Market News

One of the ideas that's been floating around markets is that Trump just wanted to dramatically degrade Iran's military, it's nuclear program and its ability to make missiles. Once that was done, he would declare victory and leave it to Europe and gulf states on how to open the Strait of Hormuz. It was never clear if Iran would have accepted that but it was a possibility they would say "ok, enough, we'll live to fight another day."

Now, it looks like that's off the table and instead Trump has committed the US military to reopen Hormuz, with little help from allies. He said it would be easy but markets aren't so sure, and it also could be time consuming. Trump called it "a simple military maneuver" with "so little risk".

If that's true, it's…

Oft times, there are implications to actions. The Trump administration tends to look to solve problems with laser focus that goes above and beyond without thinking of the consequences.

The ICE/deportation implementation is an example. That is being clawed back.

The War against Iran is another major situation. Who knows what they thought how everything was going to work out - they will never tell the truth. What we do know is the pattern is that solving "the problems" (parenthetical) tend to create more problems.

Trump is now imploring Congress to pass the FARM BILL, NOW!

Why?

Fertilizer prices are rising due to the war in Iran as supply disruptions, higher energy costs, and shipping constraints hit the market simultaneously. The…

Trump is lamenting the lack of help in reopening Hormuz:

Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn't want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don't want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMP

There is some generally good news here:

1) The US appears to be willing to do it alone

2) Trump sounds confident it can be done

3) He sounds ready to declare victory

So despite all the unfriendly rhetoric here, this is a…

Oft times, there are implications to actions. The Trump administration tends to look to solve problems with laser focus that goes above and beyond without thinking of the consequences.

The ICE/deportation implementation is an example. That is being clawed back.

The War against Iran is another major situation. Who knows what they thought how everything was going to work out - they will never tell the truth. What we do know is the pattern is that solving "the problems" (parenthetical) tend to create more problems.

Trump is now imploring Congress to pass the FARM BILL, NOW!

Why?

Fertilizer prices are rising due to the war in Iran as supply disruptions, higher energy costs, and shipping constraints hit the market simultaneously. The…

Trump is lamenting the lack of help in reopening Hormuz:

Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn't want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don't want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMP

There is some generally good news here:

1) The US appears to be willing to do it alone

2) Trump sounds confident it can be done

3) He sounds ready to declare victory

So despite all the unfriendly rhetoric here, this is a…

• If oil stays high for months on and at some point it leads into core inflation.
• A high and persistent oil shock would not have a transitory impact on inflation.
• Based on the jobs report was planning to dissent, but since then inflation has become more of a concern
• Zero job growth does not seem normal, but that is what the math may indicate will keep the unemployment rate stable
• Fed cannot look through a large and persistent will shock, at this point caution for the Fed is warranted.
• Wants to wait and see how this evolves before deciding on rate cuts for later this year.
• Fed is making progress on taming structural inflation, which may be close to 2% now but is held higher by tariffs.
• Do not think there is a need to consider rate hikes.
• Inflation…

• Prior was -0.4%
• Ex autos +0.8% vs +1.2% expected
• Prior ex autos +0.1% (revised to 0.0%)
• Advance February sales +0.9%
• Sales hit $70.7 billion in January
• Sales ex autos and gas +0.9%

The advance reading tends to be the better signal in this report and the number for February is strong. As for January, vehicles rose 2.0% led by new car dealers. In terms of the core, general merchandise retailers (+3.0%) rose for a fourth month while food and beverage retailers fell 0.6%. Ecommerce sales rose 1.5%.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Prior was +2.7%

• PPI y/y +5.4% vs +5.4% prior
• Raw materials price index +0.6% m/m vs +7.7% prior
• Raw materials price index +8.6% y/y vs +8.0% prior

Normally, the Bank of Canada would give a lower reading like this some attention but with energy prices spiking, that won't be the case this year and instead they will wait for March data and to see what will happen with the war.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Dollar recoups some losses on the day, eyes stay on the Middle East ahead of the weekend
• US stocks with their backs against the wall in the final stretch of the week
• Trump reportedly mulls occupying Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
• EU leaders make the rare choice of appointing ​Vujčić as next ECB vice president
• ECB hawk says will need to consider April rate hike if inflation outlook sours further
• ECB policymaker Villeroy: Potential rate hikes will be decided meeting by meeting

Markets:

• Brent crude oil up 0.5% to $108.17, WTI crude oil up 0.3% to $94.93
• CAD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European indices set to end the week lower, S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
• Gold up 0.3% to $4,662, Silver down 1% to $72.20
• US 10-year yields…

Axios reports on the matter, saying that US president Trump is considering plans to take over Iran's Kharg Island so as to use it as a bargaining chip to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That according to four sources with knowledge of the issue.

The sources note that:

"He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that's going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that's going to happen. But that decision hasn't been made."

"We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations."

For some context, Kharg Island can somewhat be referred to as Iran's own "Crown Jewel". Almost all of Iran’s oil (roughly…

HFM, a leading online trading platform, today announces a new multi-year partnership with Arsenal, becoming an Official Global Partner of the club.

The agreement brings together two international brands defined by performance and ambition, united by a shared commitment to long-term success. As HFM continues to expand its global presence, the partnership provides a platform to elevate its brand presence worldwide and engage with Arsenal supporters across the globe.

As an Official Partner, HFM will benefit from an extensive global rights package, including matchday branding at Emirates Stadiumand visibility on Arsenal’s digital platforms, including the recently launched The Arsenal. The partnership will also provide access to club marketing…