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From Axios reporter Barak Ravid:

Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan have been passing messages between the U.S. and Iran over the past two days in an effort to de-escalate, U.S. source saysSenior officials from the three countries held separate talks with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the U.S. source says"The mediation is ongoing and making progress. The discussion is about ending the war and resolving all outstanding issues. We hope to have answers soon," the source says

I tend to think Ravid as a mouthpiece for the White House in this war.

The important thing here is that he's trying to establish that there were actually talks. That said, it doesn't really push back on the idea that others contacted…

Headlines:

• Big turn in markets as Trump delivers another TACO moment
• Risk appetite returns with a bang as Trump trades missiles for peace talks
• Iran media reportedly says there has been no direct or indirect contact with Trump
• UAE resumes operations at its largest gas processing facility after shutdown last week
• ECB's Kazimir: Will not hesitate to act if inflation was at risk of staying above target
• Japan's largest union group Rengo sees average wage hike of 5.26% this fiscal year

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down 5% to $92.97 currently, after falling from $100 to $84 on the headlines
• US 10-year Treasury yields down 1 bps to 4.38% currently, after falling from 4.44% to 4.31%
• S&P 500 futures rebound strongly to be up 1.3% on the day, was as low as down 1%…

Iran's Tasnim news agency reaffirms that "there are no talks", adding that US president Trump's latest comments on the Middle East situation are all part of "psychological warfare". That as the outlet cites a senior Iranian security official. At the same time, the official says that the Strait of Hormuz "will not return to pre-war conditions" so long as this "psychological warfare" continues.

At the same time, we're also getting headlines now that Israel is conducting strikes in the heart of Tehran. So, is there really any material de-escalation?

Besides that, Iran's foreign ministry is also stating that there have been no talks with Washington and is accusing Trump of buying time in a bid to allow regional de-escalation efforts to…

Iran's local media is not offering any confirmation to Trump's comments it would seem. This via key energy market correspondent and head of Kpler's energy market and OPEC+ intel, Amena Bakr, on Twitter/X. She is a well reputable source in the oil market for all things, so just be aware of the situation here. The tweet:

"IRANIAN MEDIA SAYS THERE WAS NO DIRECT OR INDIRECT CONTACT WITH TRUMP AND CLAIMS HE WITHDREW AFTER THREATENING TO ATTACK WEST ASIA ENERGY FACILITIES."

So yeah, who's telling the truth here?

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

You have to wonder, what was the past three weeks all for then? US president Trump is now saying that they've had "very good and productive" talks with Iran to put an end to all hostilities in the Middle East. And that there will be a ceasefire of sorts now for a period of five days as negotiations continue during this time period.

It is pretty clear that we've reached a threshold where Trump no longer has the appetite to keep the war going. Or at least not in a way that was in the last few weeks. Right from the start, it already led to all the things he did not like whatsoever in markets. As mentioned at the time, it had everything on the list:

1. Higher oil prices ✔
2. Lower stock market ✔
3. Weaker conviction by the Fed to cut rates amid inflation…

From the man himself:

"I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP"

What a complete turnaround in market sentiment to what we're…

Trump is lamenting the lack of help in reopening Hormuz:

Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn't want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don't want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military manoeuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMP

There is some generally good news here:

1) The US appears to be willing to do it alone

2) Trump sounds confident it can be done

3) He sounds ready to declare victory

So despite all the unfriendly rhetoric here, this is a…

According to Bloomberg, the UAE has restarted operations at its biggest natural gas processing plant i.e. Habshan Complex after having closed down the facility last week due to Iran's attacks. That at least according to a person familiar with the situation.

That being said, the only operating LNG production plant in the country at Das Island continues to be in more or less idle state. That as shipping along the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and the UAE cannot export its natural gas out at the moment. And the only reason why it is in idle state i.e. operating at low levels is so that it can allow for a quick restart if and when the strait eventually opens.

For now, the Habshan Complex's processing facility and fuel from Qatar via the…

For some context, the fiscal year 2025 preliminary figure was 5.46%. That was then watered down to 5.25% once we got the final confirmation of the exact average wage hike. It is a normal practice for that to happen, so expect more of the same this time around too. As such, this preliminary 5.26% will be much softer even if it is showing that it is higher than the 5.25% final figure from fiscal year 2025.

As a reminder, the average wage hike in 2023 was 3.80%. And in 2024, it was 5.10% before the 5.25% figure in 2025.

Overall, it's still a strong number relative to what we have seen in the past from Japan. And this makes it three straight fiscal years now that the average wage hike has come above 5%. That in my view and surely to many, is…

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have come out to say that they will be "determined to respond to any threat at the same level as it creates in terms of deterrence". Adding that if the US decides to "hit electricity, then we will hit electricity". And if the US plans attacks on power plants, then Iran will respond by striking Israel's power plants and regional facilities that supply electricity to US bases.

This of course is a response to US president Trump's warning over the weekend. Trump delivered a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on Saturday, calling for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. And if not, he will order the US military to "hit and obliterate" Iran's power plants - starting with "the biggest one first".

He didn't…

It's a brand new week but the main focus in markets stay on the Middle East. The US-Iran conflict drags on further and the latest development is that US president Trump delivered a warning over the weekend for Iran to "reopen" the Strait of Hormuz. Trump gave a 48-hour ultimatum, which will run its course late in the day today.

Iran has so far responded that they will not back down and are willing to escalate things further. So, that's leaving us to where we are now as the crisis in the region extends. As we go on longer, higher oil prices continue to become more entrenched for global economies and restarting the normalisation process in energy market itself will take a much longer time.

In turn, inflation fears will just continue to boil…