King” and the founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital.…

In the lead-up to the war in Iran, there were all kinds of conflicting signals about what was coming. It was confusing and much of it was designed to misdirect. Evidently it worked as Iran's leaders met to discuss negotiations and the US/Israel used that to kill them.

When I look back at the signs, the giveaway that a war was coming was the relentless and obvious build up of US military hardware in the region beforehand, including aircraft carriers. That looked like possible gunboat diplomacy but it wasn't, it was straight-up positioning for war.

So what irks me about the marines heading to the area is that we could be repeating the same mistake. Initial reports suggested they would arrive around Tuesday but that was based on a spotting of…

• Says he spoke with Trump
• Says Trump believes war achievements can be leveraged into a deal with Iran
• Says any deal will preserve 'our vital interests'

I'm sort of at the point in this conflict where I don't trust any of the 'sources' reports coming out of anywhere. But at least with comments directly from Trump and Netanyahu, you can get a sense of how things are changing. Bibi was really hammering the war drums early last week but he's eased up and now he's talking about a deal and not in maximalist terms either.

From Trump's early-morning statement, a couple things also stand out:

I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS…

• Discussions with Iran to determine whether broader agreement can be reached.
• This time around means business.
• They want to settle. We've eliminated everything there is to eliminate in Iran including leaders.
• Iran has one more opportunity to an threats to America. The world will be much safer soon.
• We are now having really good discussions with Iran.
• Discussions a started on Saturday night.
• Iran wants peace, agreed they will not have nuclear weapon.
• Very good chance of a deal with Iran.
• Will give them 5 days.
• To Republicans don't make a deal on anything. No deal without voter ID law.
• We will bring out National Guard where we needed.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Discussions with Iran to determine whether broader agreement can be reached.
• This time around means business.
• They want to settle. We've eliminated everything there is to eliminate in Iran including leaders.
• Iran has one more opportunity to an threats to America. The world will be much safer soon.
• We are now having really good discussions with Iran.
• Discussions a started on Saturday night.
• Iran wants peace, agreed they will not have nuclear weapon.
• Very good chance of a deal with Iran.
• Will give them 5 days.
• To Republicans don't make a deal on anything. No deal without voter ID law.
• We will bring out National Guard where we needed.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Jerusalem Post (and later others) said that Iran's parliamentary speaker was the one doing negotiations.

He's taken to twitter to say this (in English):

Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors. All Irainan officials stand firmly behind their supreme leader and people until this goal is achieved. No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.

Now we can take this all at face value or:

1) He's not negotiating directly with the US, as some have claimed but is speaking via Pakistan, Turkey and other intermediaries

2) He's lying because it's unpopular (and dangerous) in Iran to be seen…

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is reportedly the person doing the negotiations with the White House about ending the war but the foreign ministry is denying it. They say they've had no talks with the US.

It's hard to know who is telling the truth in any of this. Trump said that communications in the country are disrupted so that could be part of the issue.

Right now the market is fairly optimistic on all of it but every day the market is going to want to see some signs of progress or at least constructive dialogue. Iran's IRGC has also promised a fresh military surprise in the day ahead, though that kind of talk is often hollow.

We're deep into the fog of war at this point but I think we can safely conclude that Trump…

The market is further coming around to the conclusion that peace talks are taking place, or that even if they're not -- Trump wants the bombs to stop falling and oil prices to come down.

There is always the risk that Iran wants to keep the Strait closed and press for a better deal but the US has the power to kill leadership and that's a powerful motivator to make a deal.

Whatever the driver, the S&P 500 is up 2% to a session high, or 134 points to 6639.

Other markets:

• Nasdaq +2.3%
• Russell 2000 +3.0%
• DJIA +2.1%
• Toronto TSX +1.8%

The winners today are led by travel stocks and those who are heavy users of fuel, including miners along with housing-related stocks due ot a falling likelihood of rate hikes. There is also the unwinding of the recession…

• Prior was +0.3%

The US Census Bureau released its monthly construction spending report on February 27, 2026, covering data through December 2025. The release was delayed from its original schedule due to the 43-day government shutdown in late 2025.

Construction spending in December 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,168.8 billion, up 0.3% from November's $2,163.1 billion. This marked the first monthly increase after three consecutive months of declines. Despite the uptick, the December figure was 0.4% below the year-ago level, and full-year 2025 spending totaled $2,164.4 billion, down 1.4% from $2,194.8 billion in 2024.

The monthly gain was driven by a rebound in single-family homebuilding and continued strength in…

Comments from Trump:

"We have had very, very strong talks. We'll see where they lead. We have major points of agreement... They went, I would say perfectly. I would say that if they carry through with that, it'll end that problem, that conflict."

• On the possibility of troops: We don't talk strategy
• I don't think Iran is getting any oil money
• I want to have as much oil in the system as possible
• It's very easy to take enriched uranium ourselves if we have a deal
• US talked to Iranian top respected leader
• Talk to top leadership
• Hope to meet with Iran soon
• Will talk today probably by phone
• They want to make a deal, we want to make a deal too
• If Iran carries through, will end the conflict
• I think Iran was an imminent threat

Iran would have had a nuclear…

• Deal with Iran could be in 5 days or sooner
• Not sure what Iran's media is talking about (regarding no talks)
• Talks with Witkoff, Kishner and their counterparts

The market likes what its hearing and is willing to bet on a deal.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.